kold weather

Very wet day here, upto 30mm here now which makes it one of the wettest days of the last 6 months and probably the wettest day of the winter thus far. Looking at the models we are about to go from a very wet spell, into a very dry spell in the next 7-10 days! May not have too much more in the way of rainfall this month after Sunday...kind of like December was very front loaded. Also probably the windiest I've seen in this area since moving here in mid 2017.

If I remember correctly this was a failed easterl (proper beast was forecast to start), one of the classic that ended up mainly in Europe. I was in Paris the next weekend and still bitter there, night time temperature was about -10c, up the Eiffel tower it was a bit colder again. Add in the wind chill that night and it was roughly -17c feeling. Just about as cold as I can ever remember feeling up there. The snow event was decent, but a little lost to the sands of time now when compared with some of the big events from 2009-2013. Quite a good era for snowfalls it has to be said

In all fairness it WAS above average for Jan for a vast part of the USA, maybe not toasty but above average overall. As Ryan Maue said, 3 cold days do not a cold month make... Anyway as BA said fairly decent agreement of an attempt at a -ve NAO towards the last week of Feb. It would be unusual even in a very +ve NAO for there not to be at least one decent -ve spell in there, which hasn't yet happened.

Perhaps more interestingly is that after this wet week we are back with quite a dry outlook. Any lengthy dry spell in the summer may bring some water troubles for this neck of the woods, especially as we did have that protracted summer last year.

Weak 994mbs closed low on the high res version. Totally different from 12z icon and 06z ECM. GFS seems more realistic in terms of intensity but we will see.

Cornwall gets 100mph+ gusts at 87hrs on this run, south coast similar. Track of the low just stays far enough south to keep the most severe winds in the channel. SE still gets widespread 70mph+ even in that case. Snow similar places as last event but not as much due to it being fairly quick moving and really only the back part of the system. However snow a total side event compared to the wind event potential on this run. (A touch further north and it's basically a 87 reduex).

Man that low is severe on 12z icon. Really do need that tracking into the channel. I know it reduces snow opportunity but you really don't want yo be on the south side of the low...you'd basically be looking at a one in 10-20 year wind event in that setup.

Only runs to 90hrs, but looks like it's moving into the SW and moving ENE. Probably south of 00z.

06z ECM still has a deep low coming towards the south at 90hrs, probably snow for Midlands. That is not the main story. Winds on south side of low is 65kts sustained. Winds at 850hpa often give a clue to wind gusts, and those are at 100kts. Wind gusts probably 100-105mph at surface. Severe wind storm rather than snow would likely be the case.

ECM ensembles ate pretty bullish about snow chance on Sunday, large majority have something. Location is very much up in the air. S.Midlands southwards is just favoured on the ensembles though there are a decent number further north as well. 06z ICON main story is probably winds. 90-105mph gusts in the south coast on that run, locally even a touch more

Yet in the last 10 years we have had the 2nd coldest December in 350+ years of records, a March that was ranked 14th coldest which puts it up with historic cold months and one of the coldest 7 days in Feb/March 18. Also though you say the cold is nothing unusual, we have just had the 2nd coldest Jan 31st since 1972, with only 87 beating it out by 0.1c...so whilst not severe, that maybe underselling it a little. Anyway models are grim but not without potential. There are certainly solutions to evolve into cold again but it may require a week or two of more spring like conditions. Also an outside chance of record mildness if it all lines up.

It maybe worth remembering what happened with the last low and how it trended further and further south and weaker. Would it be that surprising for that to happen again? There isn't really the cold air aloft to have a repeat so it would likely be cool and wet for most except on the very highest ground. It's also cool yo see the ensembles. A few have probably record breaking mild. But at this stage doesn't mean anything other than for giggles.

It is worth mentioning that whilst looking bleak right now, these types of setups can quickly switch into northern blocking under the right circumstances. At the moment I'm getting a distinctive Feb 1998 feeling from the models. I suspect it won't look anywhere near that bad when we get there but pretty obvious we are going to go through a spell of St least above average temperatures, possibly well above. TEITS - there is blocking...just very much in the wrong place on the models this morning!

I imagine the view from newlands would be pretty amazing this morning, though getting there would be fun on icy roads!

I wouldn't be adverse to a decent mild spell since it looks like the cold synoptically are gone, may as well go mild as we can to reduce gas bills, etc. Anyway before that a cold ole day to come, then tonight under snow cover probably going down to -8/9c, going yo be really bitter! Down here it's -0.7c so the cover should be frozen which will help preserve it somewhat during the day once it warms up. Just about to have a walk in it, something you can't beat!

