Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

tvh3382

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    53

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by tvh3382

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    BBC do not get their forecasts from Meto any more so no surprise that their forecasts differ. BBC Will also be deriving their forecast from 12z Mogreps, UKMO and ECM so no surprise they are forecasting Atlantic to win by end of the week. Personally I am looking at the models now and hoping for some decent cold zonal weather - which as we saw before and just after Christmas can deliver snow to many areas! 

    Yes they do at the moment.  Was due to change in April last year but due to some teething problems it has been delayed until this spring. The forecasts for the BBC will come from MeteoGroup.

    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Like a broken record 'again'.. it isnt one run...its a compaction of many...to which the gfs has stuck to its output guns..

    And again the other mods are leaning towards it!!..so knee jerk reactions, there not.

    So its more than worthy of note!

    And tbf, if its deep cold via an easterly quadrant...and convective impactual snow...

    Then id personaly be the one taking a break from all data...until early/mid-next week...

    Lets have some mediation here!

     

    Come on. The GFS is not king, neither are any of the models.   GFS has moved towards ECM, ECM has moved towards the GFS with GFS moving more towards ECM than the other way round.

    Cant post charts as zi am on phone but if you look at GFS  for next Tuesday from two days ago and today for the same time you will see that the GFS will be.the bigger difference.

    The METO has been middle ground and this is looking more likely.  Come back in 7 days and see if you can say GFS is king. I don’t think so.

    i am surprised at sime of the more experienced members who are claiming GFS has been right all along.

     

    SIMPLY NOT TRUE AND MISLEADING TO SLL THE NEW MEMBERS,

    Remember the cold spell has not arrived yet so who knows how long it will last.

    • Like 13
    • Thanks 4

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, West is Best said:

    Folks I wasn't saying it won't be interesting and that we may see some fantastic developments. Merely that the sliding high scenario looks to have been called right by the GFS with the boundary event called by it. We shall see but I don't have any enthusiasm in suggesting it may have called this right.

    But the GFS was showing westerlies from early next week but it is going to be late next even IF it does manage to push in. 

     

    To say GFS is correct is laughable let alone misleading to new members.

     

    43 minutes ago, West is Best said:

    Folks I wasn't saying it won't be interesting and that we may see some fantastic developments. Merely that the sliding high scenario looks to have been called right by the GFS with the boundary event called by it. We shall see but I don't have any enthusiasm in suggesting it may have called this right.

     

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - heading into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, West is Best said:

    ?

    Frosty and cold outside my window, following a snow day: the second this December. The month is half a degree below the (already cold) 1961-1990 mean and likely to end around there or lower: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

    By the way, I'm watching some Alpine skiing whilst typing this and it's fantastic to see such an awesome snowfall across the Alps.

    Seeing the snow falling in Birmingham also reminded me very much of winter 1986/6, where we had a couple of heavy snowfalls before January and then a bitterly cold February: second coldest of the century, bowing only to 1947.

     

    What’s a Frosty doing outside your window??

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

    I'm not sure a post like this is fair. I take your point about a mainly rainy week coming up after about Tuesday - I suppose people like me don't focus on that because it's just bog standard weather. But when we have models trying to place a 200 mile wide band of snow over various parts of the country, I don't see any problem with focusing on that, or reporting that, or to suggest ones own location might be affected by it?

    For us on the south coast, yes it's a bit different, we need something extra special and I'll be astonished if we see lying snow from this - but from 30 miles inland and northwards, well why not speculate?? When I lived in the North Downs area (75msl) we saw all sorts of surprise snowfalls from synoptics not as good as these!

    Northern areas have their own dilemma too of course - if the GFS is right, the whole band of precipitation will miss them to their south!!

    Look at the Meto forecast. They are going cold with rain/sleet/snow and only short mild spells for the south.  I expect all models to upgrade the cold over the next few days.  Anyone who thinks the GFS zonality for the week before Christmas may need to check back in a few days.  Won’t see mild again in 2017 (except the extreme south west).

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Agree re I F tweet, 'markedly colder' that is quite standout. For me this upcoming cold spell is a 'spell' as it isn't going anywhere fast. Snow WILL become a real problem for many and I sit and await the impending weather warnings. The models remain superb in cold outlook.

     

     

     

    BFTP

    The Met Office have now issued warnings for Wednesday and Thursday. Let the fun begin!

    • Like 5

    North West England Regional Discussion 12th February 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted

    True

    however if it snow for two hours or ten hours,the fact is by Thursday Lunchtime if not sooner it will all be gone

    Must add the ECM has just churned out another Stella run,winter over....not by a long way

    C.S

    It will have gone yes but the fact people rely on forecasts for business purposes then some care should be taken and a check of what your saying matches your maps. If things have changed since the graphics had been done then say that you have the latest details.

    This is the Met Office for Rawtenstall for tomorrow. Rain by afternoon??????

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/rossendale-ski-centre#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1360713600

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I think people read to much in every single chart. If people read the various opinions of the experts then they will see that they are expecting the Canadian vortex to go on a holiday across the Atlantic to our northeast. The ECM 240 chart looks like this may be happening. Secondly if people look at the very consistent Met Office 16-30 day outlook they will also see that they do not see zonal and expect the cold to return from the Northeast.

    The slight warm up will happen but it will NOT be mild and every chance of a very snowy breakdown. FI is only 72/96 hours at the moment. Remember what the Met did with their t120 Fax last night, it completely ignoted the UKMO output so we can't take any chart after 96 hours as being correct.

    Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just wanted to stress an important (indeed critical, for this thread) bit of guidance from our medium range folk at Exeter: Do NOT confuse current outlook for a return to the cooler conditions next few days with SSW effect. The latter has NOT yet shown it's hand in any NWP output in any reliable sense. They continue to expect this next key phase - with hugely uncertain outcome - to become a feature appearing from around 10d onwards, and NOT in the more near-term medium range. Current set-up into weekend / early next week etc is not related to SSW in their estimation - just bob-standard winter fare.

    And if the 18z does not include any SSW info just image what it could be like if it did. Now where is my snow shovel.....

×
×
  • Create New...