kold weather

Very soon everything like that will be shut down as it is in Italy, there won't be a zoo, cinema, etc to go to. Besides the children don't need protecting, they really aren't at much risk anyway.

Oh dear, thats our closest analogue at the moment and if they have just had a jump, we can't be far behind. If we have another day of middling increases we really are going to be riding our luck well!

Yes that is good to see, I'm glad that they are going to do something about business rates. I think the markets will react well to this budget so far.

I'm amazed, I've just looked at Milan's airport and there are STILL flights coming over from there, indeed there is one due to land in Manchester pretty soon! Whilst alot have now been cancelled, still flights to Moscow, Berlin, Manchester, Kiev, Lyon, Dublin, Cairo, Lisbon and the list goes on (all of those in the next 4hrs!). Still not enough of a lockdown to stop this spread IMO. As for schools, we will see, I do understand the logic that kids aren't vectors, however IF you want to stop people going out and to reduce the risk of spread, having them be forced to stay home may well be the ticket.

I'll be surprised if we can make it through to Easter holidays without schools closing, but they are for sure going to kick it down the road long enough that the peak coincides with the easter holidays. I think at the moment they will probably extend the easter holiday 1 week either side of the holiday, and maybe reduce the summer holiday to compensate? We will see, that will cause its own logistical problems.

Problem is just a few days ago Spain was pretty much in the same boat as we are currently. That shows how rapidly this can blow up and its exactly why the UK govt does need to start bringing in some measures this week otherwise it may run away from them.

Any figure that is plucked out is going to be arbitrary, that figure of 1000 will stop alot of the larger events from happening. As for Cheltenham, IF that was the measure, it'd have to be postponed, simple as that. However we will see, I may well be wrong!

That sounds like they are ready to commit to at least some features to help with the social distancing. Who knows what they will bring in though! My best guess is social gatherings over 1000 to be banned for a start. IMO schools need to stay open a little longer yet.

Spanish figures upto 12pm: Total Confirmed Cases: 2,067 Deaths: 47 So another large jump in Spain! I really do quesiton the wisdom of this Champions league match going ahead, their jumps are pretty much exponential at the moment!!

Another bad day in Iran then, the death total starting to really add up in Iran as well sadly. Already close to 2,000 cases today (1870) and that is before the bigger European countries reports come in during the day or the next round of US reports come through later. Yesterday was the worst day globally in this 2nd wave of infections outside of China.

Bahrain seeing a large increase relative to where they are, now up 78 cases compared to just 110 yesterday overall cases. Also 2nd death in Lebanon.

I suppose the problem is SB if they are trying to delay it, there may not be much left to save for some bushiness, quite a few places are already only just getting over a difficult 2019 due to Brexit fears/anxiety and may not have the resources to cope with a 2-3 month period of drastically reduced demand. I admit on its own its not a huge deal and I think other larger measures elsewhere in the economy needs to be put out and the introduction of IR35 for example must be put back at least 6 months IMO (as there is likely to be another Autumn budget when hopefully we will see things calm down) as every little will help in this case. No easy answer, especially since we haven't still properly recovered from the 2007-2008 crash (we used ultra low interest rates to prop everything up globally) that same trick isn't going to have anywhere near the same effect here.

Anything that might help to keep others safe has to be a good thing, even if it is by appointment only. Those people otherwise might struggle to get tested at all. Anyway I'm off work all week now, thanks to a butchered Meniscus cartilage from an injury, at this rate I'll get back to school as Coronavirus hits!

It is interesting to see these little local bubbles, we've kind of got a larger one here in this part of NW Europe as well, with Belgium, Netherlands and the UK all showing a slower rate of growth than the rest of W.Europe and now most of central Europe as well. Good to see the cutting of interest rates, but they need to do something major to help small business and retail, because in particular the latter was struggling even before coronavirus.

Yeah I mean that is a little baffling, Madrid clearly has a decent sized cluster given how quickly rates of infection are being caught in that area now. Certainly a chance someone will come over infected and spread it further in the UK, mind you at this point its porbably circulating quite well on its own. Denmark up another 78 cases.

I think there was worry about a load of cases in Seoul last night, looks like it maybe to do with that.

I mean in fairness they should be able to run government remotely, its been a threat before (for example in Cold War and nuclear fallout scenario) and things have moved along alot technology wise, so I'd imagine in that situation where they do have to quarantine themselves it shouldn't actually make a drastic difference to the government. Might put an end to the parliament meeting though.

Given timings she almost certainly would have been ill on Thursday, so therefore in theory half the government should now go into self quarantine and get themselves tested. COBRA meeting may need to be a virtual meeting tomorrow now!

USA cases will now race up, don't be surprised if by raw numbers they aren't much dissimilar to where Italy is by this time next week (though obviously a bigger country population.) as they catch up to where things really are in reality.

We seem to be behaving more like Netherlands/Belgium, countries in NW Europe. I think its quite believable though with so many countries throgh W/C Europe and Scandinavia now having increasing cases, hard to think us and the former 2 countries mentioned won't race up.

Well she may well become a super spreader in her own rights, got to try and do some serious contact tracing from this point! Better get Boris tested as well!

South Korea maybe an exceptionally case, in that a huge percent of their local cases came from one religious sect that was basically tested in its totality and any cases shut down instantly, and then there were just imported cases which they've also pounced on. In truth, whilst they have had alot of cases, most of it has always been under control due to it being acted upon so rapidly. Not to say they haven't done a great job (both them and China really have been outstanding), but I do think they unfortunately are not the best comparison to what is happening in Europe, which has multiple countries blowing up and importing/exporting cases between themselves and already far too many different groups.

Given their location I'd be very surprised if there total isn't at least in the 000s. Anyway, Germany has ended today up 361 cases, so wihlst a slow start, it has kept pace with France and Spain. Worryingly though several other countries in Europe have seen large increases. Indeed we've had one of the lower end increases in west/central Europe. I do believe it though, since Netherlands is also showing a similar trend to the UK, as is Belgium. Got to think it is only a matter of time, with so many countries starting to esculate up in totals, that will only increase the chance of importing cases and beginning large spread community spread. Indeed just a few hints London is starting to show this maybe starting, but only hints.

I suspect football in this country will end up being shut down before the offical bodies will due to probably some players eventually catching it, especially as some have quite extravagant lifestyles (not all of course, but it'd only take 1 from a team, or coaching staff to shut the whole club down.

It is a little crazy. Just 30 days ago outside of China there were just 382 cases, only a few more than we have in the Uk right now. Quite the explosive development globally considering in 30 days we've increased global cases outside of China by 100x!