Northern Sky

Feel bad putting a fellow Leeds fan on ignore but its got to be done. In Adams defence he offers a great example of what years of having Ken Bates as the chairman of your football team can do to a person. Btw the Look North and the national forecast looked just peachy for here

I don't see why that should be the case. I'm pretty sure none of the clued up guys on the strat thread have ever said a SSW automatically leads to a wintry spell for the UK. What has been repeatedly stated is that a SSW increases the liklihood of HLB which in turn offers chances for Arctic air to reach lower lattitudes. Whether it hits us or not is another matter. The strat thread has offered us some hope during seemingly endless dross churned out by the models for the last few weeks and importantly I'm amazed by the accuracy of some of the predictions. Hopefully we will get lucky with the cold reaching us but if not, I don't think it should take away, firstly, from the great analysis we have seen on the strat thread and secondly the importance of SWW's on the weather in the northern hemisphere.

Just a quick question. During Nov/Dec we saw a very cold strat which, did not at the time, influence the tropospheric synoptics. Is the rather depressing output we now see in the models due in any way to a lag time effect of these earlier very cold temps? I'm guessing it's rather more complicated than that, but given that strat warmings often take time to affect the trop is it the same for coolings?

I get a little confused regarding lag times involved with different kinds of warming. Am I right in thinking that the warming being shown at day 10 on the GFS and now the ECM would potentially affect the trop sometime around mid/late Dec, or is the type of warming shown likely to result in something more immidiate?Thanks, NS

From what I can gather reading the possibilities offered in the long term teleconections, it has been most likely that a possible pattern change to colder conditions would arise from around mid January? We are now on the 6th so that period is at around 240hrs on the models. Anyone who has followed the charts for a while knows how innacurate the models can be at that time frame. Surely at the moment we should just be looking for potential and possibilities in what are the very far reaches of reliability. I don't know about anyone else, but to me potential and possibilities are what I can see.

The UKMO 144hrs NH chart seems to show a stretching and elongation of the PV accompanied with tentative height rises in the Svalbard region. Surely this is a good thing, or have I got it completely wrong?

Yes I agree with this. The danger to lives from cold weather far exceeds that posed by windy weather and yet most of us would love to see an arctic blast. For me a big part of the fun of watching the models is looking for extremes of weather. I think it goes without saying that I, like everyone else, would hope that nobody came to harm as a result of the weather. Would it be fair to say that the current spell of zonal weather has taken some people by surprise in the sense that it has been cooler than expected? We have had an exciting mix of weather here in north Leeds over the past week including some ice and snow - certainly a vast improvement on the mild zonal spells that characterized the winters of the mid 00's. Tonights ECM continues to show a southerly tracking jet. Could this be a result of lower solar activity?

The tendency of the GFS to overdo the southward progression of colder air is something that has been evident in its output for a long time and many people have commented on it. This tends to be more so in its low resolution output - is this due to an inibility to correctly model the development of shortwaves at this timeframe? I was wondering, given that this seems to be a consistant feature of GFS output, is it something that can be addressed and perhaps rectified, in the programming of the model?

I can't answer for Kold but personaly I really like a good storm. It's all about preferences and at the moment the models look great to me. I'm happy to wait for some real cold and although it's a shame the models always seem to water down the PM air influence, at least we are not (at the moment) looking at endless SW's.

No, I don't agree with this. We could have easily seen a continuation of the pattern we were in or blowtorch SW's. I know BFTP's methods don't fit in with what others think but I've followed this forum for a few years now and his success as a long range forecaster is as good as anyone elses. BFTP said that the last week of November would see a change to colder conditions and that is exactly what looks like happening. As for the models, well they look fine to me. A return to more seasonal conditions looks certain for a while at least. It will be nice to see some wind and rain for a change!

Thanks for that, I'll have a look.

A very familiar set up from the models this morning, showing the continuation of periods of low pressure interspersed with brief ridges. Which has, in my location at least, provided a pretty decent summer, certainly when compared to the washouts of recent years. One thing that has surprised me is that often, what on the face of it look like very unpromising charts dominated by low pressure, have in the real world provided pretty good weather - which to me means sunshine rather than heat. I wonder if anyone can give me tips as to how to read the charts to get an idea of cloud amounts as this seems to be the crucial factor in dertermining if I'll like the weather or not!

Yes a nice run from the ECM, which (being no fan of great heat and humidity) would bring ideal weather for me. It does seem that the teleconnections highlighted by the likes of Glaciar Point have proved to be pretty spot on.

Yes, the models showing a continuation of the cool theme. And I must say, I'm rather enjoying the weather at the moment - cool, fresh and pleasant in the sun. I'd be happy for it to continue through the summer although it is very dry and the precipitation amounts forecast, for here at least, seem to continually overestimate the rainfall amounts.

Thank's for the reply - I think! - doesn't sound too good. Not much to cheer those of us looking for warmth in the latest output. The ECM at 144hrs seems to show a direct flow from the north: would I be right in thinking that such a chart, were it to come off, would bring sunshine and showers rather than drizzle and sustained murk? I've been following the model output discussion with great interest for a couple of years and hope to chip in now and again as I learn more.

Hello to all! Forgive me for asking what my be an obvious question to those with far more knowledge than I, but after reading GP's post am I right to assume that the projected weather patterns would result in a wind direction from a N or NE direction? If this is the case, how would this compare to the recent washout summers which featured winds from the SW? I assume things would remain on the cool side but what would the sunshine levels be in comparison to a more SW'ly dominated regime?