kold weather

Doesn't surprise me, Heathrow was at 28.8c at 8.50am so that fits quite nicely with that observation. Going to have several stations above 30c by 10am. July 2015 was exceptional for getting to around 34 in Heathrow by 11am, but then quite a decent area of mid level cloud came over and dropped temperatures to 31C. I think even if there are showers that come over,, I don't think its going to have such a dramtic impact.

Should basically go from IoW just a hint east of north (say 10 degrees). Should JUST stay west of London but obviously there may be cloud overhang from the anvil which may well impact sites such as Heathrow, etc. Still a few hours away yet but not the best of timings it has to be said.

Heathrow now upto 28.8C. Will need to watch that solo cell over far N.France, thats may track right through the prime heating zone and may just temporarily put the brakes on any heating between say 12-2pm IF it survives, which on a day of fine margins may make a difference. Of course no certainties that it will not just collapse as it hits the channel.

Given temperatures are already as high as they forecast at 10am, they are probably on the low side. Also max it shows is 37c in a few locations in London. The only uncertainty is any mid level storms that are currently over France moving over and causing cloud cover. However for now those cells are still very discrete which may mean only a brief drop in temperatures before it clears away... However most models has the showers dying out over the channel as it moves towards the more capped air to its east.

Upto 26c locally now, temperatures still shooting up at quite a rapid rate. As others have said cloud cover will need to be watched, especially as there are some small cells over France which will likely spread cloud cover to some local areas in the early afternoon. However they are still fairly discrete at this stage.

Probably only for the next 3hrs I'd guess, going to be an interesting afternoon for sure!

Just looking back at July 1st 2015 and it was crazy fast heating, we were well into the 30s by 10am! Heathrow upto 26c by 8am, so should be on target for 30c by 10am.

Quite a big difference in how it feels even between 6.30 and now, slight coolness in the air first thing but that's already long gone. Locally upto 20c now, to be hottest day of year we need a 33c, which should be do able providing we avoid the mid level cloud.

Impressive start there, quite a few stations of to a quick start as well. I think 39 looks solid, 40 is going to be 50-50.

Yeah the highest heat and most impressive thickness starts to really stream in between 3-6am and so temps should hold from that point. Going to rapidly get to 30c tomorrow, gonna get the dog out nice and early.

If anything it's running a little cooler than the previous GFS, clearly a model bias it has which I hope will be ironed out over the years. If you know the bias, it's easy enough to account for it.

Worth noting the temperatures are 2-3c higher still than the GFS/ECM which peak at 36c. Meanwhile ARPEGE has temperatures for 21z around 24-25c, which is about right in many places but maybe a smidge high, and it goes to 39-40C. All this suggests 39c is quite possibly in the right ballpark

Alot of the global models were a good 2-3c too low today (which to be fair, was also the case on Monday) and so wouldn't be shocked to see the GFs/ECM 35-36 actually end up as a 38-39.

I suspect with such a wide area expected to get to 36-37c, you'd have to think at least one station will sneak past the record. Peak temperature today was 34.3C, which was pretty close to the extreme end of what was expected by the warmest models (and 2-4C higher than ECm/GFS were expecting. Apply the same difference to the forecast tomorrow, and you get that 39C that has been expected). My gut is we do get past it, I'm not convinced however we are going to get to that magical 40 however... Worth noting some of the more agressive models with the breakdown are proving way too keen to break storms out over France this evening as well.

Based from 12z ECM yesterday it was about 2-3c too cool over most of the region which will be hottest. It's max was 31c in a small zone, max today was around the 34c mark.

34.3c, close to the higher end of the model forecasts today, both ICON and GFS were way too low. Adds credence to a record tomorrow as well

Fair bit cooler here than yesterday at 28c thanks to some cloud cover at me d levels, but still feels plenty hot. I suspect a 34-35c locally tomorrow which is going to be interesting for sure!

I have never seen such a widespread forecast of 38c, large parts of the SE beating the August 2003 record! Somewhere will likely have recorded a 34c, far higher than more conservative models.

Again max temps well beyond the GFS expectation, broadly between 2-4c warmer than expected at this point by the GFS.

Already warming up nicely in the London zone and East Anglia, quite a few 28-29c recordings. However I doubt we will go as high as the met office think today, looks like a 31-33c max type day. Tomorrow still looking to extreme

Bar the GFS which stubbornly stays cooler around 35-36 (and IMO was poor yesterday and too cool) most models now homing in around 38c, give or take 1c. Such an outcome wouldake it highly likely at least one station would break the record.

Certainly one of the better lightning displays I've seen, comparable to storms I've seen in the tropics as well.

Remember that is only a grid point, hottest temps will n that chart are a little east of that grid point. Plus widespread 35 would suggest maxes at usual hotspots a good 2c higher regardless. Edit - yes deepest red strip shows between 36-38c, likely you'd get a local temp 1-2c higher in the classic hotspots as well.

Amazing light display, must be at least 10 seperate cells going off. Increasing rumbles as a set close in just to my SW.

Quite the light show here to the south, great stuff!