spindrift1980
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Posts posted by spindrift1980
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Sorry to say that the 18Z NAE gives even the west a much reduced precipitation total for Friday and appears to be siding with the GFS ... 18Z NAE total ppn
A bit of a shocker - everything seems to have shifted west . No accumulated snow at all through most of the central belt on this chart- is this beginning to go pear-shaped?
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It will get east of Glasgow, probably, how far is really hard to say, from the front at least, afterwards the convection risk increases considerably, provided the uppers hold up ok.
I'd be quite annoyed if it doesn't get east of Glasgow!
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Seems to be more snow on the Loch Morlich beach than on the hills:
The Strathspey side of the Cairngorms seems to have notably less than the Braemar side at the moment, which seems to have 15-30cm cover on most aspects - see photo below from http://www.sais.gov.uk/page_southern%20cairngorms.asp
This is a cracking photo too - hopefully scenes which will be replicated in Barrhead, Wishaw, Penicuik etc. in the near future!
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MO have released a picture of expected fresh snow cover on Friday but the 2-5cm line doesn't even reach fife and the east, while their warming covers most of Scotland...confusing.
It's only really a broad-brush estimate I suppose, so wouldn't take it literally, but I wonder what the thinking behind it is. It does leave pretty much the whole of the Lothians out and the snowless zone comes a bit too far west through the central belt for my liking!
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Hopefully it's not a sleet blizzard!
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Looks like a bit of a warm sector affecting the central belt on this one? Heavier precipitation not making inroads as far east across Scotland as modelled by these Icelandic charts yesterday either.
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I'm totally confused. Much talk on other parts of the forum about fronts potentially not penetrating as far north-east as such northern outposts as Peterborough!
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Some of you have mentioned Feburary 1996? IF it's the event I think it was, it seemed if I remember to start off possibly with a flash of lightning/rumble of thunder. Eventually turned into a full scale major league blizzard (it was a saturday) Didn't seem to stop for hours on end!
There might have been a Saturday snowfall but the initial falls were mid-week as I was a 4th year secondary school pupil on work experience and both my 'workplace' and school were closed for a few days - a happy memory!
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I managed to get a taxi out of Glasgow city centre on that Saturday night in March 2006 just in the nick of time - loads of thick fluffy snow cover the next day but it was largely gone by the Monday.
The February 1996 snow was very enjoyable - gave a good healthy covering to the Glasgow area and lasted for a good while - would happily take a repeat of that!
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Thats good. Suggestive that lower pressure/trough will indeed be to the south and west of us.
If we got the advance warning first I'd be more concerned that any low pressure to north and west would be washing us out to rain and atlantic influence pretty quickly
So all going to plan at this point !
I hope so. The Met Office's own forecast at the moment and comments in other areas of this site lead me to fear that the front will fizzle before properly reaching Scotland.
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Early warning out for Parts of England and Ireland for Friday.
Nothing for Scotland.
Yes, seems a bit out of step with the accumulated snow charts posted elsewhere.
I'm not up on what models are generating each of these charts though as I'm not a subscriber. The Met Office does seem to have been largely on the money so far during this spell of weather.
MWIS seems to reckon at the moment that the snow will make inroads well into Scotland from the SW during Friday though, and that there will 'then (be)
further snow circulating within low pressure until well into next week.'
I've got no central heating at the moment and am supposed to be going hillwalking at the weekend but am still longing for snow - it's an addiction!
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nae snaw so far and nothing for tues/wed
BUT LS posting those blizzard charts what can I say but wow! I wonder.....It'll never verify though.
.Or will it?!.........
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.Also, MetO now forecasting some spells of light snow for my location overnight tonight.
I think you might be looking at the forecast for Allanton in Berwickshire (on the north sea coast of the Borders) unfortunately. No ppn. forecast for Motherwell, Wishaw, Shotts, etc.
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Pentland Hills webcam looking good!
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A non event snow gone now.felt more like late March snow today rather than mid Jan.BBC have rain for central scotland tomorrow.what happened to biting cold.
I'm gearing up for a good moan too - had more or less lost interest in low level snow during the 2000s due to its scarcity (bar the odd one day wonder like March 2006) and was content to get a snow fix on the Munros but 2009/2010 raised the hopes again. It's all been a bit underwhelming ever since really. Also, my central heating has packed in today!
Hopefully we'll see something moving through the central belt during the week but the east and particularly eastern England looks more favoured. Hopefully at the very least the hills will get a reasonable dumping.
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Just to let you know, going to try and fix my traffic cameras pages in prep for snaw, will be back shortly.
There's a new yin at the snowgates on the A93 south of Braemar:
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GFS 12Z is marginal at points for those on the east coast but majorly snowy if we can stick the landing:
Bit of a Glasgow/North Lanarkshire/west coast snowshield there. Typical.
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Noo back tae the snaw!
Good for Glenshee Ski Centre but a lot of rain about elsewhere (and these charts tend to overstate the possibility of snow rather than rain, in my experience).
Hmm...
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We don't count since we're all hill-billy types.
Aye, everyone knows that snow up here is only of interest to these guys!
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Mist to sunshine and now back to mist again in East Kilbride today, with a frost first thing. Certainly has a much more wintry feel than the springlike weather of recent times.
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Yes, it would, but the wet bulb temperature is partly based on the dewpoint, so if temperatures are dragged down to the dewpoint by the latent cooling but the dewpoint remains just above 0C snow is still possible, but in that instance the wet bulb temperature would still be above 0C.
Ah, the penny has dropped. Thanks for the explanation.
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I meant the 0C level required for snow would be higher because temperatures at ground level fall more quickly.
I'm totally confused now! I thought that latent cooling would drive the 0C level downwards during heavy precipitation? No?
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It's around 200m, though higher if precipitation is heavy.
Wouldn't the 0C level be lower if the precipitation was heavy?
I had no idea that they used such charts to predict precipitation type. Yet another variable to throw into the equation!
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The heady days of 2009/10 seem a long way away at the moment. The Atlantic is having its revenge now!
Still, here are a few wintry photos from the Pentlands yesterday to prove that even mild-ish spells have their moments:
BUT LS posting those blizzard charts what can I say but wow! I wonder.....
Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>
in Regional
Posted · Edited by spindrift1980
My gut feeling is there will still be zero snow here by the end of Saturday, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong!
Off to the hills on Sunday, methinks. it's hugely frustrating for the Scottish ski areas though that it's staying so cold but delivering minimal snow.