Its certainly all very interesting! I seem to keep on remembering though when the vortex shattered it split into many splinter pieces, there were like 3-4 different lobes, and indeed even now if you look there are various lobes splinting off, like the snow system we've literally just had. IMO these little lobes right at the start of the event prevented any northern blocking and actually kept the pattern quite flat (the squeeze job in the failed easterly is a perfect demonstration of that in effect, the space just wasn't there for any subtropical ridging to punch through the ring of PV lobes that were littered everywhere.) I think had we had a cleaner split from a less severe SSW then there would have been that breathing room for northern blocking to blossom and then it would in itself start to modify the distribution of the key features, I'm thinking like the 09-10 type winter. However because it didn't take hold early enough one PV lobe latched it itself into place over Ne Canada, a favoured spot, and has basically spun away unfetered. And with no ability to have another SSW and a messed up tropical signal, we've had no real way of dislodging it from its spot. Now we are finally getting a response from the troposphere but the pattern is very locked in place now. Probably won' shift much until any final warming IMO, unless the Siberian high grows so strong it starts to disrupt the pattern again, but that feels a long shot right now. I do also agree regarding the QBO. Once again I remember some statistics that in this mode of the QBO, only 2 out of 13 SSWs have had any major impact on the troposphere. That's very poor average, and one of those was 2013 which took the best part of two months! So this maybe the 3rd out of 14 to have some major impact, even if it isn't benefitting us. Also, I do vaguely remember reading what someone on Americanwx said that a lot of the indicies at the moment seem to be loaded to extreme ends one way or the other, they aren't often middling in the last few years. I suppose US PV outbreak and our summer are examples of the results when an extreme pattern can set-up.

I didn't see any settling snow from March 2013 through to December 2017. Its really annoying when it happens, but sometimes that's the way the weather works. Makes it all the better when you do finally see something. Also it wasn't until March 2018 that I had more than an inch. That's 5 years without that sort of snowfall. But it made March 2018 all the better as it was something to look forward to. But I DO get that you want snow, we all do. And it is also ok to be annoyed, as I think I showed quite nicely last night. However things turned around. One day, you'll be in the jackpot zone. Then your snow will be the envy of everyone. Just need to think positive with it.

No idea, sometimes these things do feel like they work in cycles. We've now had four fairly major battleground snow events in the last two winter. One in December 2017 which hit the W.Midlands, then storm Emma, then the next one from the 'mini beast' and now this set-up. We may now go 5-10 years without another, who knows?! Equally, the area I lived in got hammered five times from 2009-Dec 2010. From the easterly 09, from Dec 2009, from January 2010 LP, from December 1/2nd of 2010 and then again in mid December. Since then no where near as much, but SW Midlands into Wales have done very well in that time period.

whilst annoying I'm sure, you never were likely to get much snow in this set-up this time around. I know I was quite angsty last night (and I apologise for that, it somewhat soured the thread looking back at it), but I think I had a good reason to be annoyed being literally in the middle of a dry slot for 5hrs whilst everything rotated around. I also totally understand Steveinsussex being annoyed as well, due to the same thing. However I don't think you've quite as much right to be peeved. With that being said, your time will come....it always does in the end. I remember a guy from somewhere in the middle of the country. He barely had anything for 5 years or so. Anyway in January 2010 a potent LP came down and his location would have copped a foot of snow in that. So sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. It sucks when you lose, I lost last night in a way I've never experienced before. Paul S lost in Feb 2009. But you move on and try to learn WHY you lost and that hopefully makes it easier IF anything goes wrong again.

I think the other issue is there really has been a dearth of decent northerlies in the last 3-4 years, something which usually nails Norwich. I mean I'm struggling to recall one decent northerly (indeed, even a toppler northerly like we used to get a lot from 2003-2008). Several decent easterlies, now a good NW and several battleground set-ups. But very few northerlies. So he may be right to question this location because he probably hasn't seen a half decent northerly. I remember living in Ockendon in Thurrock and getting some great looking convection from the cells that came through from Norfolk. By the time they got here they were pretty whispy, but I remember looking at them and thinking they looked great, and in the clear winters day a northerly brings inland, you can see for many miles upwind.

Upto 0.5c, looks like I've finally got a little of that sligjhtly milder entrained ait around the circulation, explains the sleety appearance of the snow as well. Not really all that bothered though, I'm plenty satisfied with this, even if it does suffer from melt for the next 3-6hrs.

Ha I'm trying to watch it on TV but not having much luck. At leas the commentary is coming through well now and occasionally I get a glimpse of whats going on!

Yes they were great days. Feb 2005 in particular was rubbish apart from 2 pretty strong streamers that gave a brief 2-3 inches (and that Thundersnow as well!) We need another one like that or Feb 09 (well one that Paul can join in) because although I'm now no where near the Esturary, a good ENE will just about reach down here, but more impact to Guildford region, which is only a short trip up the A3 anyway. The beast was ok, but I felt like the streamers weren't as impressive as it could have been, especially given the depth of cold.

Ah Chafford Hundred I assume? Used to walk from home to Lakeside all the time, worked up there as well for quite some time. Wind chill out there at -4.6c, brrr! I mean its no -50 like USA...but that's cold enough for me!

Slightly sleety here at the moment, due to the dew points rising a touch along with the temps (now 0.4c). Sleet on top of snow then freeze is probably the most dangerous combo of all because it cause the snow to become an ice rink, and people never expect it either. When I go out in it tomorrow I'm going to have to be very careful. Also Saturday night is looing VERY cold, high resolution models have lots of pockets of -7/8c around!