nick sussex

The GFS and UKMO handle that eastern USA trough differently and also low pressure to the nw of the UK, I'd wait to see which way the ECM goes as that had a different view this morning with some energy cutting se towards the UK. Both the GFS and UKMO stick to their morning trends so they both can't be right.

Yes I really shouldn't complain, at least I did get to see some notable cold and a little snow, as we head towards March its always a bit disappointing as you realize that the winter is behind you and that you need some great synoptics to deliver. Maybe March might deliver a few surprises.

Just dealing with the higher resolution part of the GFS it still goes a different route compared to the ECM. The GFS moves that low to the nw east and allows a weak rodge to develop to the nw, the ECM phases that eastern USA trough with that low to the nw and cuts some energy se'wards before hand with a weakish ridge to the ne. The agreement today across the models is just with that developing low heading out of the ne USA, after that uncertainty but still its hard to imagine the northern arm of the jet playing ball to deliver anything of note.

I'd agree with this, unless you get a piece of the PV dropping into Russia injecting some deep cold into the flow as its advected west then it's hard to get that convective sunshine and snow showers easterly for the UK. It's especially evident now as that surface cold has been removed from the continent and its hard to develop cold pools as you head towards spring. So a northerly or ne flow is much better especially as the increase in solar energy brings more widespread snow showers with those cold downdrafts bringing some lively weather.

Regarding the eastern USA troughing, although we don't have the forecaster input NOAA maps this evening, we do have the forecasters view upto 168hrs for the USA and Canada. This is their take on that trough: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav.html It certainly looks to support the ECM 12hrs/GFS 18hrs in terms of a deepish reasonably amplified troughing, unfortunately we can't see whether that trough phases with the low to the nw as in the ECM or if that low remains separated to the nw of the UK. I think we have to be realistic here, that GFS 18hrs run is very long odds, the ECM does something different and probably more plausible by phasing with that low to the nw and driving some energy ne'wards allowing the ridge further north but the northern arm of the jet not relenting afterwards. It does however come down to the exit speed of that trough and its amplitude, that really is our last hope to derail the zonal express.

Bless the GFS 18hrs run for at least trying! After days of the most dismal output imaginable from a cold perspective it's decided to throw out one of its specials. You could say it at least has support for the more amplified eastern USA trough from the ECM but really the chances of this run verifying are minimal. At least it gives us something to talk about until the inevitable let down in the morning!

My interest level is now raised to a 4/10! I think its becoming apparent that we need to see that low exiting the ne USA as developed as possible. The GFS 18hrs run scrapes more interest than we've seen for days but will it still be there tomorrow?

Looking at the extended ECM ensembles they're not really that supportive of a big change: http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default.asp?type=eps_pluim Although high pressure may get further north with time I suspect the cold air is going to end up in southern and se Europe, the spreads do show some support though for lower pressure in the northern Med.

I think the winter in this part of France can be summed up as two weeks of very cold conditions with some snow earlier in February and thats it, the rest of the winter has been utter rubbish. It was interesting reading the Meteo France analysis of the recent cold conditions, lack of wider snow cover and too much wind negated against more records being broken. However some February records were broken especially towards central and sw regions, one thing that stands out initially was the powdery nature of the snow and so many night times hitting close to the -10 c mark. The winter climate down here can often be very volatile, you can have warm southerlies and temps easily approaching 18c especially helped by the fohn effect then a few days later sub zero maxima. Although easterlies often lose their bite into March I've still recorded a sub zero March maximum in 2010, that came off the infamous Med low which produced snow in Barcelona and Valencia and several very cold days. In fact the bizarrest weather occured that same spring where we had temps of 29c at the end of April, followed by the coldest May day ever recorded in this region on the 4th where rain unbelievably turned to snow. Although I'm at 1,250ft thats still an exceptional event.

Not much ensemble support for the ECM operational run in terms of it placing the high that far north at 168hrs: http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

The ECM briefly offered a little interest at 168hrs but then the northern arm of the jet remembered thats not allowed and rolled back in over the top! At least my interest levels were raised from zero to the dizzy heights of 3 out of 10! Unfortunately to get any interest for the UK the pattern needs to be shunted about 1000 miles further north! Overall the output continues to resemble mid winter and not what you'd expect at the end of February, at this rate the PV will be going strong in May only to then implode into a sea of northern blocking which arrives just in time to deliver another summer washout for the UK.

