kold weather

Worryingly there is a mathematical model I have seen for Italy which has done a great job predicting the last few days outbreak numbers (it predicted 720 for today for example). Tomorrow it predicts 960 new cases...nearly a 1000 in a day for Italy.

This time next week they are going to be well north of 1000, as will likely Germany, we are probably 3-4 days behind them so suspect we will also breach 1000 some point in the next 10 days. As for Italy, that really is starting to look grim. Europe in general seems to be being hit quite hard by new cases right now. PS - world wide cases will likely break 100,000 tomorrow.

5 people dead in the state of Washington out of just 14 cases officially...hard to believe it isn't alot more numerous out there then they are claiming. Seems like the American govt is again behind the curve with this one and to have tested as few people as they have is an utter joke, one that is going to bite them hard I fear.

I've read the latest report from WHO, the risk of death without any previous health risks based from 55,000 cases from China is about 1.4%, it obviously rises with other health factors at play. For those above the age of 80, the risk is now estimated to be 21%, which is obviously a fairly decent percentage. Current mortality rate is estimated in China at 3.8%, though those diagnosed later have a better chance, a death rate of 0.7% as noted (though obviously those are active cases that may yet still die in the end). Also this is in China, a country that basically shut itself down in every way and built special hospitals in days for this. I'm not sure many countries will do as good a job at containing it unless they do likewise, and that will clearly have huge knockon for the economy and social aspects of our lives.

WHO's latest report from China seems to suggest this is not the case. They said there are few cases of asymptomatic versions, most do become ill a few days after a positive test even if they were showing no signs of symptoms before and they have no reason to suspect the figure is much higher than the one being suggested by the officials at the moment. Also, worth noting that the current fatlity rate for the CLOSED cases is 7% have died, 93% recovered, so the current outcome from China from WHOs report from there may even be an underestimate still based on that information.

Not just that but the latest who assessment from China actually puts the fatality rate at just a little under 4% from China cases. Odds are lesser developed countries may see higher than that. So this was a per the latest estimate on the order of 30-40 times more deadly than the flu. Comparing them is actually spreading bad misinformation, they may be from similar backgrounds, but this one is at the moment clearly more dangerous, by order of magnitude so infact. Pit - it appears it's the other way round, it's more deadly than first estimated, at least on those cases thus reported.

I think something I am a little concerned about is how we are starting to see an increasing number of cases across the world which have no clear link to the hotspots. Would suggest we are seeing people with it moving around with it and probably not even knowing it. Rumours of course, but Iran looks in quite a bad way as well...

Because the 202mm is the average for the whole of the UK, whilst the long term average we are looking at is only including Wales and England, hence the lower totals (as Scotland obviously tends to be wetter which helps to pull the average up).

I think people have been talking about the mortality rate being something like 1-2%, however what is a little more worrying at the moment is the settled cases showed that of those cases (about 45,000 now) roughly 7% ended in death and the rest recovered. Would suggest that the mortality rate may end up being higher than the 1-2% currently estimated, at least outside of the more economically developed countries/areas. Of course that can be balanced out by the possiblity of people just thinking they have flu/heavy cold and never reporting their disease.

A wet, windy and mild winter for sure, I think whats bothered me most is just how little variation there has been ,its basically been the same pattern rinse and repeat throughout and the CET has barely moved away from that 2c above average mark throughout. Might just sneak into the top 10 list of wettest ever winters as well. Given that, is this one of the wettest ever Autumn-winter periods we've ever had??

Decent rise there, looks like we will go above 170, could end up being close to a top 30 finish after all, despite being a shorter month than a normal calander month by 1-2 days. Impressive!

