[Virtual Chase Thread 2012]

NWS are saying todays mod risk could be similar to 10 Jan 2008 event, which produced tornadoes in MS. We'll see.

[Arizona Desert Monsoon Chasing]

Time lapse clip of dust storm in Pheonix today.

My link

[Chase 2011 - Day 25 Discussion]

No flat tyres needed today. Let's hope that the tornados miss the built up areas especially around Oklahoma City.

I hope that the refineries around Ponca City don't get hit as well.

I was just admiring the forecast sounding for Ponca City, CAPE about 3000j/kg and 0-3km helicity about 500.

I think there could be major storm chaser convergence in southern Kansas/N Oklahoma.

[2011 Stormchase Chat & Banter]

I just looked at the temps in USA and its frigid there at the moment with single figure temps in Oklahoma/Kansas!! Its the middle of the night though. One reason why I think late season chasing is better, you tend to get warmer weather then.

[Chase 2011 - Day 12 Discussion]

DFW is a great spot for watching storms as you can jump on that inter terminal train and get good panoramas. lol

Today looks very messy in Oklahoma/Kansas.

[Chase 2011 - Day 11 Discussion]

Is that a dry line bulge over North Tx?

[Chase 2011 - Day 9 Discussion]

I was suprised to see so much convection over N Texas today given the cap but it must have been very high based. I chased in the drought of 2006 and remember the high based storms well. Great for lightning

[Model Watch For Tour 2]

I have been keeping a close eye on this, Pete. The high cape values for the start of tour 2 have been very consistent, however as you say the jet stream alignment has been less than favourable. But I have noticed that this is changing and edging into something more favourable as each run passes. Originally, the GFS was predicting a very northern based jet with a slight NW-SE tilt, which would not be favourable at all, now we are seeing signs that the jet stream could fragment as it crosses the USA with the more southerly segment crossing the plains at a more favourable tilt. We are not quite there yet, but at T+180 for the 10th, there is still time for a big change around either way. When one has paid out money in the hope of seeing storms in one particular week, I now realise that this type of model watching is far more nail biting than the usual winter snow watch!!

Keeping my fingers crossed anyway!

And with USA chasing you can get decent storms of fairly weak looking set ups.

[Convective Discussion]

we had thundery rain here at 4.30am.....and doesnt surprise me if we get some action as the sky looks very Thundery

Lapse rates look to steepen during the day as an upper trough moves in with colder upper air. Convective chances will be linked to the amount of heating you can get but it won't need to get overly warm given upper level airmass will be quite cold.

[Chase 2010 - Day 4 Discussion]

SPC have increase the tornado probs to 15%. The dewpoints over Arkansas are hitting 70F now.

[Chase 2010 - Day 3 Discussion]

The drive from Dallas to Topeka is massive and I would be on the road by 7am! Maybe though you drive faster than me!

Good luck with your chasing tour.