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kold weather

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Everything posted by kold weather

  1. kold weather
    Well we are seeing a legitimate steady state high end cat-4 here. As I said earlier probably 135kts landfall, just a hair beneath cat-5. High end cat-4 making landfall in the US are very rare. A storm this strong making landfall anywhere in the Atlantic is rare, one hitting this part of the gulf even more so.
  2. kold weather
    Some amazing videos already coming out. Probably enough data to warrant upping the winds to 135kts post season but not enough to get to cat-5 imo. Laura is now the joint 5th strongest ever landfalling US hurricane, just for some perspective (Behind 1935 labor Day, Camille, Andrew and Michael). I suspect post season it will hold that rank on its own.
  3. kold weather
    Yep, literally at most 100ft above the surface there. I think its almost inevitable we are going to get a 135kts at some point in the next 2-3hrs from one of the two planes that will be soon in it (Noaa already in, AF plane currently enroute.). I'd be surprised if we don't see a cat-5 just before landfall...almost a twin to Michael in that respect, just not quite as deep.
  4. kold weather
    Dropsonde reporting 128kts at surface, so probably does support 130kts and not quite 135kts at the moment. However... Those 140kts are literally just above the surface (at most 30-40m), you've got to think that on one of those passes one of the recon planes is going to clock a legitimate 135kts+ SMFR or a dropsonde that gets above 135kts. Won't be long I'd have thought given some of the velocities aloft on radar and that dropsonde report. Probably odds on we get a cat-5 now.
  5. kold weather
    Also as per normal with these systems that turn north, track now looks just a little to the east of where the official forecast was expecting. These systems nearly always error to the east.
  6. kold weather
    Winds definitely justify 130kts, so expect that to happen very soon from the NHC. SMFR reported a 133kts, so its mighty close. IF we get a legitimate 135kts dropsonde report or if the 2nd recon airplane can get a 134-137kts type wind with SMFR they may well go with 135kts and pull the trigger for a cat-5. Very borderline either way at the moment. Extrap pressure down to 937.4mbs
  7. kold weather
    Southern eyewall on radar just looking a touch less full than it has been in the last hour. Could be just the first hints of shear starting to impart upon the system. Probably won't weaken the system all that much, especially the northern quadrant at this point and given how relatively close to landfall we are now. Probably going to have to be the next two missions of recon if we are going to get a cat-5, preferably within the next 2hrs I suspect.
  8. kold weather
    Even at 145mph it pretty ranks up there on its own. Makes it the 3rd strongest USA landfalling hurricane since Andrew, only behind Hurricane Michael of 2018 and Charley. 150mph makes it joint 2nd with Charley.
  9. kold weather
    Next recon is probably going to be do or die on that front, especially with the risk of some shear possibly just starting to impact from that point onwards may just prevent any further strengthening past 00z. Something to keep an eye on. Regardless this is likely going to be one of/the strongest hurricane to ever impact this region and a high cat-4 is going to be very destructive.
  10. kold weather
    Couple of points: 1: NO hint of any EWRC at the moment, no obvious moat nor any double wind maxima showing. Suggests the inner core is still tightening up. 2: Thus far no obvious signs of any mid level shear. Its a close call as to whether it impacts Laura before it makes landfall as there was observed earlier today near the coast. Can;t rule out some shear on this just before landfall but its a borderline call. 3: The latest dropsonde has winds around 135kts+ literally a few hundred feet above the surface, with 155kts around 900hpa. To me in my experience, would suggest gusts could well get into that 135-155kts range in the strongest eyewall convection on the Right Front Quadrant. IF Laura undergoes any further deepening those 135+ winds likely to be dragged to the surface and a category-5 at that point becomes very probable. 4: Turn NNW now started. IMO any error will be to the east from this point onwards.
  11. kold weather
    Yeah it's going to be a close call. I think it's just going to fall short BUT even if it held current strength at 120kts it'd be the 2nd strongest landfalling hurricane on US soil since Andrew, only behind Michael of 18 I believe. Imo around 130kts looking around the mark. Not impossible to squeeze a cat5 still.
  12. kold weather
    Offically now a category 3, first major of the season. As for whether it becomes a 5, typically systems in this part of the GoM don't get that high, but then again there is always a chance...I'd say something between 125-135kts is looking probable, anything above that is at the whims of any EWRC and maybe the shear.
