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kold weather

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Everything posted by kold weather

  1. kold weather
    Could run the risk of having the cold air skew off SW too much, though of course it is just one run. Still far better than some of the guff last year if that's the worst case in that scenario. Not a bad gfs, would be reasonably cool at the surface though upper temps are probably going to be on the milder side of the ensemble
  2. kold weather
    Decent enough morning runs compared to where we could be and of course the ECM looks good. GEM also has a possible very marginal event for the SE, though it looks about as marginal as you can get frankly. The GFS is meh compared to some others on its 00z run, though it does fit the ECM 46 day very nicely in terms of predicted pattern and precip anomalies so it may also be onto something unfortunately.
  3. kold weather
    Looks like we will end up in a weak Atlantic situation with the upper trough axis being probably close by to the UK with the main frontal zones probably being to our south which is reflected in the precip maps above. Also means the worst of the above average air is kept to the east, but whilst we keep this pattern there is only limited chances for anything beyond cooler than average to show up, probably from the NW in that type of set-up. The worry has to be that this period is as good as the background synoptics are going to get, especially if we do not any stratospheric disruption for the 2nd half of winter. I know its somewhat decoupled right now, but I always worry about how long such a situation can hold for.
  4. kold weather
    Having looked through the actual ECM ensembles there really is quite alot of disagreement actually despite what the clusters suggest, though quite a few do have some sort of N/NW influence at day 10, but many are what I'd describe as at best glancing blows, or limpet northerlies/north-westerlies that won't be nearly cold enough aloft for any all that interesting outside of maybe high ground in the north. Below average though still favoured on the ensembles, but its cool rather than cold on a great many of them.
  5. kold weather
    Got to say the 18z doesn't evolve the way we really want it, however there are a fairly high number of ECM ensemble members that aren't that different by 240hrs with LP strengthening either to our NW or N. Some move it close enough to pull in a decent WNW, some get it far enough east to drag down some form of cold air, others end up us back in a net W/SW type airflow. Plenty to get through before that point however. Its not a bad run later on, but its certainly not a great one either past a marginal easterly airflow.
  6. kold weather
    A snizzle chart if ever I've seen one! There is enough there to work with in terms of precip, but I doubt anywhere is going to be getting anything beyond flurries from that of course.
  7. kold weather
    I don't mind that, but of course you run the risk that they simply never part full stop, as we saw last winter. With a strong ENSO event I worry that omnce something like that sets-up its going to be mighty hard to decouple them and is going to need the potluck of some major PV disruption event, certainly no guarantee. The longer they can stay decoupled the greater the chances we can establish some early sort of upper high that we can use, especially if we can keep the set-up closer to El nino look throughout the atmosphere (again, no certainty that will last through the winter, would be classic if it shifted late winter so we get the worst of both worlds so to speak!) Thumbing through the ECM ensembles, its fair to say that most are a little cooler than average, but very little give anything that sustained or noteworthy. Equally on the positive side, few go all that mild either.
  8. kold weather
    I tend to agree for the moment, the set-up however is still quite a bit removed from where we could be if we had a coupled Strat-Troph situation like last winter rapidly evolved into. At the very least its looking increasingly cool by day and we should start to see some frosts next week under a subtle continental wind (though I think it might be somewhat limited due to cloud cover). Still time for changes to allow the set-up to become very interesting for all of the country. At the moment its probably a C+ type set-up we are seeing, its far from as bad as it could be but if it doesn't evolve into something more interesting on its own it won't be much to note.
  9. kold weather
    To be honest the ECM ensembles from 00z also showed large variations, most however were on the somewhat cooler side, though only a handful were really all that interesting. No point getting too hung up on FI yet given quite a wide range of option on the table
  10. kold weather
    Taking a look through the actual maps throughout the ensemble and there is alot of different variations out there for those cooler set-ups, from having HP over the south of England keeping it cooler, through to northerly topplers, through to weak easterly flows. Good to have choice but given this is a La Nina winter and everything happening in the stratosphere with the strengthening upper PV, we can only fight so long against the inevitable and most of those set-ups aren't going to be bringing much snow away from maybe the mountains. Quite a few of the evolutions tend to be under-forecasted max temp wise by the models for somewhere like London, so may not be quite as cool as the ensembles would suggest if those were to come off. Edit - there are some ensemble members from all suites that do have marginal snow events, BUT at this time of year and given we've had basically no cold at all thus far especially further south, I'd not want to assume they would have much of a chance of being on the right side of marginal if they were to come off however.
  11. kold weather
    That pattern the 06z sets up in the 2nd half of its run tends to be a very stubborn pattern that can hold basically in situ for weeks with varying ebbs and flows depending on the depth of the upstream low pressure systems. Its about one of the most boring weather patterns I could think of. We really don't want that setting into place otherwise that will be the 2/3rds of December gone.
  12. kold weather
    Its not hard to see how we coyuyld evolve into a colder pattern on the 12z ECM, I've seen that evolution countless times. It doesn't tend to shove that cold air down due to the evolution of how the upper high move to our north and the way the cold air shifts around, but it'll be enough by early December to provide so interest, and like Nov 10 it can sometimes become a longer term pattern if it establishes well.
  13. kold weather
    When it comes to this winter I'm really expecting nothing sustained at all, youve got an ever strengthening upper vortex that might get close to near record levels. I can't believe there won't be synchronization at some point with the tropospheric response if that kinda vortex hangs around for meaningful amount of time. We therefore already are putting all hopes on some sort of ssw event to pop that vortex. Then you have a borderline strong la Nina event, and I'm personally never a fan of strong enso events (though of course 2010 December was a strong la Nina just starting to decay). However in 2010 the building blocks were basically In place already, we couldn't be much further removed it feels at the moment. This not to say that winter is a write off, and sometimes big events can happen in otherwise less than stellar years, but going below average is already looking unlikely imo.
