nick sussex

Thats a wonderful set of charts! shame its unlikely to happen, but you never know!

Just for you Tamara the gem takes the low further south. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?...&hour=048hr

I'm not sure whether the gfs has got the early stages correct here but the overall trend continues that of this morning and backs the ecm and a few of the cannon fodder models. For those that love the atlantic its heartbreak this evening as its decided to go and bother someone else. The PV looks to remain over canada and the ridge from the east is likely to back westwards, all those weak lows in the atlantic is just a sign the gfs loses its way but the fact remains that the trend shouts extended cold spell after a brief lull. Good riddance to the atlantic and its pesky mild mush, see you at some point in the future but not anytime soon!

I'm not sure where exactly Roscommon is. But the situation is still quite complex and theres still time for more changes in the models. It is really all to do with the exact track of the low and at this stage a difference in track either more north or south is likely and so best wait till this evening when we'll have a much clearer idea.

I feel exhausted with all this model drama! but i'd rather have this drama than the flatlining boredom of crap atlantic mild muDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me the 48hrs is much better even though its not as good for me down here but I'm just happy to see the longer term prospects improve. I've been lucky already here in January with my best snowfall since moving down here, so i'm not greedy and hope that theres no downgrades at this stage, to be honest I'm quite happy with sunshine and frost, snow is a bonus in the uk. Its a positive that the feature has split into two cells and should prolong any snow for those lucky locations. Of course as the model output is ever changing lets hope it keeps this at least and gives a good snowfall to as many locations as possible.

This just shows how ever changing the current model output is, I can hardly keep up with it all, but that 48hrs chart is much better for our longer term prospects. The PV is better positioned and its associated low, even though I'm not really favoured on thursday unless the low is further south I don't care, I just want to see a longer colder spell and no return to that pesky atlantic. Good luck to everyone for their snow some locations could be very lucky indeed if that front slows even further.

UPGRADE ALERT!!! Even better news for snow prospects for thursday. The latest ukmo 06hrs run looks to split the feature into two separate cells,likely to slow its movement ne wards and give some lucky people an even longer period of snow! Heres the 06hrs 48hr ukmo http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=048hr And the 54hr chart for upto the same time from the 00hrs run http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=054hr The ukmo run this model as an addition to their normal 144hrs run for 06hrs and 18hrs but only upto 48hrs, also note on the latest data the better upstream pattern. This is really good news as its a big improvement on events upstream and lets hope this is a sign for tonights runs.

Just to show how quickly the models are backtracking in terms of taking the jet further south heres todays fax chart for midday friday and the one from yesterday for the same time. http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack2a.gif http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack3.gif

At this rate of backtracking we'll have a full blown easterly by next week as the models shift the jet even further south and realize as they get closer to the time that now is not the time to drag this on, just get to the easterly and be done with it!

The lows in the atlantic are further south with more forcing from the north as the ridge builds westwards from the east, as long as the PV right to the ne of scandi doesnt head south then theres only one way this run is going and thats cold!

It looks like the atlantic lows are further south and the overall pattern better, although the shorter term looks a little less exciting but at this range we should stick to the ukmo fax charts. Anyway this is all gearing up to trend towards a better longer term outlook.

No one said its the champion model! all models go through good and bad patches, the ecm is primarily used for medium term forecasting, for accuracy upto 72hrs the ukmo and its fax charts IMO are the best, the ukmo have never in all my years of model watching modified their data towards the ecm upto 72hrs and because of the human input garnered from years of experience the fax charts are head and shoulders above any model as they take into account alot more than just simply the output from the model. The ecm has picked a trend post 144hrs and has stuck with it this morning with growing support albeit from a few of the cannon fodder models. The most slating over the last few days by NOAA has been reserved for one model and thats the gfs, however all the models have been too progressive and all have some criticisms aimed at them, they're not perfect thats why forecasters have to use their best judgement in seeing where they could be going wrong. And anyway it looks like you'll be staying cold for the foreseeable future which hopefully will mean you're not too grumpy in here!

Morning KW well I agree with your thoughts regarding the progressive nature of some of the models, the key this morning is the ecm which sticks to its guns, as you said the gem is sensational but IMO a bit over the top. I wonder whether NOAA will be slating the operational runs of quite a few of the models today as they did yesterday. They expect the PV to remain over canada and the east pacific ridge to hold whilst transferring slightly further ne with energy going into the STJ, if we get pressure rises to the north and east then that would be a great outlook.

Overall this morning those looking for cold to hang on have something to cheer about and those looking for milder weather also have something that pleases in the models. So heres the list. UKMO cold and wintry till 120hrs then milder GFS cold and wintry till 120hrs then milder ECM cold and wintry a slight lull then colder again GEM sensational GME excellent NO GAPS cold and wintry till 120hrs then milder So something for everyone but seeing as most of the people on here like cold weather lets hope the trend picked up by the ecm yesterday and continued today by the ecm, gem and gme is the correct call.