  13. kold weather
    I think I saw on the dropsonde something borderline cat-4 around 800mbs up, not hard to see that mixing down to the surface in pretty quick order given the strong convectiob and tigthening eyewall. Simply put, this will 100% be a cat-4 sooner rather than later. Beyond that and something in the 920s would be my best guess for lowest point, but its a large strong hurricane and regardless of 940 or 920 its going to be a very powerful hurricane upon landfall, even if there is a little shear around to take the edge off the top end at landfall.
  14. kold weather
    Extrapolated is probably well off for the NOAA flight (it quite often is when flying higher up). BUT AF recon flight has shown it down to 961mbs extrap now, so thats a drop of 7mbs in 45 mins from the previous flight (and the previous flight was a direct hit on the center, so thats a legitimate drop! Expect a 4 sooner rather than later, and likely going towards 920s based on everything I'm seeing at the moment. Probably will be a 4 by 18z as winds may take a little time to catch up. Eye really clearing out rapidly at the moment and the eyewall looks very solid now and closed looking at recent microwave imagery. Only thing that stops a 5 at this point will be an EWRC kicking off before landfall.
  15. kold weather
    Classic evolution from banding eye with a weak convective eyewall (you see these often in the WPAC) through to a more classic strengthening CDO, helped by a drop in the northerly shear that was from the north. IMO we will probably see quite large pressure drops in the next 24hrs, though winds maybe a little laggy behind that pressure drop unless the core has really tightened up compared to earlier. Recon flying through right now, suspect we will see pressure somewhere in the 983-980mbs range, but I maybe off there! If I am off, its going to be lower than I expect. PS - track wise, these systems typically end up on the right side of the NHC forecast at this sort of time range with systems curving northwards, so I suspect extreme west LA may end up landfall zone, a little east of NHC current forecast. EDIT 1 - Recon found: 225030 2448N 08837W 7513 02383 9839 +187 +139 060017 019 026 004 00 Not a bad call on pressure, my range was just a touch too low!
  16. kold weather
    Huge rotation on southern side of cell moving across A3 just north of Bordon. Spotted a funnel cloud on it and radar looks like a hook is present as well at the time it was spotted. Wouldn't be shocked if it spins a small tornado at some point. I've rarely seen such obvious rotation, whole south-west flank is spinning.
  17. kold weather
    Models really starting to get interested in future 98l. Too early to call with track or intensity but a broad WNW track towards the Leewards and perhaps close or just at North of the greater Antilles. From there if the ridging is strong enough a US threat is possible but that's a little way down the path still.
  18. kold weather
    Deep rumbles from the cell just to the NW (back home today) and very dark. Could see more cells pop just about anywhere in the region that has had cells already today. Some back building evident today as cells are relatively short lived and get replaced by daughter cells.
  19. kold weather
    Quite a lot of convection rolling up from France at the moment, could stint the risks for the SE if there is enough cloud cover associated with then. Looking pretty weak as well. One upshot maybe any outflow boundaries from the decaying cells may trigger something else. Meanwhile a great looking line to the north of London!
  20. kold weather
    I tend to agree. Also whilst instability isn't quite as high tomorrow it's still a very workable amount with Arome for example suggesting close to 1000 Cape for the south at peak heating. With that being said obviously the further south and east you go the less likely you are as initiation in these flows maybe too far NW unless convergence lines line up for you. Hard to call at this point. Anything moving up from France appears to be rather poor based on the models sadly.
  21. kold weather
    Not common you see MCS features quite as large as that over the UK. Tends to be more common over Spain and France.
  22. kold weather
    Honestly not too fussed about it, loved seeing the cloud structures today and watch them blow up in real time! Good instability to use tomorrow before we move into thundery rain territory. I will be back home as well tomorrow in hopefully a better primed area. Definate lightning from the cells over towards Kent's coast.
  23. kold weather
    Can see distant lightning to the ESE from Littlehampton from the cells about to move into Kent, the western side of the MCS looks useless so just rain here. Hopefully the muck clears out quickly and allows good convective opportunity like today across regions that so far have had no luck
  24. kold weather
    I think some people just annoyed because there is so much energy aloft that anything that develops will become very strong and alot have suffered with the heat the most overnight in the southern counties. I think Thursday could be genuinely interesting still for the south but beyond that we are morphing into thundery rain territory with nothing all that interesting bar maybe the odd rumble. Whether that will satisfy people probably rests on tomorrow. I was at my parents today so missed the huge storm that blew up, but it really was a stunning looking system even from the south coast. No complaints here.
  25. kold weather
    I'm thinking the exact same thing, moderate/heavy rain with the literal occasional rumble to remind us what could be!
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