nick sussex

Well in a week of chopping and changing it just has that feel of yet more drama, this is great if you're a model anorak but not so good if all you want too know is whether it will snow! The best by far for snow is the gfs as it brings a shortwave in then leaves enough residual cold behind to deliver another possible snow event as the main low heads in from the atlantic. I know most people are just concentrating on the snow but I'm a little more interested in what happens afterwards, the way the breakdown happens is therefore important for our longer term prospects and this is why the ecm dangles a carrot at 144hrs and then again at 168hrs with pressure building westwards from russia towards scandanavia. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html The question is will this lead to anything? the later charts push the lows in but in a week of model drama is there any more left?

I think the ukmo further outlook is fair enough given the overall model output. Of course everyone would love to see them go for just cold but at present its the most sensible and realistic outlook, that is for the timebeing. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

Thats an absolute classic TM ! One of the best posts I've read on here in ages, by the way its snowing here again! just joking!

Overall I'm quite happy with this cold snap, had 6cms of snow on tuesday night and its snowing as I speak, still have some snow cover from the other night. Temperature wise nothing special, I've had much colder weather here but without the snow, in fact the snowfall the other night was the best since I moved down here from london 5 years ago. Unfortunately yet again in the uk any snow is never widespread and because of the warmer than average ssts moderated the cold. Additionally the problem was the cut off of the proper arctic flow before it had even a chance to really settle in and much of our sourcing of air was therefore not as cold as it could have been, I think we're paying the price for the very mild winter so far and we're lagging behind in terms of getting those ssts down and so it might be yet again that we see the best conditions at the turn of winter into spring.

Started here around 3.15 am, just stopped now, around 6cms of lying snow , the most since I moved down here from sw london. It looks like oxfordshire and parts of west sussex where I am had the best snowfall, makes a change!

Yes I remember it well. Typical that I slept through it all only to be shocked in the morning, it was very localized however, although we did get several cms here. As for March becoming a winter month, a definite no, we may well get some wintry weather during this month but its spring, its only that in recent years we have had some good snowfall in March but I can remember many mild Marches. Its always frustrating when you get the perfect set up too late in the season but in the UK you just make the best of it whenever you get some snow.

I can understand the criticism of the ensembles as by and large theres always quite alot of scatter later in the timeframe however I think they can be useful when looking at general trends, normally when scatter shows up within 7 days this shows the borderline situation as in the current output with colder air to the east of the uk and only small changes either shifting it completely away or bringing it further west. The use of superensembles which are generated using several different models and have better results looks the way forward but, as a forecasting tool in terms of probability the normal ensembles are still important and give the forecaster an idea of how likely any given situation is within the more reliable timeframe. The current uncertainty is down to what happens over greenland with indecision about what the NAO and AO will do and so it might be a few days yet before any definite trend is picked up. :lol:

You are on good form today SF , and me and ramping hotspots, what ever gave you that idea! I think I'd class myself as a middle of the road snow ramper with occasional doses of realism!

Very funny post SF, but I think even your best efforts at avoiding ramping are likely to fail. The reason being that in the UK even unrealistic snow hoping is better than none at all and is what keeps this forum busy during the winter. So I've decided that SATSIGS is bad for netweather in terms of hits on the site and so have banned your organisation I'm sure Paul would back me here!

In response to Enforcers post who has suffered more snow let downs than you can shake a stick at! I agree with lots of that, however I think the words hope springs eternal come to mind for many on here who like the cold and snow. I suppose one could find just as many reasons why the winter would be mild aswell as cold but being as that alot of people on here like the cold and snow during winter then I suppose we all suffer to a certain degree of selective hearing, hear the good stuff ignore the bad! Where is the fun and interest in finding every possible milder outcome when we all realize that the status quo in the UK is by and large crappy mild winters with hardly any snow anyway. Of course good discussion should cover the possibilities of both scenarios but wheres the interest in seeking the mild option when its normally the case anyway. More than likely this will be another snowless winter for many but on the other hand it might not. I'm afraid its just human nature that people trend towards what they want to happen even if its the longshot. Half the fun is the journey along the way, ie: the discussions on here, the humour, all the people holding their breath for the next installment of the gfs rollercoaster! so even if the journey ends up at the wrong station no harm done and no ones died!

Morning Jonesye Well I agree with you there, this is it zonal or isnt it always brings such differing opinions on here.

