sandstorm2
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Posts posted by sandstorm2
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A very interesting week + lies ahead and expect neartime/nowtime upgrades to precip amounts. Some will get heavy snow, many will get heavy rain wintry mix but it will feel unpleasant for sure. Next weekend looks very lively indeed with a deep LP tracking across UK possibly along the channel.
BFTP
I kniw that you base your forecasts on solar and lunar phases, is there any chance that you could give me more of an idea how they work. Very interested.
SS2
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Just back in and it has really been springlike today, hoping we get a good blast of cold next week.
I think we all should have a model output party tonight, I'll bring the razors and someone else can bring the toys for throwing out the pram, entry is by petted lip only, and only scowling will be tolerated along with a lot of oneupmanship.
SS2
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Have just read LS's blog and he is asking what got us interested in the weather, well in my case it was the 63 winter and whisper it, I was 11 turning 12 in the FEB of that magnificent winter. Ever since then it has been something of an obsession.
My other half can't work it out, after all these years of weather watching and I still can't forecast the weather, wants to move to the sahara so I can never be wrong (dry sunny and hot) says she is a weather widow.
It is only going to get worse now we have our own thread, no slitting of wrists here, only a bit of friendly banter mixed in with some great weather discussion.
Hope the cold is still on for next week, could do with a good dumping before March.
SS2
How do tou get away with it Big Innes, are you not supposed to be working.
I want a job like yours.
SS2
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just had a look at the GFS charts and it certainly looks 'fresh' next week as my old dad used to say I hope we get a pasting next week.
SS2
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About 100 miles further east, which is a massive difference for the small country at that timeframe.
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/12/81/airpressure.png
About 100 miles further east, which is a massive difference for this small country at that timeframe.
http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100211/12/81/airpressure.png
is that better or worse for the cold?
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MJO, NAO, AO Solar Activity, MMW, Split Vortices :blink:
I never imagined before I started haunting these boards that so many things impacted on our weather systems. Forecasters definitely don't get the credit they're due.
Several times recently I've been tempted to post my thoughts on future events before a member has introduced the complications of one or all of the above, and hastily thought better of guessing!
I don't even know where we stand anymore, I can't seem to pick out a trend, even with reading more experienced member's posts. Does anyone have any thoughts of what they would like to see the 12Z trending towards, whether it's snow, rain or otherwise?
Personally I want the models to trend towards a cold and snowy outlook and at the moment it is a knife edge situation, don't think we will know until 24hrs before the event next week
SS2
PS, think this should really be in the cold spell discussion thread.
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When was the last time we saw charts that were showing something at t144 plus and those actual charts were what happened on the day? very very rarely. I am not suprised that things have moved East. I would add that just because they are better looking charts now does not mean that they will verify. We are in a situation where cold weather is now. ( a few light snow showers here today). Cold air is likely to stay with us for the next 7 days at least and within the period we have oppotunities to get snow fall.
Interesting model watching. Often people look for extremes and these are rare and therefore if that is what you want you are going to be mostly disapointed. Why? The clue is in the word extreme.
Finaly to TEITS. You said a couple of weeks ago that you were going to ignore the people who have a go at you. Like the Nike add "Just do it" they are not worth it.
Thank goodness for a bit of common sense and sanity, I have been looking at the 1200 charts and wondering just why everyone was getting excited at models which by the way as someone said earlier are just forecasts.
I like to look at FI and try to work out for myself what the evolution is going to be, and at the moment one week away it looks like the cold is her to stay for a while but as for snow I dont know.
And I will second your comment about TEITS.
SS2
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The problem will be slighly less cold in the mix moderating temps in the boundry layer. Still looking good for Scotland and Irelans and many parts of England and Wales in my view, apart from Ibrox where it will rain.
Now now steady on there lol, yes you are probably right about the mixing, lets get optimistic.
SS2
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Is there not an awful lot of cold air stagnating in the low settled over the UK, if there is there will be a lot of snow.
SS2
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Just had a browse through the model output discussion and they are hingin on to this phantom easterly by their fingernails, bit depressing really.
We really need to get this projected Northerly to shut them all up, sorry this should really be on the whining thread.
SS2
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Don't know if this is the right thread, but just like to say that to all the decent members that don't get involved in slanging matches, just go into your controls and press the ignore button and hey presto all the usual suspects no longer exist. Sooner or later you are left with viewing the posts that are relevant to that thread.
SS2
Yes I totally agree with you 1800 is a very good run if it is traditional winter weather you are after.
SS2
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GFS looks very similar to the ECMWF 1200 at the +216/240 range with the high retrogressing and a depression coming out of the arctic down the eastern side of the high to give us probably the coldest weather of the winter.
Pity it won't happen like that though, if it was +72 I would be getting excited.
SS2
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Sea Level Pressure
AH, would you believe that I knew that all along, but my brain was refusing to tell me!
Thats my excuse anyway, thanks for the answer Shuggee
SS2
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Silly question coming up but I am going to ask it anyway.
What does SLP stand for in relation to the charts? thanks in anticipation.
SS2
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Would somebody be good enough to give me a link to the NAE model, thanks.
SS2
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Well I just missed 47, but all through the great winters of 63 and the 80's etc, my Dad would always say, 'YOU SHOULD HAVE SEEN 47'One word to describe tonights GFS...mental.
Shades of Feb 47' there surely?
SS2
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The models are showing it becomimg slightly milder at +384,
sorry couldn't resist.SS2
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Can only hope that every council in Britain has taken the opportunity to stock up on grit and salt, because by the look of the models they are going to need plenty. Wonder if the metoffice have given them any early warnings.
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If anyones bored and wants a very interesting read heres an excellent link about how the models work, the most interesting part is headed inherent model errors.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdd/
Yes I know I should get out more! :lol:
After reading this I will never criticise a model output again, and really it is a miracle we have charts and models to debate at all, never mind the accuracy of them.
Thanks for the link Nick
SS2
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TOORP (Toys oot o Ra Pram), MTM (Model thread Meltdown), MUPPET (Model Underperformance Preceding Projectiley Ejected Toys).
Thanks LadyPakal, that is brilliant, don't think they would appreciate that on the model output thread.
SS2
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Would someone be good enough to clue me in to the TOORP and MUPPET joke.
SS2
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Good agreement from three of the big models, and it is the third run where this has happened (stretching the truth a bit)out to +120, it looks like becoming cold again with the atlantic retreating with a bloody nose. Not sur about snow but that is in the fine detail.
SS2
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Erm, nope, this is the T240 chart.
Yes that is the chart that she posted the ECM at T240.
SS2
sorry couldn't resist.
Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 23
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Good morning all you tax dodgers! a pretty dismal day here with rain and a temp of 5.5c will probably drop later on and we will maybe catch some wet snow.
SS2