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yorkieblade

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Posts posted by yorkieblade

    Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just looking at the national BBC graphics on their latest video forecast , it's showing the snow line to be around the Pennines , looks like Sheffield might just miss out , depends how Far East the front gets, I usually back the BBC as they use Meto \ MOGREPS data , funnily enough it's the cold air that we need in that will stall the front pushing East, but we have had some severe snow in these set ups before, window watching from around 18:00 then.

    Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Bloomin eck are you really that low? I'm in Dronfield at 215m asl! I can't be that far from you. I forget how varied the Sheffield landscape area is!

    Yes, we are really low , I'm about 10 meters above the River Rother , probably one of the lowest points in Sheffield , such a pain when searching for the white stuff ,having come originally from Gleadless Town End , where it always gets pasted ( being a lot higher) , but we have done well these last 3 events ( Boxing Day, last Thurs & today) .â„

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think a cautionary note on the strat warming.... it's something UKMO's M-R folk have been watching closely all winter (as you'd imagine). I just asked about this, i.e. re their views on the NCEP signals of late. They tell me: "GLOSEA5, the UKMO seasonal model, doesn't seem to support this event all that much and since it hasn't been working so far this season in terms of getting the warmer air down in reality, this signal isn't being used in relation to forecasting a change to colder periods." 

    There was a much more pronounced signal emerging back in earlier Jan (modelled for later Jan and into early Feb, as some on this forum are aware), but that was lost.

    Meto have navigated their way through this Winter with great professionalism, ( as they have too of course) but great posts from Ian and colleagues on this forum really help the novices ( me included) navigate their way through some of the posts - as already said above whatever the models have shown this year Meto have been bang on the money with their forecasts this Winter , obviously the finances used on the "super models" they use is money and time well spent it appears.
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    Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    If you don't mind me saying Gibby I would change the summary to saying North and West for the snowfall. The reason I say is the models suggest a W,ly element to the N,ly so places such as NW Wales are more prone to snowfall. The only exception is possibly parts of N/E Norfolk as geographically this location is exposed to a NW,ly also. The further outlook remains unchanged in my opinion with HP in charge providing settled, dry conditions with frost, fog a risk at night. A very slim chance of an E,ly developing later. Shall post more on this later on.

    I'm sure I echo everyone's thoughts, great to see you back, we have all missed your very knowledgable posts
    • Like 19

    Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    With reference to shedheads last post. Did some posters say last week that the models will fluctuate and probably show zonal until the vortex has relocated over siberia /Russia? Just asking Posted Image

    People like John Holmes & Gibby  for me "tells it how it is" , no hope or wish casting , I have been following this forum for a few years and experiance tells me that certain posters tend to post charts that suit their preferred outcome, I must admit as a novice myself it becomes difficult ,but you will through experiance find out the which members are more or less on the money.Please don't be put off !!

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