Weathizard
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Posts posted by Weathizard
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Oh well, enjoy Christmas everyone!
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Have we ever seen such a ridiculous difference, I know it’s 8 days away but one of these models is going to have serious egg on face
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Not buying the 6z run to be honest, look at the Madrid pressure, very unlikely.
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ECM having not much of it, I know who I trust in this situation having been here many times down the years, look at the pressure difference in the Iceland area at day 6, that’s the key area. I just can’t see the EC being that wrong.
168 is a nudge in the right direction with pressure lowering to the south
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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:
So, here we are at T+120 (GFS 12Z) and it's anyone's guess as to what's going to happen:
Back in the days of yore, I'd have plumped for a cold evolution; these days, I'm not so sure!
People must be looking at something else to me on this, how will cold air flood south with heights like that over Europe?
Answers on a postcard please, I guess it depends if you want to see falling flakes or proper cold.
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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Phasing tragedy strikes between day 7 and 8 .
The vorticity heads sw and meets the low to the sw . Game over then as that pulls that ne .
Same old problem , blocking too far west which digs the jet into Iberia forcing the Euro high ne .
Whilst that high is in situ I really struggle to see how anyone gets excited, even for transient events, which doesn’t interest me massively
There is a certain amount of IMBY’ism on here this morning which is to be expected, but I’m not sure how anyone can look at a chart with a euro high that big and feel optimism, we’ve seen so many times the heights to our south are the #1 winter killer and there won’t be any notable proper cold whilst that is in place.
The Madrid ens, if anything are trending the wrong way again.
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192 will be interesting, let’s see what happens to the pressure to our south
The winter storms in the US are normally well predicted by the models and that storm is what is causing that big ridge+WAA
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1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:
It's trending south every run though, not a bad place to be at 6-7 days out
Just now, TSNWK said:I think for us all we have to be content on how 12z has shunted the pattern south for Christmas weekend.. northern England and Scotland look primed for snow.. south of that rain but if we had the same jumps south on the 18z and 00z pretty much all would be in the game.. not an unrealistic ask for 1 week. Rest of run for entertainment and big ukm 168 in 20 mins after the teezer 144
Look at the heights to our south, for me it’s near impossible this system can trend much further south.
Midlands and the north could well get a nice Christmas present tho
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Look at that for a winter storm in the US, mental.
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
Again, this is where location matters.
For the south this chart is nearly 24 hours under a slow moving band of quite heavy rain.
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17 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:
Thank you for this post. I’m actually shocked at the despondency here today. As far as I can see there is so much potential going into Christmas and the new year. I think people are getting hung up on the short term too much. I say that as a Londoner! God knows it’s hard to get the good stuff here.
Its not despondency it’s just realism and saying what we see, a beefed up Iberian high and a meandering low to our west, it means for us southern folk for at least tbe next 8-10 days there isn’t anything cold, even the ensembles are bleak really.
Whereas if we look at further north I can see room for optimism amongst these ensembles, so naturally there will be a fair bit of IMBY’ism on this thread, which annoys a few but IMO is totally understandable
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34 minutes ago, P-M said:
I don't know where people get this "typical North South split" from with standard affair of snow across Scotland. There's mountains up there but there's also large swathes that get nothing in terms of snow and cold and in recent years I'd say there's been a massive decline. This December is anything but standard and the NH is anything but typical.
Models showing a milder blip from Sunday but where we go from there is anyone's business. Even met forecasters are scratching their heads it seems. So hold tight and enjoy the ride. We have some good options or potentials among the runs and ensembles so I'm going to remain glass half full for now.
Simply put, the northern half of the UK get a lot more snow generally than the southern half, that’s not controversial to say, it’s just true.
A true N/S split is normally when we have polar air incursions from the north battling against a low moving in from the Atlantic, meaning the northern side of the low often get snow, normally transient, whilst the southern side often get rain or are under HP influence.
In one of the runs last night we saw 13c on the south coast, and blizzards in Scotland.
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For the south it’s very difficult to see any proper cold, and for me increasingly so for the north, but I guess that depends what you define as proper cold, the beefy euro high will put pay to any true cold air.
The traditional N/S split is what I’d expect, transient periods of snow/rain in the north, it’s typical winter pattern with a totally untypical NH pattern which is the frustrating thing.
The Madrid pressure ensembles so show some hope of pressure lowering in that area, but not within the next 10 days or so, and we all know how stubborn that feature is, particularly with a meandering ponderous low to our west.
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2 minutes ago, KTtom said:
I just dont get the excitement over an Arctic high unless there are more members who reside in the arctic than I thought who want to get their washing out!
It’s because once in a blue moon an arctic high can deliver for us, that being said I’m struggling to remember the last time it did, we’ve seen small areas of HP in the arctic fairly commonly in recent years.
The problem commonly with them is you get small pieces of vortex scattered around, which can be more irritating than one giant dominatrix vortex.
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1 minute ago, Stuie W said:
oh the ridge...
Will this system upstream be friend or foe, could get some serious WAA being pumped up by this beast, or it could fire up the jet.
9/10 will be interesting.
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7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
There she goes, defo a change in patterns coming - for the better I think
Look at that system in the states, brutal winter conditions there if that comes off, unfortunately this kind of thing could fire the jet up, hard to see a system that strong not barrelling through a weak ridge
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Just now, Stuie W said:
Stonking artic high is back and an amplified Greeny... don`t see this very often.
Shame about that perpetual low to our west pumping up that hideous slug to our south.
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
Where’s the GEM going with this, T144?
Just sensing an opportunity here, ahead of that back end low of the ‘chain of lows’.
With that monster Iberian high even if we get the mother of all WAA pumping, I can’t see it being fruitful, the euro slug is a synoptic git
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Siberian express… for the middle of the Atlantic
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13 minutes ago, LRD said:
Yes, that's reflected in the 850s graph too (not full run) and GFS 6z op is near the top end of the pack in terms of mild 850s. A dip and a cold cluster appearing for late Xmas Eve into Xmas Day for London:
Glasgow is cold:
Manchester looks good from Xmas Eve too
Cardiff:
Nothing dramatic but some signs of improvement for cold prospects. I get some of the despondency and the cynicism in terms of cold returning but I'm just commenting on what the models are saying
UKMO is a concern f it's cold you're after, of course
ECM better tan last night even if it wasn't great
Those ensembles have got significantly worse for cold since yesterday though unfortunately, we are back to chasing ensembles in the day 7+ period which to be fair is standard winter stuff on here
The arctic high is doing us no favours really, ironic because normally it’s a raging PV over the pole at this time of year giving us no chance.
I always use the Madrid ensembles as a guide to pressure to our south, and they remain steadfast, unfortunately.
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Dreadful models tonight, unfortunately things have definitely taken a turn away from cold, but things can always turn back.
All is not lost and winter is still yet young
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Oh dear oh dear
