Weathizard
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A truly vile run from the GFS between day 5-10, well.. unless you like wind and rain!
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8 minutes ago, Gowon said:
Don't look so zonal this run, eh?
Ah that old winter pattern, high pressure to our south, high pressure over Asia/Russia with a strong vortex over the GL/Canada area… seems to be a winter pattern that’s extremely common now, leads to Greece and sometimes even extreme parts of turkey getting lying snow, whilst the UK sits in mild air.
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7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
8-10 day range is way too far out to be making any assumptions.
Wouldn't be surprised if the back-track starts with the models.
Been here before at the weekend for the end of the following week and the reality is sometimes totally different. Keep the faith
The reality is when the vortex powers up over Greenland/Canada it’s normally quite reliable, especially as it’s on all the models, given we’ve snatched defeat from the jaws of victory this time it’s hard to see us getting another chance any time soon.
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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:
People are talking like there is no cold spell incoming lol, there is, it's just the end looks a lot quicker than it was, however the end of next week is a long time away in the weather world,so don't think it's a done deal yet. Anyway I expect a few surprise snow chances will appear over the next few days.
There’s a cold spell, 3c daytime temps is undoubtably cold but the reality is comparable to the charts we saw this time last week it’s a disappointing outcome, it’s as rare as hens teeth to see this kind of chart in January and to not even see lying snow in 80%+ of the country from this is extremely disappointing, I think what’s more disheartening is the way the Canadian vortex is returning with merciless aggression, looking at it at day 8-10 range it’s running rampant, which we all know it’s deep trouble if you want cold.
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You have to wonder given the background signals and such how in the name of all that’s holy we go from this astonishing chart to this in 4/5 days… staggering stuff, only the uk would manage not to get a sustained proper nationwide snowy cold spell out of that.
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Once you get cross model agreement on this kind of hemispheric set up it’s goodnight Vienna on any significant blocking or proper cold spell for at least a few weeks, unfortunate given some of the charts we chased this time last week.
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This
to this in 5 days…
Ouch
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Just now, Met4Cast said:
I see the standard over reactions to a single deterministic run are in full force!
Meanwhile MOGREPS 12z continues to make little of the mild incursion next week.
People are just commenting on what we see… this ECM run is woeful, if it showed screaming easterlies everyone would react to that so why shouldn’t people react when it shows dross?
Its been a day of real mixed trends really, for me unless we see a wedge of heights sticking around to our north I struggle to see how the Atlantic doesn’t break through after some initial interaction with cold air.
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Dreadful ECM and I’m afraid indicative of what I was saying earlier, with no blocking or forcing on the Atlantic there is only one way that day 6 chart is heading and it’s Atlantic in charge, albeit not your typical zonal pattern, unfortunately despite all the bizarre hemispheric patterns we’ve seen in the predictions it all looks a bit normal winter style if this ECM Is to be believed.
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5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
I disagree. Once the cold gets in the precedents are for atlantic energy to trend south. I'll be super excited it I lived in Jersey:)
Problem being we have no blocking to sustain any southerly tracking lows, I did think the models blowing away that high on our side of the pond was overdone but alas it appears to have been called correct, in 48 hours we go from a big HP cell just to our west to a low pressure system.
Any snow looks like being quite a transient affair regardless of who gets it, for me and obviously part of this speaks from an IMBY perspective I’m disappointed with the overall output given some of the locked in cold charts we had 3/4 days ago, just shows the difficulty of getting a locked in cold pattern when you have the sodding Atlantic Ocean on your doorstep.
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Dreadful GFS, law of the sod says it’s probably right, always the model you don’t want to be right ends up being the one.
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This to this in 60 hours…. Yikes
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Yikes, been busy for a day or so and come back to extremely disappointing output, for my location anyway, the HLB is no more… looks like there is signs in the longer range of the vortex reforming over Canada as well, feels like a missed chance for a proper cold spell, albeit there could be some decent snow events for some before a quick melt.
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This is such an exceptionally rare January winter chart, don’t worry about precip in this situation… there will be plenty of disturbances, especially for northern/exposed areas.
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Looking at the day 7 chart I see signs of height rises over Scandi… just a sniff at the moment but with the way those GH are pivoting and linking with that high building over the arctic it’s a possibility
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Improvements again
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I see it’s got childish in here again this morning, there’s always going to be natural location bias when viewing the models, not sure why it’s taken so personally.
Northerlies aren’t particaurly favourable for southern areas but it also can be a very high reward IF we do get some moisture thrown in, I know the old adage is often said on here but get the cold air in place first then we can worry about exact forecasts later on, I’m a snow starved south coaster so I’m as hard done by as any
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Hells bells the 18z has been in the pub all night
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Just now, Captain Shortwave said:
The GFS whilst not as good with the initial plunge, it does deliver a much better wedge opportunity.
The high should cut off close to Greenland instead of being blown away.
All in FI again though isn’t it CS? We had these similar charts at this range 3 days ago, we’ve seen this many times before with things getting knocked back, mainly because things don’t get picked up at that range.
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Just now, TSNWK said:
Maybe another go into Greenland at day 9
Day 9 again… sigh, think we just need to accept that every time this high tries to get properly into Greenland as it comes into a reliable timeframe little shortwaves and nuances are picked up that stop it, the carrot is being dangled at day 9/10 again.
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Just now, seabreeze86 said:
Really just shows how insanely good the charts have been if this is being kicked out of bed
The issue is the period after this chart though, as most have said the period between 120/168 appear to be going well but then the blocking dramatically weakens and we end up in a damp squib
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I wouldn’t, if you’d offered me this I would have bitten your hand off…
That T96 chart isn’t great at all, no blocking to sustain the cold southward progression, that’s just the reality of where we are and pretending like that t96 chart is good will only lead to more disappointment really.
There’s pretty much cross model agreement on the Greenland vortex powering up and an enormous high pressure cell to our south /sw, seen it countless winters and it’s a winter killer unfortunately, I know people don’t like to hear it but it’s reality.