Morning Roger as much as I would love to believe the gem this morning its not really backed by the ukmo or gfs, although having said that its view of taking the jet further south is picked up by the ecm in the later timeframe as this builds a decent scandi high later on. I still think we havent seen the last of the changes and as long as the PV sticks to canada and doesnt head out into the atlantic then I think we've got a chance at seeing further cold weather next week. The models have been desperate to break down the east pacific ridge but have failed on numerous occasions, if that holds and the PNA doesnt go negative then this would certainly help matters downstream for us.

If you're still around Steve what are your thoughts on the slating that some of the models got yesterday in discussions over at NOAA, the most slated was the gfs 12hrs operational run. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html The funniest thing is mention of the polar front at the bottom of the page sitting near florida and cuba! I think the expectation over in the usa is that the ridge over the east pacific will hold but drift north with a strong subtropical jet forming rattling lows east aross the southern usa into the atlantic, if we get blocking to the north this could get interesting but we really need the ecm to stick to yesterday evenings solution.

Hi Steve hope you had a good time up there in Iceland, its nice to see you back seeing as theres loads to talk about at the moment. Going back to what you said in your post the latest radio 5 live weather with everton fox certainly was ramping up a possible signiificant snow event on thursday but I missed the areas mentioned as the bloody dog barked at that moment! talk about bad timing! anyway I agree with you things have been pulled a little further south. I dont think I'm that favoured here but north of the M4 looks like a good marker.

To be honest Brian its a case of not banking on any snow until within 24hrs before because of the synoptic setup, currently my region is borderline and tomorrow nights shallow feature may well skirt off into the channel but as Catherine Tate says am I bothered! :lol: I've seen it so many times with this type of set up in the past thinking yippee snows on the way and then feeling all glum as the bbc forecasters utter those awful words, the front is either alot further south and has slipped into the channel or too far north and I got rain so with lots more experience now after my model anorak years I will never bank on snow in these situations till basically the same day! And I would advise everyone else to follow this advice, not to sound preachy but it really is the most difficult of forecasts for the ukmo to have to make.

I'm quite happy to go along with the ukmo even if it sticks rain in my region as I just feel its less prone currently to these mood swings of the gfs. The problem is that with 4 gfs runs per day and 4 different projections of who could get snow I'm surprised we havent had to set up an emergency gfs fall out helpline!

The only major model that wasnt slated this evening at NOAA was the ukmo, the gfs 12hrs operational run was so badly slated it was almost embarrassing, its throwing too much energy into the atlantic causing events upstream to be thrown further north and east, it also has apparently called the east pacific wrong basically its all at sea and anyone hoping for it to be more accurate upto 72hrs than the ukmo needs a reality check! The ukmo has been the most consistent over the last few days and with the human input we get in the fax charts I would advise everyone to stick to this for the timebeing and then that way this model watching wont turn into a complete car crash of emotions, best wait for the gfs to settle down and get the upstream pattern correct before placing too much faith in it, sometimes models go through good and bad patches its just having a bit of a wobble a the moment just as some of the other models do from time to time.

It looks like the gfs has imploded as I'm still stuck on 72hrs, this could be a good thing then that way we don't have to put up with any more of its nonsense, looks like another run that NOAA will have to ditch just like the 12hrs! The gfs is currently performing very poorly and is not to be trusted, and certainly not in the shorter term where the ukmo fax charts are the only thing that people should be concentrating on. Anyway at least it keeps the forum going and gives us something to talk about, but I hope people don't place all their faith in this model.

I dont want to say too much because sometimes every word is jumped on in here and comes back to haunt you! But when you think of where this all started a week ago and the charts on offer at the time, we've come along way, if the PV remains stuck over canada and pressure rises to the east with the jet tracking further south then this week will look like a very tame affair compared to what could be on offer then. We'e got a long way to go but dont let anyone suggest on here that we're not close to something special, and the ramping police can muzzle it as I'm not in the mood to be silenced!

Kold the discussions at NOAA are for forecasts running from thursday to next monday on the link I provided, I suspect they've completely discounted the 12hrs operational run judging by how much the gfs got wrong in their view, the ecms main criticism was at day 3, but its the gfs which was slated for what it does in the east pacific. Heres the link for the de bilt ensembles, actually there are lots of colder solutions from next weekend and the operational looks always at the top end of the ensemble members even into the longer timeframe. http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png Look at some of the really cold solutions from as early as the weekend and you've got to say the trend is positive to take the jet even further south and see that high bring some colder air in from the east as it forces low pressure to track even further south, we're close here KW to something special, and I dont care if that sounds like a ramp, we're close to a terrific set up, we just need a bit of luck now.

Heres the link for you. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

The ecm De Bilt ensembles are out, the ecm was a mild outlier for the end of the week and what with the gfs 12hrs operational run being slated by NOAA then back the ukmo to verify! looks like great news for some lucky people up north. I'd back the ukmo upto 120hrs to deliver as the trend looks to take the jet further south, as long as its not too far south then the north looks like getting some fun weather, of course dont shoot the messenger if things end up being a little further south. As with supporting a football team each region is cheering on the synoptics that will deliver for it except me as I'm an impartial observer!lol