  14. kold weather
    Crazy drops in pressure between two recon passes, the type of drop I've only seen in a handful of occasions in my 16 years in this site. Now down to 935mbs which is a 10mb drop in less than an hour. The presentation of Iota is impressive and no doubts still intensifying. Next recon in about 6hrs time should be very interesting, legitimate shot at a cat-5 if it can stay away from EWRC.
  15. kold weather
    Presentation screams cat 5 right now, and possibly va high end one as well. Actually not dissimilar to Goni in the WPAC last week. May well be the 2nd ever November cat 5. Recon is in there and will let us know shortly
  16. kold weather
    Worrying how each of the last three years had quite slow regrowth into October. Hopefully that isn't a sign that the optimal freezing window is starting to shorten yet further. Of course if you get a good PV winter up there, then it is recoverable, but eventually we are going to get unstuck with that with a more amplified jet up there.
  17. kold weather
    Microwave imagery strongly hints that Delta is going through a quickfire EWRC. Recon found no evidence a few hours ago of a secondary eyewall but with such a tiny eye the internal structure will shift very rapidly and such systems have often simply powered through and not weakened at all as they normally do when undergoing this process. Recon will probably give a better idea of whether this is actually happening. Such tiny eyes are rarely very stable for too long. I know the NHC don't think this is the case, but its very suspect to me and whilst I bow down to their superior knowledge, its not the first time I've seen this type of presentation.
  18. kold weather
    Well it was a cat-3 for all of about 2hrs! Thats very explosive strengthening happening at the moment. Been on the cards for a while but I see little reason not to call for a cat-5 now, the waters its travelling are the most favourable in the entire basin and it historically has popped off deep systems in the past. The heat content is basically akin to the WPAC - and this system is evolving into a system similar. Also - hard to not look back at Wilma and see some comparisons...worryingly its probably near 950mbs and 130mph and still hasn't got an obvious clear eye yet.
  19. kold weather
    Latest recon dropsonde almost certainly justifies 100kts, possibly even 105kts. 115kts recorded from the dropsonde, allowing for that being a possible gust, we still likely have major hurricane Delta and it will join Beta 05 as the 2nd such 'greek' hurricane to become a major. Eye should be popping out soon on IR more clearly, on zoomed in imagery the eye is quite easy to spot even in visible. 5mbs drop between the last 2 passes.
  20. kold weather
    It basically will pull an Opal from 1995, or Lili from 2002, where it will probably get to 4/5 (my bet is the latter) somewhere in the Nw Caribbean, or if it does miss the Yucatan, then possibly far south of the Gulf. The further west it can get the longer it will stay in the warmer waters, but the coastal shelf looks like it has cooled alot, so it will probably develop quite a lopsided look like many weakening canes tend to do coming into landfall in the GoM area. Still could be a 2/3 though IMO. Extrapolated pressure down to 959mbs. going to be some big drops I suspect today. Still think somewhere between 900-920mbs looking possible.
  21. kold weather
    Some strong structural development overnight, though it hasn't as of yet been able to keep a solid eyewall around that very small eye which has stopped it from really bombing. With that being said, IR is starting to become very suggestive of a pinhole eye and recon reported a 8nm eye. Still a reasonable chance of getting to cat-5 with this, though as with all pinhole eyes it will be somewhat at the mercy of tiny changes aloft and internal structural changes. If the eye does pop out, expect some very rapid deepening.
  22. kold weather
    Don't be surprised if this ends up as a category-5 at some point in the next 36hrs. Also pressure is very low compared to what you'd expect, somewhat close to what we'd see usually in the WPAC. Recon just extrapolated a 978.4mbs which for a borderline high end TS/cat-1 cane is a very impressive pressure recording. Also don't be surprised if this ends up somewhat close to 900mbs as well tomorrow providing it doesn't have any unexpected hiccups.
  23. kold weather
    Front hanging on in the SE far longer than last nights Met office forecast predicted, I was a little shocked when they said today would be sunny and showery in the SE, never thought that looked hugely realistic apart from perhaps the very far SE as the fronts back edge looks fairly thin cloud wise. This is probably almost as far west as the main band will go. The eastern portion of the front may wel ebb and wane until the main band swings back eastwards as the LP pulls away over N.France and takes the front east over our neck of the woods again.
  24. kold weather
    Still looks to be strengthening to me, dvorak estimate from myself would be around 4.0, though its edging closer and closer to 4.5 but not quite there yet IMO. I'd say probably looking at 70kts at the moment, one of the stronger storms in the med. Really do need an agency to start monitering these systems, especially as the med warms due to climate change true warm cored systems are going to become more possible.
  25. kold weather
    Deepening eyewall rotating around the center forming a weak eye feature. Dvorak curved pattern, probably a 4.0 though an argument might even be made for nearly 4.5 in terms of the raw number anyway. Using my 16 years of watching the tropics, I'd hazard this is around 65kts at the moment, maybe a touch less to allow ramp up time. However I really do hate the term medicane.... This is probably is/going to be a hurricane. I suspect Med countries don't want to have to open a basin in the Mediterranean (currently no one is responsible for this area, despite many weak/moderate systems now being recorded over the last 40 years). my cynical side is its all for tourism reasons which many of those countries depend upon heavily. Not a great look to suddenly be in a location that is at risk of a hurricane. A 'medicane' can just be discarded easier due to less association.
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