I wondered how long it would be before the old chestnut( full blown atlantic or not would appear on here! ) This always ends up with differing views as to what people decide is full blown zonality or not. IMO with no strong jet piling into scandi and higher than normal heights over greenland then in my humble opinion this is not a typical autumn pattern or proper zonal weather. Anyone want to argue.....!!! If you must do it nicely!

Well what a shock this morning, woke up to about 3cm of lying snow

I think this CET thing could run and run as no measure seems to please everyone. So for example a scenario that could have happened last month was for arguments sake what if the last week had been even more above average and so March had come out at say average, just looking at this statistic would have suggested that the month was pretty non descript, however the truth was markedly different. The use of the 61-90 average as a comparison to me seems to be a decision borne out of the need to prove a point about global warming and not to make a sensible comparison. The logical thing would be to use a comparison that includes as much reliable info as possible and not that cherry picked to prove a certain point. Going back to my uni days, a statistical analysis is always better done with a bigger sample group, so the more years used weatherwise the better so why with so much data are we still using a measure that ignores the last 15 years. What is wrong with simply saying a certain month was above or below average as compared since 60 and include all the data since then.

There are always arguments about which CET period to use and by using the 61-90 seems to be skewing things, IMO this is used by some to back theories of global warming as its obvious we will always find it more difficult to get below average months using that comparison. At what point will the met office finally ditch that comparison? the year 2100 :lol: . Why dont they just combine both to take account of both periods and give a truer representation of recent years, it seems the use of one or the other will always cause argument.

I think people have misinterpreted my thoughts here. The point I was trying to make was how difficult it is to get a very below average calendar month whereas we seem to in the last few years managed very below average four weekly periods. In no way was I suggesting that monthly CET should be ditched as this is the only way to get proper records available for easy comparison.Where did I suggest that we ditch the CET?!!! And also last november IMO was skewed by a cold ending where the overriding memory of the month for me was mild, I'm not as some suggest obsessed by cold weather but just stating an obvious point that the CET is not always a good indicator of the overall months weather.

So at the end of the day the march CET will be below average but nothing significant which shows how sometimes the CET isnt really a true representation of the overall month. The last 8 days really skewed the mean especially because of the high night time min however I suspect there will be wide regional variations with scotland coming out much more below average as the mild air never really impacted here. I think this month shows how difficult it is to get a very below average monthly CET whereas its much easier to get a four week period crossing over two months where the mean is well below average.

Well looks like my over the top CET prediction has been shot to pieces :blush: . It was on dodgy ground to begin with and has now crumbled completely! Its a shame that March will now not manage to look any great shakes with temps now well into the mild category but even at the mildest outcome for the week will still be at least 1c below average. I'm looking forward to some nice warm sunshine now but fear that April will be on the cold side aswell.

Thanks for that Mr D.

Morning Mr D A small favour could you add my CET pred to your list and let me know on your updates what is needed to get near that 2c mark and just for a laugh what do we need to get into the top 10 coldest March's ever? And going the whole hog whats the coldest ever March CET with reliable records. Thanks again

Well I'm going to court controversy and go for a March CET of around 2c, and with a bit of luck perhaps lower.

I always forget to post in here so although I can't compete with aberdeen , had a snow shower of course whilst I was on this comp and didnt realize till shockingly saw some lying snow outside, it just goes to show how timing is important at this time of year, snow settled and now already down to -1.7 here, lovely end to the official winter .

In this part of the world the lack of any real mild air has been quite noticeable with us alternating between average to cold, the lack of rainfall is however a big worry but i'm sure the uk will find a way to sort that out with probably a wet spring. Unfortunately even though as a whole we have had many more cold spells than recent winters snow has been very rare, i think alot of people would take an overall above average winter as long as there are some snowy spells within this. The snow that some places saw after xmas really hides the fact that its been for many a winter that has flatlined in terms of excitement. From my own perspective I have enjoyed the abundance of frost and really quite low night time temps and beautiful sunny days as I really don't like wind and rain, so for me I've enjoyed this winter so far. Snow wise its been pretty poor with just a few dustings and only 4 days of snow falling. This winter so far IMO could be summed up in terms of snow,synoptically promised much but failed to deliver and so in that degree its not unusual, synoptically however and for overall cold it has been different from recent winters.

I think the met office update is hugely encouraging especially as the wording wasnt as vague as they sometimes use. And isnt it nice for a change to see that the milder weather returning is a low probablity, its usually the other way round. The ecm ensembles i suspect is what clinched it for the met office as these were very good.

Morning all Well some light snow here, just a dusting but i suspect higher up they probably have a covering