Frosty_wsm
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Posts posted by Frosty_wsm
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Looks like a rain event for my area, a bit of a shame, but looks like the cold will be hanging around for a while yet.
Must say, I am really disappointed with some of the post in the model thread, especially from some of Net-weathers own forecasters. Very non-bias & certainly a case of 'toy's out of the pram' by many.
Looking like rain for all at low levels, sleet at best with snow confined to high ground, probably no point even taking a trip up the mendips as the heavy stuff isn't making it that far east by the looks of it.
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Talk about a rollercoaster ride in the model thread! lol
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Thats what I like about the regional threads , we can forget about the models for a couple of days and concentrate on what is happening here and now ...
woohoo just noticed your from Weston as well where abouts bro ?I'm out worle way.
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Bear in mind though that the GFS shows a very Snowy breakdown for our region ...... Would at least get a dumping from that , although I personally think the Cold air will hang in longer ... the models are having there 7 days away hickups ... You are likely to get a good 00z ECM tomorrow or Tuesday and GFS will backtrack a couple of runs later... Remember even the UKMO had to backtrack regarding this week .
The models are all over the place so as I said, i'm not concerned yet, its well known that they struggle with these kind of setups, here's going for a nice ecm later.
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12z gfs not good, Atlantic shoves the cold air back east with relative ease but its so different to the 06z that until there's consistency its not worth worrying about. ukmo rolling out now, wonder what that will show.
Edit : ukmo follows gfs, can the 12z ecm come to the rescue later.
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Lots of talk in the model thread about the huge low shown by the ecm +216 which would bring snow to 95% of the UK with rain for the other 5%, bet you know where the other 5% is! Lol that's all in fi though and if the position of that low was a tiny bit more south west on the charts on the day then the south west could be looking at a repeat of Feb 79.
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Im also very close to the "SE of Wales" sooooo... Hmmm
Was thinking the same thing, I can se wales from town, can't get much closer than actually being there lol
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Is this the right thread for christhurch/Bournemouth? I never know as we are sort of in the middle of SW and SE!
I'd say stick to the SW thread, we're a nicer bunch than those in the SE thread
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All looks really promising going forward, although going by some on the mod disscussion thread it has to be too good to be true!?!
Until the ukmo comes back on board there is that kinda naggin feeling, but that model wobbled a few days ago and todays 12z could be another one, hopefully the 00z will follow the ecm/gfs route.
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Just remember that forecast wouldn't of took into account the 12z output though!
Not that I'm sure it would make a lot of difference!
Very true, am not sure whether that was a `live` forecast or a recording from earlier in the day plus it'll be interesting to see what the updated faxes show later, also the nae as well.
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Awesome ecm with some very low uppers over the uk, as for tomorrow & into monday, on the news24 forecast at 18:58 it's a non event except for the hills, perhaps sleet at times at low levels, that's a complete turn around to what was being shown early this morning with snow covering our region on their charts.
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The latest T48 FAX chart as a slight shift westwards of the front on Monday!
However one thing that is bugging me is that the 528 DAM line is to the east of our region! I thought for snow chance, thickness has to be 528 or less?
with a feed off a cold continent its very possible to have snow to low levels, even sea level without the 528 line being over you.
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Plenty still to play for, but at least it gives us something to talk about at last, thought this winter was going to be a total write off.
Here's hoping we have alot more to talk about around 6.30 when the ecm is rolling out & I'm never one to write off winter myself and I did find it amusing how some were at the end of dec, early jan, especially with all the events that were being talked about in the strat thread at the time.
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Sub zero days according to the GFS 12z next Friday into the weekend, with night time temps down to -6-8c
shame it's the gfs showing that, I'd be much happier if it was the ukmo/ecm showing it, ukmo isn't as good at the same time frame and the high has that sinking feeling, still there's no doubt the models struggle with these setups so here's hoping the gfs has it right for later next week but It'll be a concern in the ecm follows the ukmo.
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UKMO very similar to GFS at 60hrs
http://www.meteociel...60-21.GIF?28-17
Edit : Later meto charts not so good, could be a sinker which explains the met 15 dayer outlook which does mention the possibility of mild air getting back in.
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Seems like its an upgrade for cold longer term on the model thread, if we can get the snow tomorrow/Monday then it could stick around for a while.
Cerainly a much better 12z gfs, high further west, cold further west as well and I read the meto precip charts show the warm front not getting as far east, i.e into the central southern england so could be good for our region if we get enough of an undercut of colder air from the east it might not just be snow on high ground.
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Latest NAE shows it as mainly a high ground affair now, could all change by tomorrow though, who knows.
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Mate you know it always rains in weston in these situations! Go 5-10 miles inland and its a different story. On many occasion I have left Yatton in the snow to arrive in weston in the rain!
Sorry but that post is an absolute load of rubbish, having lived in Weston for 39 years I can recall many times with Weston getting snow in setups like what's being forecast.
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So is it gonna snow or ain't it, seems even the experts aren't sure and with one model run being different from the last I urge people not to get hung up on every single chart they see.
This might be a case of looking outside late Sunday into Monday and see what's falling from the sky, we might be pleasantly surprised :-)
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Here's hoping this thread fills up with lots of snow reports in the not too distant future :-)
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I see checking met office regional they have improved graphics to show abit of snow sunday night and monday morning although I dare say that could change several times a day running up to the event which will almost certainly be a nail biting nowcast event I expect.
Forecast I just saw on news 24 showed all our region (west country) in the snow band on monday, all uncertain as to it's exact location mind but that's what they're showing at the moment.
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I can see your point but Ive seen many bone dry easterlys in west country! Even with -15 ippers over north sea if it came off the showers would pruduce nothing of any worth here.
That's why we need an active southerly jet with low pressure systems bumping up against the cold air, a channel low or a slider, it happened many times in the 80s when there was a huge high pressure to the north east and the charts at the moment have that 80s feel about them, even if this warm front later this weekend doesn't reach us, I reckon we could be in for some fun and games the longer the block stays there & pumps all that cold air our way.
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The forcast still dosnt look good down here for any snow rain and sleet after sunday.getting cooler but not lasting or as cold as forcast at first.
considering the models haven't a clue as to what will happen in the short term i'm curious how anyone can make a statement like that about the longer term.
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You won't find me moaning about the weather but there are some posters on this site who annoy me! I find it curious how some find enjoyment coming into sites like this and posting in a provocative manner that they now will annoy others who would like cold and snow, I certainly find numerous posters acting that way, especially at times like this when the charts are very poor for anyone wanting cold and snow and as i'm a coldie I find people like that very sad indeed, they need to get a life!
woohoo just noticed your from Weston as well where abouts bro ?
lol
South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I notice your being ignored in the model thread with regard to that lp lol, probably because its only our small part of the UK that looks like being affected so they don't care, you'd have got a load of replies if it was due to hit the south east!