Ok, shouldn't make it to top 30 then which does rather show just exceptionally wet some of the other months were. Top 50 however does seem likely given we are likely to sail past 160mm (if I were to guess 165-170 is the range, probably at the lower end)

24hr totals from 06z on the 28th to 06z today are pretty extensively above 10mm, only really the most eastern counties of the country are below that, and I'd guess the 30hr total from 06z yesterday to 12z today would likely have most of those running above 10mm as well. I suppose what I'm trying to say is it is IMO 100% certain the record is gone (partly thanks to the extra day, had it ended yesterday it may have been close) and now it is only a matter of how far do we extend the record and how far up the all time wettest months list we climb. Should end up over 160mms. Does anyone have a list of wettest ever months, as I do wonder where this run ranks in that pantheon. I'm guessing with a push we may end up close to top 30?

Given we are at 146mm upto 26th so that is not including yesterday rain nor any of todays, the record is almost certain to fall now, indeed we may be over the record at this point already, and tomorrows rain will just give us daylight from 2nd place. Impressive to see such a wet February, we desperately need a dry month or two.

Could be a somewhat close run thing, the frontal system tomorrow morning (which obviously won't add huge totals due to heaviest stuff limited to the south, but it all adds up) and then another system on Friday and again on Saturday. Add a small amount for the last 2 days thanks to the showers and we aren't going to be far away from the record. Top 3 is a certainty, top 2 highly likely as well IMO. Record is up for grabs...

For sure the rain is going to be the biggest issue I feel, I drove through the amber zone for Sunday in the South downs early yesterday and the rain from overnight Wednesday caused a lot of flooding on the roads. I've no doubt that whilst today isn't going to be that wet, the ground is now pretty much maxed out on what it can take and it probably won't take a huge fall of rain to cause pretty widespread flooding issues down here. Worth noting there is an outside shot at a record low pressure in the north Atlantic outside of the tropics from this storm. also not common to have a sub 930mbs secondary low!!

So far one fence panel down and one (a new one, though cheap I have to say!) is bowing in a way that would suggest it could go if we get a few more real big blows.

Left it a little late, I'm sure plenty of West Ham fans would already be well on there way by this point given the distances they need to travel. Strong gusts here from the first line of rain that has just moved through, looks like a 2nd squall line forming ahead of the 1st, not as well defined but it probably will help to drag those stronger winds down further.

Close to 60mph gust here, Odiham up at 58mph as well. Well one fence panels down, several more to go!

85mph already at Capel Curig, probably going to see that figure topped as the night goes on into the morning. Just the first hints here as well, no way is my back fence panels surviving tomorrow, sad times!

Still some decent uncertainty looking through the ECM ensembles, most are broadly in agreement with the MetO warning, but there are some runs that are going a little lower, and a few runs going much higher (one or two chuck 85mph over large swathes of the Midlands/South, including one with 100mph near Brighton!) so whilst this looks like a strong windstorm, still an outside risk of something more exceptional.

I was thinking that on some decent convection the 925mbs winds often give a good indication of the gusts at the surface, in the most intense convection you can even go to 850hpa for a decent indication as well...if that is anything to go by we may see a few places get some very large gusts (850hpa winds knocking on the door of 100mph), will be interesting to see if any weather station catches it.

To my knowledge the warnings are not just an objective look at the worst weather, but to an extent also the impact level and likelihood of the event. I think where the SE especially differs is its not as used to such an event, so this will have a higher impact down there (especially given higher population density as well) whilst Scotland does tend to get these more often, so the threshold for an event that requires amber level of impact may just be a little higher as well, as well as obviously some model uncertainty further north depending on the exact location of the core of the LP. I remember similar things being mentioned during snow events that got a yellow warning in the southeast despite it being relatively minor, the explanation being it will have a bigger impact than a similar even would have if it was elsewhere.

My dog hates the wind howling, so I'm fully expecting him to be jumping onto my face later tonight in a scared state (even 30-40mph will do it as my bed window faces south.

Highest gust at the moment at 69mph at Capel Curig. Still some disagreements from the models with regards to how high we go in terms of gusts, some don't look that severe (generally 50-60mph gusts) but there are also some still going well into the 70s fairly widely. Be interesting to see where it ends up sitting.