Jeckers

Yep, thats about how it looked Teesdale

Just been for a walk above Middleton in Teesdale on the hills, was snowing the whole time and accumulating at the tops. Driving back down it seemed to turn back to sleet at about 200m or so. Kids had a great time throwing the first snowballs of the year at me!

Quite a different run from the GFS this afternoon, winds mainly from an Easterly direction from the weekend right through to the end of the run. Under different circumstances with more cold pooling or later in the year this could be quite an interesting run!

Light to moderate snow here for the past hour, everything now white, probably about 1/2cm or so in total the moment. Off to Cotherstone for Sunday lunch so will be interesting to see what it's like a bit further into the hills.

Some very interesting model output for the whole region for next Monday, could be very interesting indeed if that comes off! Still a long way off though but I will be closely watching the outputs from now on!

Just cold sleet showers and sunshine, temp 3°C in Stockton-on-Tees. There was a light covering at home this morning and the wife reports occasional wet snow showers this morning. I'm hoping that it will get a little less marginal as the week progresses - the uppers seem a little colder at times.

Not sure if this is a reasonable suggestion but I was thinking of reasons why runs at different times of the day might have better or worse verification stats as posted above. I assume that exactly the same computer model is used each time and the data input is from the same sources, but I wonder whether the fact that the new data is collected at a different time of the day for each run has some influence which cannot be fully corrected for. Obviously temperatures vary diurnally as well as local wind patterns, maybe the corrections that are applied to account for these or similar factors are not quite sufficient? This may be a complete load of rubbish, feels free to correct me in that case

There seems to be a tendancy to assume that each new model shows the absolute truth hence the total despair or elation expressed all over the thread. I would suggest that it would be better to view each run as another "best guess" at the future evolution but always subject to change right up to T+0. All of the models now show credible evolutions into some sort of cold spell which most people would have been more than happy with last week. I am certainly happy whichever of them works out to be true, nothing wrong with cold/dry weather if you can't get the heavy snow. I do not have the expertise neccessary to say which of these evolutions might be more likely but lets not get so upset and extreme after each new model comes out! I also certainly value the posts from some of the regular posters on here and find some of the unjustified critiscism of them to be unhelpful and quite possibly counterproductive - the forum would be a much poorer place without them.

Went to bed to a light snow flurry last night but not a spot on the ground this morning About 1cm or so in Stockton-on-Tees at work - I thought there would be more looking at the radar last night but I guess the NW wind picked up overnight.

If you look at the latest satellite picture on sat24 there seems to be a fair easterly push coming across the North Sea behind this lot, I wonder if that might help a bit? Not far from Newton Aycliffe here so I'm hoping so. Drive to work in Teeside tomorrow ought to be fun though! Light snow blowing around like crazy here at the mo.