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kold weather

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Everything posted by kold weather

  1. kold weather
    Regardless of how extreme things get, even 35c is fairly exceptional and will make this noteworthy. However this plume is probably a little hotter than the 2003 one (though not as crazy as the June plume!) so that should give a rough guide of what is at least possible. Going to be a hot week for the SE, and a hot Mon/Tues for many!
  2. kold weather
    You can literally see the output yourself, it's on the model thread, or there are several other model sites that show it...but both the UKV and ECM are in that 36-38c range for sure on their latest output. PS, worth noting it does have 35c for London, but this setup favours N Kent for highest temps, not London, hence why we see 36-38c on the models to the east of London.
  3. kold weather
    in all fairness the latest 12z Ukv and ECM both show 37-38c which would both break records. Icon, GEM and GFS also broadly in the same ballpark as well. As said in model thread, Skew T from the SE in the last plume we're suggestive of 40-42c at surface had we not had huge bad luck of pulling in a north sea surface flows. Whilst the setup is marginally less extreme this time, the only limiting factor maybe any Shower activity lingering into the late morning of Weds. of course it is only a small adjustment away from not happening still, but Tuesday heat is locked now.
  4. kold weather
    Worth noting that during the last hot shot the air profile above the surface easterly would be suggestive of 41-42c at it's peak if the airflow came from a better direction at the surface rather than the north sea. Even with just 12hrs we managed a solid 34c. So as mad as it sounds, if we do get a good alignment, that's not impossible!
  5. kold weather
    Stronger agreement on Weds and Thurs now from models, most going into the 34-36 range. Plenty of time yet for changes but looking like staying hot in the SE till Friday.
  6. kold weather
    Yeah, ICON has a small area of 34-36c in Kent/London region, so in that set-up its certainly possible. Of course this is still a very fluid set-up, and we could still easily see a shift for the end part of the week. What does look likely is a top temperature on Tuesday that may well challenge the daily record.
  7. kold weather
    Both the 12z ECM and the 18z GFS are brutal. The models had been getting more bening for the back part of July but models today have moved back to a dipole and a much warmer looking Arctic setup. If these came close then the record will again be at risk after briefly looking like it maybe safe.
  8. kold weather
    Looks like high 17c is probably around the ballpark this lands unless things really do get exceptional in terms of the heat. Worth watching the date records on the 23rd and 24th (Tues/Weds) which are both very breakable. Tuesday requires 33.5 (certainly locally possible) and Wednesday only needs 32.7, which providing the heat doesn't end up over the north sea, should be beaten somewhere in the eastern part of the SE (E.G Gravesend, etc)
  9. kold weather
    Tuesday still looking hot across a vast part of the country, widespread 30c seems likely, though I suspect we will be somewhat limited as the import of the hottest air isn't until quite late. Beyond that and models restrict the more intense heat to the SE, but still time for both West and East adjustment s.
  10. kold weather
    Regardless of how long it lasts, Tuesday looks increasingly hot. Quite a few models going decently into the 30s. If the heat can hold for a little longer probably mid 30s quite probable...however at this stage too early to tell beyond Tuesday.
  11. kold weather
    Lots of 31-32c now across London and Surrey on personal weather stations, a few believable 33c showing up as well now. Personally we have reached 31c here, about 2c higher than expected, probably will reach 90f.
  12. kold weather
    Given background conditions aloft, no reason why temps won't keep going up, it's been Abit of an unusual setup over the past 24hrs so the usual timings of when the temps platuea may be shifted 1-2hrs later. Anyway plenty of realistic 30-32c on the pws throughout the SE now
  13. kold weather
    Temperatures in SW London still rising, most pws are now in the 29-31c range. North of the Thames just a touch cooler by 1-2c or so.
  14. kold weather
    Unofficial weather stations showing multiple 29-30c recordings ATM in SW London. Most are between 26-28c in the SE of the UK
  15. kold weather
    Also warming here, upto 24c. Hot air aloft (still not far from record breaking) and finally surface temperatures responding. June record may well go today.
  16. kold weather
    Anyone have an idea for largest summer time durinal shift? I've gotta think we may see quite an impressive change tomorrow.
  17. kold weather
    I'm near certain we will be well north of 30c, once we gain a surface flows from France those amazingly high upper profiles will come into play.
  18. kold weather
    Yeah I think a 34-35c is looking more than possible given the figures we have aloft, literally the only thing holding temps back is the relatively cool start compared to what you'd expect with 20-23c 850hpa temps aloft. Other than that I suspect temperatures will really shoot up.
  19. kold weather
    As I said a few days ago the conditions for the next few days is brutal. Sea ice extent is really going to fall away during the next 20 days, especially whilst insulation from the sun is still high. IMO as I said, we are going top 3, it's just how bad it goes.
  20. kold weather
    Have to say the profile of air coming up has more than a whiff of central US early summer about it. Models suggesting some huge cape present. Normally I'd be very sceptical as dews as high as forecast usually is a fallacy...but the profile looks so extreme that we may get air that genuinely resembles the tropics next week. Of course it will be much more moderated compared to down there thanks to the far cooler says, but impressive either way!
  21. kold weather
    Got to say the next ten days do look pretty brutal, near constant WAA into the central Arctic, any cold spots are in useless locations. Increasingly confident this is going to be a top 3 year for melt...it's just how high does it go in the list.
  22. kold weather
    I think to my eye FV3 looks a touch off and the 850hpa profile is very odd with little pockets of extreme heat coming up but broadly not quite as mad as previous. I doubt it has too much support for that exact evolution...though I'd still suspect a 35-36c from it which lest is forget is pretty impressive for the UK. what we lose in extreme heat from that 12z, we gain in convective potential, so not a bad trade off to be fair!
  23. kold weather
    I tend to agree with regards to record breaking temps, a slight easterly drag is going to effect the surface temps somewhat rather than a pure SE which would be ideal. also SSTs/ground temps are more modest as mentioned. Still, a similar blast happened in 2015 and that shot a rapid fire 36c at a nearly identical time of year. I don't think we will get a record, despite how impressive the uppers are, but I do think we'll get a solid top 5 hottest temp ever...and the real story with the heat will be just how oppressive it will feel...probably will feel closer to 40c.
  24. kold weather
    exceptional 850hpa profile coming up. Surface temps aren't as extreme as you would think but they are likely 2-3c undercooked this far out. Also those few points are rough...going to feel exceptionally hot, regardless of how high temps actually go.
  25. kold weather
    have to say ive had very similar 2012 vibes. There was a very wet spell that month at a similar time. Also interesting to see a broadly similar evolution to 06-07 play out over the past 12 months.
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