Arctic Hare
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Posts posted by Arctic Hare
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davehsug There are daffs out (fully out, at that) on a small green area near me in Bewdley. Admittedly a very sheltered location, a sunny patch by a thick hedge, but even so it's not the norm for them to be out in mid-February.
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1 hour ago, SollyOlly said:
I was away for a few days this month, but is it accurate that we haven't had many/ any frosts so far, either...? In February, of all months!
Can't speak for everywhere, but that's been the case here. A couple of nights down to a degree or two, enough for ice to form on car windscreens, but I don't think any actually below zero.
I really am starting to get seriously worried about the sheer persistence of wet months. Sure, we've had bad floods in summer before, 2007 being the obvious example, but there just seems no respite. As you say, it just never seems to get properly dry, at best we have a couple of days like Sun/Mon just gone before the rain factory starts up again. Today was nice until midday, okay-ish for the next 2-3 hours, then gloomy and wet and miserable. Again.
If the modern "stuck in a rut" syndrome could maybe bring us half a dozen dry months in a row, that would be fantastic. Please, oh weather gods?
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Now drizzling here in N Worcs. The day has really gone downhill after such a good start.
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Was lovely up until lunchtime, but cloud has hit what could have been a genuinely warm afternoon. Now overcast and just slightly gloomy, though not in the "rain on the cards" way at least.
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Currently 15.1 °C, and with the sun out (for once!) and light winds it does actually feel quite springlike this morning.
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cheese Tea-leconnections?
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As I bore everyone to death by constantly banging on about, if it's *dry* this spring I'm less fussed about the temperature, within reason. I would like some sunshine, though. My ideal would be a warm, dry spring rather than a hot summer, since especially later in the summer I don't really like serious heatwaves as the humidity tends to go through the roof. 20 °C on Easter Day (31 March) would be quite a lot more to my liking than 40 °C in late July!
Edit: though admittedly the extreme 2022 heatwave was surprisingly bearable to be out in because humidity was very low.
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Normal service has indeed been resumed! The bright morning the MetO predicted has not happened, with the rain arriving several hours earlier than forecast. Once again, short-term rain forecasting is really quite noticeably poor even nine hours out. I'm aware it's a very hard thing to forecast, but improving this would be much more useful to many more people than having a six-day forecast be as good as a five-day one.
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It has been a very pleasant day, with a decent amount of sunshine (for once) and yet still enough of a nip in the air to remind us that it's still winter. I could get used to conditions like this! Not that I will, since it's back to murk and damp tomorrow, but at least there's been a bit of a respite and so the river is now on its way down.
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43 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:
Really looks like this month might challenge 2020 for worst February of my lifetime, the rate things are going.
I will accept that if, and only if, we get a repeat of spring 2020 with days on end of sunshine and blue skies! Not that in reality I have any choice in the matter, obviously.
But yeah. With month after month of wetter than average conditions, the ground is now so wet that even a moderate amount of rain sends river levels shooting up (as seen in the graph I posted). In terms of risk of any significant flood, rather than one-off exceptional events, I'm struggling to remember a worse time. Even the 2007 floods, though undeniably extreme, were confined to a couple of months.
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Here we go again... the flood barriers are going up in Bewdley for about the fifth time this winter - I've lost count tbh. Can we please, please have a drier than average month, not just a few days?
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49 minutes ago, reef said:
Indeed, we had 70 hours here in January compared to the 1991-2020 average of 61 hours. However the issue was that 37 hours of that came in the 5 day period mid-month.
Absolutely, it's one of those times where the overall monthly figure can be a tad misleading. It certainly didn't feel like a sunny January overall, at least where I am.
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The expected foul morning here: 3.6 °C and steady moderate rain. I suppose there may have been a "sleet flake" or two before dawn! Always look on the bright side of life, etc etc.
Though the Severn is rising fairly fast again. Currently projected to top out around 3 metres, which won't cause problems with a reasonably dry week hopefully. Always look etc etc again!
Mind you, anyone who wants a cool, wet spring, I'd advise not standing near me when you say it.
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Bar a big surprise, I expect tomorrow to be an utterly dire day here in lowland Worcestershire. Cold rain, perhaps sleety, pretty much the entire day. Bring on spring!
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As long as trains are running on Saturday, I'd love to see a thin blanket of snow glistening in the sun! Much nicer than hours of cold rain, certainly. Anything sufficient to still disrupt the transport that day would be a total disaster for me personally, so oddly enough it would make my winter *worse*, not better! I appreciate that's just me, though. As I say, my own ideal would be a nice sunny winter wonderland but not too much to stop transport. That would be perfect.
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Would be just my luck if it was really snowy on 9th/10th... the 10th is the one day this month I really need to travel, to see friends I haven't seen for ages and won't have another chance for ages! So sorry folks, nope, not joining the "please let it happen" group for this one. Though the 11th would be OK...
Just a pre-emptive whinge that may turn out irrelevant anyway, so clearly one for this moans thread!
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I definitely seem to have flipped early to "let's get to spring" mode this year. I really have little interest in a cold spell in the middle of February this time. A really nice very mild spell (high teens) before month's end would be welcome in these parts, as long as it was a dry one. Ideally with a decent amount of sun as well, of course!
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The wind was really a factor at times today, especially in late afternoon. Not a perishingly cold day for January, but quite a shock to the system! Shame there was so little sunshine. The coming days look supremely dull, in every respect.
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The 19.6 °C is now up on the MetO Twitter as a new provisional high.
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23 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:
Something's not right on the MetO site. I just lookedup Kinlochewe and got this. There is no way it has a high of 27C!
Indeed. That has to wait for February...
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On 22/01/2024 at 21:27, WYorksWeather said:
if we got a holy grail synoptic, like 20C and sunny. I would enjoy that, despite how ludicrously unseasonal it would be.
Yep, me too. Actually if we're going to go there then we might as well do it full-on and break the Feb all-time max. We have 21.2 °C at Kew Gardens in 2019 to beat. The way things have been going in recent years, I suspect it will go this decade even if not this year.
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As with some others, it's increasingly conditions rather than temperature that matter to me. Boxing Day here was lovely: a cold, frosty morning leading into a chilly, sunny day. That's a really nice winter's day to me. I have very little interest in murky wet days at any time of year, regardless of what the thermometer says, especially if they lead to flooding.
These days my favourite season is spring, though we've had rather too much of the cloudy grot in recent years and less of the interesting changes and contrasts that a "traditional" spring contains. In general, by Easter I definitely want warm, sunny weather. Easter is at the end of March this year so 20 °C will be unlikely, but nevertheless I'd like it.
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6 minutes ago, nobble said:
there will be snow on the ground before feb is out
Yeah, but you don't actually say you don't mean in northern Canada...
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I strongly suspect that what will actually happen is a miserable cold, wet spell around Easter (31st March this year) at which point half of NW will do the "If only it was January!" thing. Frankly, give me an Easter of high teens and sunshine over that any day. Now, I don't have any proper evidence that this will happen. It's just what I expect.
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
WRT cloud/dullness, someone (can't remember who, sorry) pointed out that eg Jan this year had a decent sunshine total overall but that a very high proportion of the sunshine hours were concentrated in just a few days mid-month. So the number of reasonably sunny days was actually pretty poor.
Also, I see the consensus from the models at the moment is for yet more dull, wet weather. Which will mean flooding. Why can't that kind of forecast fail totally sometimes, instead of just the "cold nailed on" ones?!?