I wouldn't say that because of this winter that theres likely to be another run of those mild winters we saw before the recent upturn in cold synoptics, what really negated against a decent winter from the outset was the stratosphere running well below average which blew up that PV. That meant we were always playing catch up and even though we saw those strat warmings even though they weakened the PV we never really saw it displaced for any length of time, they did however help to bring about that intense cold over Europe, unfortunately just too much energy in the northern arm of the jet prevented the cold from backing sufficiently west to cover the whole of the UK and kept the coldest air just to the south over mainland Europe.

I think what stands out so far from this winter is the complete lack of even a brief Arctic northerly, even some of the many previous mild winters had a couple of northerly shots. This winter its been nigh on impossible to get any ridging into Greenland to even deliver a northerly toppler. If it hadn't have been for this exceptional recent two week cold spell for Europe then this winter IMO would have gone down as the worst since the 1988/89 horror show. I remember many rubbish mild winters when living in the UK but I can't think of one in recent times which failed to produce one northerly toppler.

Jean avez vous vu cette de Parisien? Je pense qu'il est necessaire pour ajouter deux jours, le Grand Froid fini 12 Fevrier. Il est tres interessant de voir les episodes precedant de Grand Froid en France. L'article complet: http://www.leparisien.fr/environnement/en-direct-grand-froid-53-departements-en-vigilance-orange-11-02-2012-1856533.php?fb_xd_fragment#?=&cb=f277e9ea3b568f6&relation=parent.parent&transport=fragment&type=resize&height=31&ackData[id]=1

I think the key thing to note from that extended outlook is the suggestion of above average rainfall for central and southern England, you would not get this with a strong Azores high and a low track past Scotland so this would suggest the jet being further south with low pressure moving in at a more nw/se angle, some blocking would therefore be likely to the ne given this.

Another cold day here in sw France, although positively balmy compared to many days of sub zero maxima which we've had for much of the last 12 days. We're expected to hang onto the cold till tomorrow with some snow off an occlusion which slides sw and then its set to warm up on Wednesday. It's been a notable cold spell here and makes up for a rubbish December and January.

Yes she's great; even if she's forecasting mild muck, somehow its more bearable! Maybe she could give Carol Kirkwood a few tips regarding the wardrobe department! they also have a guy doing the forecast on some days to give her a chance to get out to Chanel and Dior and do some shopping!lol

The BBC need to ship out some of the drab presenters and get someone in like Mary Ramos from CNN, shes great fun and full of life, or they could go for a bit of class like this lady from TF1 here in France! Take a look: http://videos.tf1.fr/infos/previsions-flash-meteo/tf1-les-previsions-meteo-du-12-mai-2010-5850190.html

Thanks, judging by that I'll have to beg forgiveness from the UKMO as that clump of precip suddenly shoots west! lol We'll just have to see what happens over the next few radar returns!

Yes but I'm not paid money like the UKMO! Even the BBC weather at 1.30pm was wrong regarding where the precip currently is, maybe the rest of those radar returns weren't shown as they are evaporating , either that or theres a strike at the UKMO and no one told Nick Miller to go online and check the latest radar!

Does anyone speak Dutch?, isn't there a forecast movement of precip on this site: http://winter.buienradar.nl/sneeuwradar.aspx

Maybe the UKMO forecasters are all out to lunch and can't see that their forecast is beginning to unravel! Unless that second clump of precip over the North Sea suddenly veers west then they might have to change some of their warnings.

It's really quite a confusing picture when you look at the latest radar, one area of precip running sw through the ne of England towards the Midlands and another over the North Sea running towards Norfolk, if you look at the fax chart for tomorrow morning at 6am it does look like an occlusion has worked sw aswell as the warm front, so I wonder if that second precip is that occlusion. The fax chart for Midday might be able to shed some light on the situation.

Are you worried now? lol My advice stick to hoping for snow rather than freezing rain especially if you have to get in a car and drive somewhere!

It won't be when that ice glazes power lines and you end up with no electricity! freezing rain is one of the most dangerous aspects of winter weather, ask people in ne Canada where many people had no power for weeks in sub zero temps, the ice brought down power lines in one of the most famous ice storms of the 20th Century. http://canadaonline.about.com/cs/weather/p/icestorm.htm Of course that was an extreme event but just goes to show for a country that is used to lots of snow freezing rain is altogether a different proposition.