kold weather

Trump is indeed technically right, however what he is neglecting to mention is that its this PLUS flu, which is something most countries health services are not based upon and will make many struggle if things were to continue to ramp up. Flu doesn't just stop because Corona is out there. Also, with the best of respect, given how strict the USA has been with testing upto VERY recently, clearly there is many times more than 546 offical cases out there, but you just weren't tested unless you hit very strict criteria. Not hard to have only 546 cases when you've only tested a couple of thousand at most!!

Good ole Trumtpy Dumpty won't be happy with this news at all! Anyway at least there is a positive that the virus hasn't really taken off here yet, probably justifies the staying in containment phase. Once we start seeing jumps in the 000s then I think it will be time to shift focus. Got to think that is days away now, especially with the large growth of cases in Europe over the last 5-7 days.

319 cases now in the UK, still not quite taking off like in other European countries, but certainly still going up. I guess COBRA knew these numbers in advance and decided it didn't yet warrant the upswing in measures.

I'm not shocked, they will probably wait till we are in a similar position to what Germany/France/Spain are in now before deciding to ramp things up, probably going to be needed by Friday in case things rapidly shift over 2-3 days like they have done in Spain. Spain up 362 so far today, could well be up 500 by the end of the day at this rate!

Kinda a pointless lock down then really unless the onward country forceably puts them into a quarantine for 2 weeks, I mean it will help Italy but does nothing for the rest of us!

Thats a really good point, because whilst not an 'event' per say, no denying its a gathering that gets literally many thousands of visitors a day.

Agreed, but I think anyone would have to admit that is a HUGE disparity between Germany and Italy and the numbers of people who for example are being hospitalised. Surely we aren't saying that Italy's health services is many many times worse than Germany, or that the population of Italy is many times older than Germany? FWIW the median age of Germany is actually a touch older than Italy (45.9 vs 45.4) so that is not the reason either. Its just hard to see any logical reason there can be such a huge difference, other than a variation of the strain of virus? Occam's razor would lead me to there first given such a monumental difference. The other thing it could realistic be is Germany is doing mad amount of testing and shutting every known case down instantly. South Korea has shown great success at doing something like that, but without knowing how many tests Germany has done, not sure if that could be the case or not. But your right, no one really knows!

I agree, I personally think this is probably more like the Hong Kong 68-69 outbreak (0.5 CFR - 1 million deaths) however it really is just a pure guess isn't it, the fact no one really knows is probably fueling some of the crazy panic buying we are seeing. Could end up fading away as soon as we reach May, or it may continue to blow up across the world, who knows!

Worth remembering that the Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 2%...whilst I understand the argument about under-reporting, we are currently globally in terms of cases recovered above that mark, so whilst clearly extreme, as a worst case, its not as totally outlandish as it sounds.

I also agree with this, however the big warning signs is that we've now got three countries that have had to deal with a very rapid and explosive uptick in severe cases, plus SK (who have done very well it seems) so we've got plenty of evidence that this can ramp up quickly, nearly exponentially if left alone. Italy was 132 cases just 10 days ago, now sits at nearly 7,500, and thats with already some measures going into place. The more countries that go into the 0000s, the less likely it becomes that we don't equally join them given how much of a global player we are in terms of economic activity. My gut, is give it a week and we will also be where France and Germany are now and probably begin to implement harsher social deterrents to avoid a Italy/Iran/Wuhan situation from occuring

I remember having a really rotten flu back in late Spring 2009, not pleasant at all. Looking back now I think it was highly probable I had Swine Flu given it exploded globally throughout the Spring. Quite possible it has been circulating for a while and just wasn't noticed until it went nuclear in Wuhan. Of course, people have a nasty habit of underestimating what the flu is like, especially if you've never had a real nasty dose of the flu, it will take you out of action for a couple of weeks.

Wouldn't be shocked if we follow suit in the next few days here, I think it maybe more towards the end of the week, but since there is a COBRA meeting tomorrow, they may well try and keep ahead of it.

I totally understand that, however on the other hand you could easily infect other elderly people at such an event as a funeral and inadvertently lead to deaths yourself if you are suspect. Not an easy call to make of course and something that would probably need to be decided by the person dealing with the situation. I don't think we are yet at the point where that needs to be discussed, at least in this country. Also, yeah the Italy version of this disease does seem to be more intense, as does the Iran strain. They both broke out at very similar times as well, so wonder if they are both connected somehow?

Based on the progress in both France/Germany and Italy, I'd say we probably only have 7-10 days until we probably need to bring in some pretty draconian measures as well. We may have a slightly slower rate of infection purely due to being an island, but I don't think it will buy us that much time. Uk likely to be at a 1000 cases IMO by Friday/Saturday. Cheltenham is a tricky one, I'd probably operate a harsh policy that if you look ill/have a temperature, your not coming in. It may not totally reduce the risk but should help somewhat. Then I think once we are into the 0000s of cases, then bring in bans, IMO that happens at the end of this week.

German health minister is saying they should ban events with over 1000 people. I have to think the UK would be wise in following suit given trends seen throughout Europe recently.

Its either that or there is two strains out there, something that no one really seems to agree about.

Italy total numbers now upto 7375, another record rise for the country (just shy of 1500 new cases). Remember, 10 days ago Italy had 132 cases...less than we have now...

For sure, and we know that Italy has got an older demographic, however that is quite a drastic difference from the mean cases-hospitalization rates. I think if I was the UK govt I'd be seriously considering banning large scale social gatherings now, how extreme that ban should go is something to debate but it seems given the trends seen first in Italy, and now to a lesser extent in Germany and France, it would be a good idea to try and get ahead of the curve before it starts to run away from us like it has in Italy. Total deaths in Italy now upto 366, starting to race up like it did in Wuhan.

Exactly, that isn't just fluke, surely not?! That is a huge number of people who are very ill. I am a little worried Italy has got some mutated strain of this (as may Iran, as many doesn't believe in their numbers).

Its odd because SK has similar numbers yet clearly hasn't been hit as hard. It surely can't just be because Italy has an older population, not that large of a difference. I mean the numbers are far above what other countries have and only China and Iran compare.

If they keep going to work as if nothing is happening, then Wuhan is the end result of that and everything will grind to a stop for a few weeks whether they like it or not...

Yes, and staff there should really be thought about as well, because there will be some of them who WILL be at higher risk for sure.

I think thats what I would probably do, try and keep schools open a few more weeks (I don't think we are there yet) and try to link it as close to the easter holidays. Or maybe move the easter holidays earlier a week or two?

Exactly, from 132 cases to 6000 took 9 days for Italy. I suspect if things continue to ramp then an official move to delay must happen next week and sporting events to be played behind closed doors, etc.

So its taken them 9 days to jump up that many cases, looks like France and Germany are about 5 days behind Italy...can only imagine we are probably 3-4 days behind France/Germany.