It Might Snow

It is worth reading the latest mid and long range Met Office updates. It seems to update on the App before the main website and so make sure you veiw it on the App.

Seek out the longer range that follows this latest mid term update then see what you think. The wording for that seems a little better than yesterday.

Thank you Kasim, that makes more sense.

Kasim a moment ago you said that was it until mid Feb for something from the East? I know you were referring to the ECM but your posting is very confusing and erratic.

I thought you felt that your work was done Bartyhater and were not returning until after Xmas? As Cheshire Freeze and Blue army have mentioned over the last few days the models are trying to work out how a huge disruption to the norm is going to impact global weather patterns. For those who take a glass half empty view of things the next few weeks will be stressful, for those who are glass half full kind of people those same weeks will be fascinating and exciting.

Interesting to see that Matt Hugo tweeting that there may have been some changes eleswhere in the World that have led to todays changes in the models. It look like they fall into Scott Ingham's area of interest and so it would be great to hear what Scott's thoughts are going forward. Looking at the changes though between the the model runs from both versions of the GSF today I am not sure anything is set in stone yet. Big swings as to where high and low pressure is predicted between runs today.

Is it poor for the UK? I can see his point re the US though.

Well if you liked that update the correct one for today is even better as that is yesterdays update still. Here is the correct one. UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019: Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times. Updated: 01:26 on Tue 18 Dec 2018 GMT

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 7 Feb 2018: Through this period the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, showers and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to or a little below normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes. Hi Gavin, I think this is the most up to date forecast from the Met Office.

I am not sure that they would be commenting on something in these updates that is yet to happen and would they comment on the results of this thing that has not occurred yet at this stage anyway as they don't know what the results of this possible event are yet.I don't think the dice have been picked up yet.

Could well be but nothing excuses some of the posts. It was similar to a few weeks ago when the likes of Tamara and others were also subjected to similar odd comments. I guess as you say some members just find it hard to hear news that does not fit with their expectations, it really is odd.

Lets try and keep them all, now if some of those who started posting such rubbish this afternoon feel the need to leave well then that's another matter. They may be Trolls, bored or even over tired after staying up late last night, I am not sure what the problem is but it is all a little odd!

Really, the big hitters as you call them add much to this community and help us learn. Far better than having to read this kind of post. Some of the comments this afternoon have been odd to say the least. Surely everyone's views are welcome, we all breath the same air after all. I for one hope Ian does continue to post and anyone else offended by the stupid comments this afternoon that do not represent the views of the majoirty of members.

If you click the link Dances with wings provided the forecast is now available. Provides an interesting comparison to the other long range forecasts seen so far.

Not wanting to prolong this but he does have a point Shedhead, your original post shows the same 1st Feb chart for the GFS and ECM as the Meto and GEM chart that he is using as an alternative to your own view. They are not T+ 192 charts that you posted.

Not aimed at this one post but to most of those that have appeared in the last 10 minutes or so. As someone who is still learning I wonder how so many can be so sure the GFS has now predicted our weather for the next 15 days correctly. With this model due to be replaced shortly I would think caution is required. Am I missing something here, is the replacement model an upgrade of an already effective computer model, or a replacement for one that now struggles, the reasons for which are beyond my understanding. I think it is the latter.

Good morning Ian, I hope Ian F does not mind me using his post from last night, but if you read this and also consider Matt Hugo's post this morning I think they provide a much more balanced veiw than reacting to one or two poor model runs which we have been constantly warned will be all over the place for some time. #1381 fergieweather Posted Today, 00:28 POPULAR Very latest UKMO guidance just issued goes for the cold/v cold story predominanting into next week with potential sequence of battleground set-ups of snow to rain and back again in W/SW ; heavy snow potentially in any region; perhaps with a temporary relaxation of pattern but return of cold thereafter (MOGREPS keeping a N'rly well into 10-15d trend period)