kold weather

To be fair, Denmark has had nearly 200 cases new today, I suspect we will be close behind once we start getting those sorts of cases every day. not quite there yet.

I do also get the argument that this is a marathon not a sprint, but people need to get a bit of that old British fortitude, the one that got us through the Blitz over a several month period. Not that this is the same thing obviously, but the mindset needs to be one of unity and working for a greater good. Hopefully they do move to delay tomorrow and introduce at least some things to start that process. I'm not expecting huge changes this week, but something to at least help things and to get the public services onto a stronger footing.

For sure, I get the feeling based on what is happening throughout Europe though that this is escalating quite a bit quicker than expected. We haven't seen that uptick in numbers yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if we start that 3 week period sooner rather than later. I know they were trying to get this through to the summer, but I'd be stunned if we aren't in full lockdown mode by April 15. I pray I;m wrong.

I think they have done ok, however I think I'd have put a ban in place for large indoor events at least by this point, outdoor events are a little different, however certainly a debate to be had there. I'd have probably tried to increase the testing rates at the start of this week rather than now, however that may not have been something they could physically do. I agree with their plan, I just think they are probably 3-5 days too slow in getting things going, and as Spain has shown, 3-5 days is the difference between 200 and 2000.

Probably way too late for that, they need to get their own house in order before it runs away from them, they can probably still just about get on top of it, but their clusters are getting bigger and more widespread thanks to the poor action of their government.

I think they have to move before the weekend, Madrid region pretty much got out of control over just 72hrs and only really tough measures seen in Wuhan will drag that back now. Hopefully we will start to see a sizeable reduction in Italian new cases next week which will indicate their lockdown is working, my guess is it will have some impact, but not enough, especially as they are already at breaking point in terms of the health service.

We are definitely not China though, unfortunately for us, Italy is a far better comparison in terms of the actions that are being taken. It can be jumped upon, but requires either huge social shutdown, or an utterly monstrous testing program on literally anyone at risk. (100,000s tests) We have done neither of those, and therefore will follow the rest f Europe down the toilet in due course.

By which time we will be in the 1000s of cases for sure (even just assuming a linear increase with similar amounts of cases to now each day!) Take a look at Spain, this time last week, 228 cases, so they've increased roughly 10x!!! I've broadly supported the government upto now, but its starting to smack a little of being too casual and lax about it now. They will just like Italy and Spain, shut the barn door whilst the horse is half a mile up the field!

I'd be surprised if we were to go anywhere near that figure, but given the Spanish Flu ended up with 200,000 dead with a smaller population, its far from impossible we end up in a similar position. 1000 deaths is clearly lowballing it if things do kick off, I mean Italy are pretty much there already!

This is so painful from our government herei n the UK, how many different cases do we have to see where things progress to a certain point and then action is taken. Why don't we try and get ahead of the curve. The economy is stuffed regardless of what we do now based on a fair chunk of the G20 countries now being under the coronavirus fully. I'm struggling to understand why we aren't at least banning indoor events over a certain size, at least do SOMETHING!!

New York state now upto 213 cases, up from 173, so up 40 for just that one state. Expect US cases to lift up quite alot, though still suggestions there isn't as much testing going on as was suggested by the VP the other day.

Today now has 5851 cases so far, so officially the largest day of cases outside of China, and probably will top 6000 with France and more from the USA. Feels like a big day this one. WHO finally saying its a pandemic and various governments finally starting to take some more proactive measures.

That is high, the offical total according to WHO's estimate was 280,000 roughly, but its hard to tell I admit.

I heard reports earlier today that Lombardy increase in cases alone maybe in the region of 1500, so Italy maybe about to report a 2000+ day...but obviously these are unconfirmed. Either way a large increase in deaths for sure.

Oh dear another analog that has shot up like Netherlands. If we can make it to the weekend without a large jump it will be a miracle. I think phase 2 (delay) is coming very soon in this country, might as well get ahead of the inevitable at this point. Despite a decent budget, FTSE still down 1.4% at the moment, Dow Jones still destroying all of its gains on the Trump years, currently down 5%.

Exactly, this is literally in the first part of this, the next 4-8 weeks will be very rough indeed and we will probably see quite a large amount of deaths as health services will start to struggle.

We've been asked something similar and to be ready to collapse classes if the widespread sickness in staffing starts before then. I think there is a growing acknowledgement that they aren't going to be able to see it out until Easter and it may require an early breakup. How they replace those days is the question and how long it lasts is vital, especially for those sitting exams this year.

WHO finally admit what has been clearly the case for at least the last week, that this is now officially a pandemic. I think given the rapid escalation in many different countries across the world, that is pretty clear is the case.

Reports are by the way Lombardy may see quite shocking report soon...hearing on twitter from very reliable page that Lombardy death total now 617 on its own...up from 468

Spain total now upto 2182, an increase of nearly 500 again today, roughly in line with the increases seen in Italy around this time last week. Paul - that is very worrying, it sounds like they are totally at breaking point, and I don't think they will be the only ones. I think this maybe one of those world crisis' that makes us re-evaluate how we prepare for such events and fund health services, in much the same way WW2 shifted the global ideas in many areas. Its got all the hallmarks of one of the most severe pandemics seen, at least in terms of absolute numbers. I was thinking until recently the Hong Kong infection was a good reference point with its 1 million deaths..but I'm starting to fear that may run too low, the only upshot is its March and not December right now and the weather will turn in our favour soon, at least in the northern hemisphere.

I think they are probably scared over what yesterday did to their numbers, they don't want to have to fact it, but history will look upon them unkindly if they don't accept the biggest challenge of all. What a time to have such an useless government... Sweden up 122 cases and Switzerland up 155 cases...we really have been damn lucky with our increase of just 80 or so since yesterday! I feel like we are seeing yet another step up from where we are globally today, so many places recording increases in the high 00s and 000s today.

Qatar just stated they have 238 new cases! Thats quite the jump from 24 total they recorded just yesterday!! Scotland's first community transmission shows it is only a matter of tim before it takes off, and I suspect there probably already are a decent number of cases in the pipelines in London. Someone I've been speaking too sounds like they have the exact symptoms of Corona, but hasn't been tested yet.

Yes up from the 1500 limit we currently have, 10,000 should be a pretty good base to have a good idea of whether or not things are starting to ramp up, I fear its kind of inevitable that we will see a large increase either tomorrow, or Friday.

A rise but nothing *too* drastic still, pretty much in line with the curve we have been on in the last 3-5 days or so with a slow gentle rise. Still that is the highest daily rise yet. When I saw the Netherlands have a 120+ rise I did think we may see something similar, so a rise of about 75 is not a disaster. Given how much it has spread throughout Europe, As Paul said those 100s rises are not far away now though.

Spain now upto 2124 cases and obviously still increasing, daily rise likely to be above 600 at this rate. Looking very similar to Italy now... If we go up by less than a 100 cases we have done really well, or been very lucky. Just a matter of time before we get one of those big jumps...