sbiggs
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Posts posted by sbiggs
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Carrying on the discussion of the amazing disappearing CAPE and lift, the trend I've seen the past few days, is when I wake in the morning, Thurs shows a CAPE of between 700-1100 J/kg and lift of -4 for my area, and torrential rain forecast. By the time the afternoon models are run, Thursday has 0 CAPE and 9 lift, and Friday shows about 500 j/kg and -2 lift, whereas the morning showed nothing for friday.
This situation has been the same for three days on the trot now, showing end of week storms swapping and changing between tomorrow and friday. It can't make up its mind, I've never known such an unpredictable and poor storm season as this year. I'm still hopeful to have just 1 storm. I'd say the season is just past half way through... so frustrating though!
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think its game over for me. The only thing i can see heading this way is in the bristol channel and wont get here til early morning!
Unless anything forms in front just north of reading, then i give in too.
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I'm speaking to a few printers at the moment...
hope you feel better soon
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looks quite promising now (although hope i dont speak to soon)
the northern rain band is shifting southward (ie, the line has more rain starting afresh on the south tip) , so hopefully might hit me, at the same time as the southerly band! :unsure: (wishful thinking)
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for the forecasters. is there now a big probability that no "thundery downpours" are going to happen tonight, only rain? or is there something else you can see happening
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Mate it was over for Cambridge from the start, Cambridge was never expected to see anything thundery today, I don't think it was even expected to see rain!
im actually about 20 miles NW of cambridge, and can now actually see quite a menacing cloud coming....
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i think the lower band of rain will pass north of me, and it looks to me like everything in england is dying down? Is it over before it even began?
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Hello,
There is a long line approaching us gradually from the west - you'll need to be looking at this for when it gets near.
It is currently to the west of Northampton, running downwards towards the Swindon and Bristol areras...
hopefully might develop more on its journey here.
normally from fen drayton i can see the tops of towers or darker skies as far as MK and northampton, but a cant see anything yet.
sure it'll jump out soon
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currently on a high spot looking to the horizon and can see barely anything. looks like the big stuff is heading to lincolnshire
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i would've thought the thread would've been a bit busier than this. Maybe later...
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It is often deceptive when trying to work out the direction that a trough travels. If you have NW extra radar and overlay the wind vectors at 1000hPa and 700 hPa it immediately becomes apparent that the lower winds are undercutting the trough from the NW. This is not apparent though as the trough approaches as thel ower and upper winds are coming from the SW. So, ultimately the trough heads SE whilst the pulses of rain travel NE along the trough.
Ah I see. So as the rain moves SE, the trough moves NE, bringing with it the CAPE, and lift. and they are heading for a collision over central, southern, and eastern England which is where the storms come into things. (Hope I've got that right)
I love these forums. Most forums "newbies" are always shouted at when they don't know much, but everyone here is so helpful and I've already learnt so much! Thanks guys!
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Surface trough moving SE forming a line of showers across N and W Wales and NW England, this trough likely to be the focus for storms to develop this afternoon across central, sothern and eastern areas of England.
looks like its moving NE though?
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I'm gunna do a warning for West/ parts of E england
WARNING Issued: 16:05 :lol: :lol: TYPE: Heavy rain / thunder:excl:
:lol: VALID: 15/7/10 :excl:
I used to do this a while ago...
Take care when driveing / travleing across england and wales
is this a genuine one? how do you know?
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got some towering clouds with whispy tops around the area now which have formed within the last hour or so. In particular the one over Milton Keynes which is coming this way.
Surely a towering cumulonimbus with an off direction whispy top is a thunder cloud. but theres no thunder in it!
also, just thought i'd check the BBC rainfall map, and am i seeing that right for scotland tonight? snow?
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just out and about in camb and im still seeing small low clouds and scud being sucked un into the storm clouds that seem currently over wellingborough. does that mean these storms are still picking up strength?
something for tonight?
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can see a heavy band of rain to the cambourne area in cambs which is coming towards me. nothing in the sense of flashes or bangs, but looks torrential none the less
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Lol - there's a few of us here, including one within shouting distance of me :o
do you you any great places to view the skies? I regularly go to fen drayton nature reserve as you can see for miles in all directions.
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clouds definitely forming nicely here. first thing this morning was hazy cloud. Now there are clear breaks in the cloud, of which the clouds are bulking up. i can feel it forming in the air...
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For anyone who hasn't yet tried out the Net Weather radar... I strongly suggest you try it, even if you only buy a month's subscription, it's well worth it in these events.
funny you say that, ive done just that about 2 hours ago. I started off using meteox but got fed up with all the "noise" to the east of east anglia. I then used rain today but i find it difficult to gauge exactly where the rain is and how heavy it is as its just shades of yellow and red. much prefer the blue to purple scales.
see how it compares today if things get going... well excited for possibly the first storm of the year for me!
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if thats anything to go by, ill be waiting til 7pm for any rain! is there potential for the storms to continue tonight?
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Oh I think I understand. So in a sense, the higher in the diagram, the higher the atmosphere, cause I cant remember the last time the surface pressure was under 950 let alone 100mb! That makes sense. As I have noticed these graphs quite alot where the lines pretty much are side by side and the wind "thingys" face that same direction in a blue colour, that would indict very stable conditions.
Am I also right in thinking the higher dew point, and more potential there is? Also do the green red and blue lines indicate anything, as well as the yellow numbers in the background of the graph?
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Would agree with that forecast, Nick. Perhaps the potential for a severe threat a little further west, but best overlap of instability and vertical wind shear towards the east. An interesting forecast Skew-T for Cambridgshire from the 12z output:
From this sounding it would suggest conditions over this location and places further north look favourable for strong convective gusts and marginally large hail. Is an interesting setup indeed, and would think there's reasonable chance of some thunderstorms to have severe characteristics over towards that region.
sounds good although a novice at weather stuff, what does the graph mean, and now its closer the time, can you be more specific in cambs where this severe potential could be. I'm dead centre of cambs, and can travel. Will promise to get some pics and videos.
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just joined... Supercells? where?
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cant believe it. once again everything misses here!!
the rain band actually parted as it approached, and then joined up again after it had past.
mother natures got a grudge again me i think.
WARNING Issued: 16:05 :lol: 
General Storm Discussion Thread
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
http://www.weather2day.com/radar/uk/23
this help?