Harve

While not an unrealistically cold FI in itself, it is rather implausible as a Greenland high of 1075mb develops seemingly out of nowhere with little support from teleconnections (though I'm certainly no expert on these). Does anyone know what Greenland's highest pressure recorded in last November / December's spell was? Of course it will not verify, but I'm curious as to why the GFS decided to forecast such crazy pressure rises in the Arctic, or is this it's usual behaviour? It's certainly an abrupt change and we can only assume it will be back to the usual Euro-high next run. And the pressure gradient from Greenland to Norway is mental too! If only...

The 18z was at least impressive for having a powerful shot of warmth (0c 850 hPa temps) going all the way up to Svalbard and over into Russia, this just has the usual Euro high slowly weakening and then suddenly strengthening again...

It surely hasn't been as foggy as last February? I remember an incredibly foggy spell that must've lasted two weeks...

I think August 2008 sums up my most hated weather well enough. Warm, humid, grey / dull, dry with incredibly little of note. The something like 11 days of perpetual fog this February also got rather tiresome, as did the 'naff easterly' at the end of last January, although it did bring an ice day. However, it's worth pointing out that since then, the weather hasn't gone through any terrible spells, for me.

That's mental for the last day of October! Does anyone have the daily highest minima records for October / November?

8.5c

North Sea temperatures, and probably easterly air masses themselves, are at the coldest in mid February. 103m would definitely be high enough.

11.2

Around 350m in the Derbyshire Peak District: 01/12/10 - Between 45 and 60cm, with a mean of just under 55cm, though I suspect Terminal Moraine's figure of 50cm was more accurately measured. The snow almost completely thawed by mid December, but drifts lasted into mid January following more top ups. There were far bigger drifts in winter 2009/2010, I suspect snow depths peaked roundabouts the 10th/11th January at 40cm, though this figure is far less certain as the drifts were up to 10 feet tall / deep (they had to be seen to be believed!) a few miles to the west of here, and at an altitude of 500m. I believe that snow lasted until mid April, although closer to home the drifts were largely thawed by late February. Although the drifts of January 2010 were far more impressive, the level depth on 1/12/10 was certainly deeper and the deepest I remember in my lifetime.

In Derbyshire there were also two instances of temporary snowfall settling down to the relatively low altitudes of 250m and 150m respectively in late February. However, I believe that was the last settling snowfall of the year (there was some snowfall in mid March, though it never settled below 500m). Perhaps the next nearest occurrence wasn't until early-mid June, where Welsh mountains received snowfall down to moderate altitudes, so perhaps the Pennines and Peak District had a chance too, but I don't recall seeing anything vaguely wintry. An exceptionally mild and snowless spring indeed.

While the Peak District was suffering from a build up of cloud from 9am onwards, following of course blue skies, it was very warm in Nottingham centre today, with rather a lot of sunshine. Only to return to slate grey skies and some drizzle here. I assume this is often the case?

Also to the west of Birmingham, across Shropshire and Herefordshire too. I think it's simply the rain shadow from the Welsh mountains? I don't think it's particularly a 'phenomena', remarkable as the different annual rain totals between North Wales and the Midlands are.

16.6

Sorry to be finicky, but 1C over (added?) to 4C is not a 20% change. It is far less of a percentage change, since the lowest temperature is below -200C and not 0C. However yes, it is still significant.

Buxton only needs 45 more hours of sunshine for the remainder of the month to be the 2nd sunniest July in the last 8 years - some way behind the ridiculous July 2006 of course, but it would beat decent months such as July 2003 and 2005. In terms of averages it's not been too bad really! Your problem is the Peak's climate, there's been no shocking month this year, in terms of wind, rain and a lack of sunshine. Yes, even February wasn't too bad considering autumn 2006 and winter 2006/07.

Whether the gulf stream has weakened or not is debatable, but I'm pretty sure the gulf stream hasn't 'gone south'. Even if the current itself did / has, it would take many years for the waters around the UK to cool to temperatures similar to the same latitude as here.

I think some of us are getting a little ahead of ourselves. Whilst someone's predictions are going to come true, maybe a little humility is needed - any winter prediction / forecast is going to be fairly inaccurate, and should a forecast made at this stage come off it's likely to be due to chance.

Ahh, thankyou! Some silly amounts of rain there, it hasn't seemed too wet in the south east of the Peaks.

Is there any live data on the internet of this station? It'd be interesting to compare 530m up to down in the valleys at 150m...

If this summer is classed as 'cold' then I dread to think how hot summers are in the south... I can appreciate how everyone's different, but I just fail to see how 16-18C maxes are disappointing - it may be below average but how could anyone possibly feel chilly in those temperatures? It's only rainfall and sunshine that matters, at least to me.

I'd say this summer has easily been the best since 2006, however that is largely dependant on sunshine - which has been plentiful this year - and not temperatures, since it never really feels chilly in summer save for a few 6C mornings.

Yes, I think the real issue is that it overdoes the cooling effects of the coast far too much! I wouldn't be able to explain why it also underestimates our winter temperatures, though.

Some of these forecasts are insanely hot! Summer: Monday - Sunny with sharp, frequent hail showers in the afternoon. Min 6C, Max 16C Tuesday - Clear skies allow for a chilly dawn, cloud arrives at sunrise with heavy rain following to remain the entire day, with temporary sleet and snow on the leading edge. Heavy pulses by the afternoon, accompanied by squally winds with some light rain and faint sunshine in between. 110mm of frontal rain. Min 0C, Max 11C Wednesday - Rain clears leaving a foggy morning with weak sunshine shining through, eventually leaving cool sunshine by the afternoon. Min 7C, Max 15C Thursday - A gradual warm up with clear skies throughout, though never too hot. Min 4C, Max 18C Friday - Hot with an afternoon thunderstorm at 4pm to cool things down. Remaining humid in the evening though, allowing temperatures stay in the mid teens during the evening. Min 9C, Max 23C Basically, add 2007 levels of rainfall with far more sunshine and clearance, with nights more in line with April in terms of temperature.

Ah yes, I'm wrong. I was looking a few weeks back on this: This shows that if the year were to continue as it is doing, it would be the warmest on record. Of course that isn't to say that it's the warmest first half.

Coldest January since 1987 Coldest February since 1996 Coldest winter since 1978/79 Coolest May since 1996 Coolest August since 1993 Coldest November since 1993 Coolest autumn since 1993 Coldest December since 1890 And yet one of the warmest, if not THE warmest first half to 2011 ever.