Cloud
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Interesting tornado report. Looking like a low CAPE supercell event.
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Amazing supercell pic Paul!
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The near miss clips get more dramatic every year!
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Awesome!
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Chase Day 17 - Slight Risk MT/ND/SD/NE/KS/WY/CO
Cloud replied to Paul Sherman's topic in Storm Chase USA
Maybe western SD for a low tornado risk but some structure in western Nebraska would be the easier chase. -
Certainly an active weekend coming up but longer range models look more positive with a more mobile pattern by the looks.
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The cells west of Woodward look like elevated convection. SW Oklahoma could be the best spot today.
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Last year the season was early, this year the season looks late. I have always liked the last 10 days of May, a good period for producing some action. From memory it was 2004 when the season was late and big. The 2005 season was late as well with June the tornadic month.
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Looks like very good moisture advection/low level jet from next weekeend on.
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yes, looks more positive now for spring chasing than a month or two ago. The snow fall is good.
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Moist air being forced across the Southern Alps creates a pronounced fohn effect in the east of the South Island. With the fohn process moist air yields a higher temperature rise than dry air.
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I reckon the most useful storm chasing tool in the chaser kit is an understanding of meteorology and the local geography. Never stop learning about storms and how they develop and what type of synoptic scenarios are good for storms in your area.
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Looks like a nice supercell image on the radar.
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Nice to see the upper level dynamics looking good this week into the weekend. The skill in chasing will be finding holes in the cap. Maybe the trick is to get as far north on the set ups as possible and play the warm fronts where the upper level air will be a bit cooler. Anyway, I like the look of the weekends set up at this early stage.
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Reports & Pictures 14th May 2012 - Sw Texas
Cloud replied to Paul Sherman's topic in Storm Chase USA
You guys have been catching some impressive structure. -
Models showing a low level jet over the central plains at the weekend. If the upper level flow can get over the top of it there could be a healthy 10% tornado risk. Wishcasting at this stage but definitely could be a set up in the offering there.
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Looks good in SE South Dokata today.
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I have formed the opinion over the years the best chasing in May is after the 20th through to the end of the month. But every season is a bit different.
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Looks slighter better in the long range European BUT the west coast upper low is not progressive.
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I was watching the weather weenies too. The set up never looked that convincing as the GFS and NAM were not in agreement.
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yes, looks like a set up could be there later next week over Oklahoma. There looks to be a small but pronounced upper level system with an LLJ developing. Moisture looks very good. Long range but the gfs did a great job on picking up the recent tornado event.
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The Nebraska target still looks good on the 00Z gfs. The upper level jet is nosing into Nebraska and being undercut by the low level jet. There is good lift there so storms will develop during the afternoon.
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My virtual target would start at Salina in Kansas, so I could keep the Nebraska option open at the start of the day. My instincts say go to Nebraska where the surface low is and better chance of low level directional shear.
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Today looks more of a non traditional set up with a cold WNW upper flow. SPC have a Mod Risk for hail/gusts in W Ok. Gfs looks interesting later this week with a good LLJ developing.
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Interesting that spring has sprung so early in the US with May temperatures on the central and southern plains now. I guess this is due to the persistently positive NAO. I tend to agree with Paul that the severe weather season is a month ahead this year.
