joggs
-
Posts
2,507 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by joggs
-
-
51 minutes ago, TEITS said:
When I look at what the models are suggesting from a synoptic point of view compared to what we will see on the ground is disappointing. I feel as though I have been given a gift card as a present only to find sod all on the balance!
Still I do not like the overall tone on here though. Little point in turning your frustrations onto other members. If someone wishes to spend all day viewing the models then that is up to them. Like wise if someone seeks mild or cold weather, thunderstorms or gales then again that is their choice. Same applies to any forecasting technique whether that's teleconnections or using seaweed.
The snow storm which is now modelled south was always likely to happen. Besides locations such as Manchester, Leeds, Doncaster, Humberside could well see substantial snow during Tues/Wed.
So let's be respectful to other members and realise they will be as disappointed as you.
Totally agree TEITS with the finger pointing but one or two do set themselves up for it constantly banging the epic cold drum. Also, the same can be said of the people who just turn up on the mad thread to snipe.
Anyway,I suppose it's a cold week coming up then a mobile set up that I don't think will last long. I also think the models are overdoing the amount of energy coming at us.
The saying "cold,once in, is hard to displace" could be tested.
I suppose longer term there can only be upgrades now.
-
1
-
-
A cold dry week with frosts,apart from the far north and West. I'm knackered after that pointless chase lol.
If it can go wrong,it will for us zzzzzzz
-
4
-
-
Ouch...
Not good output for us coldies for extending the upcoming cold snap.
NA goes frigid and we pay the consequences as per....
I was prepared to give it time but from the end of the upcoming week it appears it's all over
On to the next chase...
-
28 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
Once you get cross model agreement on this kind of hemispheric set up it’s goodnight Vienna on any significant blocking or proper cold spell for at least a few weeks, unfortunate given some of the charts we chased this time last week.
At least a few weeks?.
Can you back that up with evidence please?.
-
2
-
-
How's it looking for our region this week?.
What's everyone's thoughts?.
-
10 minutes ago, IDO said:
Looking at the T210 chart it is horrible; a harbinger of changeable weather for the foreseeable with the tPV circling to the N/NW:
T210:
Fast Forward three days and deja vu:
T306:
Consistent stuff from GFS in FI rather than chaos, and usually that means a strong signal.
It's gone reset mode imo. That fly's against a lot of background signals and in the nearer time it's trending towards UKMO.
Don't but into any det runs after around four days imo
-
3
-
-
5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
This
to this in 5 days…
Ouch
Yes,you just know this spell will probably go out like this
.
Saying that the experts and backgrounds sigs all mention southerly tracking jet and cold outlooks in general.
We'll see.
-
2
-
-
1 minute ago, Bricriu said:
I am sure someone will mention ensembles showing otherwise and that there is no trend, but that's two GFS runs, along with the ECM and EC46 showing a more westerly influence for the final week of January. Also John Holmes indicated this might happen too. On a more positive note any westerly influence will hopefully be brief. I don't think I could take another lengthy Zonal period.
Just hope the next low after mid next week disrupts and keeps us cold.
-
2
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, MJB said:
Serious snow event here with deep snow many hours of falling snow
Almost perfect scenario
Would love the little low to the north to come south and interact with the southern low then the low in the Atlantic to slide towards us and disrupt. Imagine that
-
4
-
-
8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
EXETER KEEP THE FAITH!
Extended update via app, they see the block & hold holding on into February!
Updated early today?
-
2
-
-
Shorter term pain for long term gain on this run,which is what I wanted.
I'd rather keep us all in cold than frontal snow for me.
I know it'll change but that's a great run for me
-
5
-
1
-
-
Sort of a middle ground solution looks likely then?.
ECM picked up on the small high that doesn't let the cold uppers that far south at first.
Snow chances for many after then fI looks like losing cold intensity but thats way out and hope we can go on and shuffle(Tamara's) any slivers of heights to our north with a southerly tracking jet and remain in the cold.
That's the best we can hope for I guess until any northern blocking appears.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:
Gem is holding on better in Greenland, I imagine this run will get snowy later on too
Them beautiful ne ............over Iceland
-
2
-
-
Well, bed for me. I've been a little concerned over the GFS last few days(mentioned on here), and I Personally can't ignore it despite what others say.
Like most say. It's going to turn cold with snow chances and fI on the models do change alot,so that's a positive.
Ideally I'd love the full on northerly option to clear the south coast(less likely) to keep us all in the game.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
-
5
-
-
-
Would the GFS not have the better handling of things over North America later in in the run?.
If the euros trend this way this evening,it could be telling.
-
1
-
-
12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
That’ll do - snow fest
️️️
That is not a snow fest. Very misleading. Could go on to be.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, IDO said:
D10 GFS versus the EC:
I would say the models are struggling. See if the EC can get two runs in a row tomorrow.
We don't want this run to verify or it'll be a few cold days,snow for the favoured few then a look at losing everything that's got us into this position.
-
2
-
-
Underwhelming mo update for me. Wonder if we're far enough north to hang onto the cold air next week.....
-
Sounds like they're not expecting anything major from next week's cold spell. Longevity of the cold spell next week doesn't look too clever. Might have to wait until Feb(strat warming) to shuffle the pack again once the nw blocking disappears.
-
What are the rampers like in the mod thread. The promised land has always stayed around 10 days away. Some of us get told to not stick by the op runs(I get that) then when winter nirvana appears,it's all systems go......
-
3
-
-
The models are trending pretty much the same over the last 5 days or so in my eyes. Promising nirvana at day 10.
No matter how much we all wish for the deep cold,snow,I can't see it coming.
Expectations need to be roped in imo,then if the unexpected does happen..........Boom
-
4
-
1
-
-
Yes,it's always at day 10
You can't say that on that thread though,get lynched lol.
The main culprits ramping away make me laugh. You could see a few days ago it was getting watered down,which I pointed out with some explanation.
I do feel we'll have some decent shots at cold to come though.
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
Control is not great
One day these are great and next not. I get told these are more reliable. Is this true?.
.png.fe1bdccfdfdfe3b76e3f6caf15aebf2a.png)
Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by joggs
Yes. I wonder why a decent breakdown hardly ever occurs anymore. Is it just simply Iberian heights(seem more pronounced )mean we always get the jet too far north creating a wrong angle of attack for a decent breakdown ?!?!