It Might Snow
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Posts posted by It Might Snow
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1 hour ago, KTtom said:
Hardly wonderful! In a nut shell, cold and grey, snow showers north, low risk of more general spell of snow in the south before the Atlantic returns.
Seek out the longer range that follows this latest mid term update then see what you think. The wording for that seems a little better than yesterday.
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Just now, Kasim Awan said:
WOOPS I meant 15th/16th January.
Thank you Kasim, that makes more sense.
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I thought you felt that your work was done Bartyhater and were not returning until after Xmas?
As Cheshire Freeze and Blue army have mentioned over the last few days the models are trying to work out how a huge disruption to the norm is going to impact global weather patterns. For those who take a glass half empty view of things the next few weeks will be stressful, for those who are glass half full kind of people those same weeks will be fascinating and exciting.
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Interesting to see that Matt Hugo tweeting that there may have been some changes eleswhere in the World that have led to todays changes in the models. It look like they fall into Scott Ingham's area of interest and so it would be great to hear what Scott's thoughts are going forward. Looking at the changes though between the the model runs from both versions of the GSF today I am not sure anything is set in stone yet. Big swings as to where high and low pressure is predicted between runs today.
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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
I think I'd better pass
Is it poor for the UK? I can see his point re the US though.
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13 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
To be honest you won't get a more positive cold outlook from the MetO than that at a certain range!...about as bullish as they get, doesn't mean it will happen though so fingers crossed!
Well if you liked that update the correct one for today is even better as that is yesterdays update still. Here is the correct one.
UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019:
Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.
Updated: 01:26 on Tue 18 Dec 2018 GMT
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:
UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 6 Feb 2018:
As we approach the end of January the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, shower and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07
UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 7 Feb 2018:
Through this period the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, showers and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to or a little below normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.
Hi Gavin, I think this is the most up to date forecast from the Met Office.
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25 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
No interest in any SSW very cold conditions from the UK Met Office. Looks like our last throw of the dice is going to roll a double 1.
I am not sure that they would be commenting on something in these updates that is yet to happen and would they comment on the results of this thing that has not occurred yet at this stage anyway as they don't know what the results of this possible event are yet.I don't think the dice have been picked up yet.
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Just now, Nouska said:
The only problem is that someone provided an unpalatable dose of realism to burst the fairy tale that was spun a short time ago.
Could well be but nothing excuses some of the posts. It was similar to a few weeks ago when the likes of Tamara and others were also subjected to similar odd comments. I guess as you say some members just find it hard to hear news that does not fit with their expectations, it really is odd.
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1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
Can we at least agree not to let GP be the next one driven-away from posting here?
Lets try and keep them all, now if some of those who started posting such rubbish this afternoon feel the need to leave well then that's another matter. They may be Trolls, bored or even over tired after staying up late last night, I am not sure what the problem is but it is all a little odd!
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18 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Disagree completely. If I want the views of the Metoffice then I am more than capable of googling them myself or making reference to outlooks posted on the a BBC. The intention of these forums is in general to chat, amongst equals.. When the big hitters come in when ever they feel like it, I take exception. I would clearly ignore if it made a difference.
Anyway nice debate, and I wish you all a healthy and happy 2016. Cheers.
Really, the big hitters as you call them add much to this community and help us learn. Far better than having to read this kind of post. Some of the comments this afternoon have been odd to say the least. Surely everyone's views are welcome, we all breath the same air after all. I for one hope Ian does continue to post and anyone else offended by the stupid comments this afternoon that do not represent the views of the majoirty of members.
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If you click the link Dances with wings provided the forecast is now available. Provides an interesting comparison to the other long range forecasts seen so far.
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No, they were the T+192hrs from GFS and ECM, which despite the overall confusion in the short/medium term looked very much alike.
So as Gibby summerised there is something of a split in the longer term evolutions between GFS/ECM on one side and GEM/NAVGEM on the other, with UKMO probably floating somewhere in the middle. Again as I said there is nothing to suggest the former will be correct, but they have shown a fairly consistent trend towards the Scandi block slipping SE, so for now if I had to put money on it I'd back them over GEM/NAVGEM. However, and this is the main point (reiterated several times yesterday) this DOES NOT MEAN MILD WEATHER, so any talk of the Atlantic coming back in should not automatically be viewed in this way.
Not wanting to prolong this but he does have a point Shedhead, your original post shows the same 1st Feb chart for the GFS and ECM as the Meto and GEM chart that he is using as an alternative to your own view. They are not T+ 192 charts that you posted.
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The GFS 12z is horrible end to end.
No prolonged cold, no HLB, no Arctic high, etc
By T192 the PV has moved to Greenland:
gfsnh-0-192 (1).pngIt then takes a week to move east just north of the UK, by T300:
gfsnh-0-300 (2).pngIt then hits the Siberian high and by the end of the run its back where it started:
gfsnh-0-384 (4).pngNot conducive of a cold spell but certainly transient wintry stuff for hills and up north.
Not aimed at this one post but to most of those that have appeared in the last 10 minutes or so. As someone who is still learning I wonder how so many can be so sure the GFS has now predicted our weather for the next 15 days correctly. With this model due to be replaced shortly I would think caution is required. Am I missing something here, is the replacement model an upgrade of an already effective computer model, or a replacement for one that now struggles, the reasons for which are beyond my understanding. I think it is the latter.
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No it was the ECM that first picked up the shortwave off Southern Greenland in late November. The GFS was first to show the Norwegian shortwave in December that scuppered the Easterly.
Just really disappointed for everybody, let's see what Ian F has to say and see if the METO change their outlooks later.
Good morning Ian, I hope Ian F does not mind me using his post from last night, but if you read this and also consider Matt Hugo's post this morning I think they provide a much more balanced veiw than reacting to one or two poor model runs which we have been constantly warned will be all over the place for some time.
Posted Today, 00:28
POPULAR
Very latest UKMO guidance just issued goes for the cold/v cold story predominanting into next week with potential sequence of battleground set-ups of snow to rain and back again in W/SW ; heavy snow potentially in any region; perhaps with a temporary relaxation of pattern but return of cold thereafter (MOGREPS keeping a N'rly well into 10-15d trend period)
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by It Might Snow
Grammar
It is worth reading the latest mid and long range Met Office updates. It seems to update on the App before the main website and so make sure you veiw it on the App.