UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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I'm not so sure there is really, as high blood pressure blights many of those in Asia.
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Good advice from the above, just too add good luck and fingers crossed for some fine weather.
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But they do fluxate monthly and I wasn't the one saying how the PDO was pseudo science. I know exactly why BFTV was inferring such. I've posted a graph which shows the PDO index I would posts more but find the constant nit picking tiresome. This is just a continuation of what goes on the climate thread and why I won't post there no more, anyway he's on my banned list now.What? sorry to but in but viewing the discussion from outside it seems odd that you even completely make up peoples claims. Failure to accept any evidence because 'you don't want to' or don't take it into account, and then even make up claims of what people said to then use as ammunition is laughable and typical of some who see AGW though skeptical spectacles (nothing wrong in being skeptical in it's self if open minded...)
Where on earth did he deny it's influence? you're the one that came close to that and said 'the monthly indexes fluxate monthly and have no impact on our climate.'
Sorry, felt like I had to say it.
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I used the official data. I explained my reasoning, and gave evidence to justify it.
Yet all you do is call it laughable without addressing any of the points I made, and claim it's agenda driven? At least try to have a reasonable discussion.
Your link doesn't show 60 year phase cycles either.
It goes back much further!
Your denial of the PDO being a major player is typical of those who see science through AGW spectacles. For once be open minded. Not to worry from hereon as your now on my blocked lists as discussing weather and climate with you is akin to pulling teeth.
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Heres a reconstruction of the PDO cycle.
http://tinypic.com/r/2vjbj91/5
As for your claims of a pseudo-cycle, quite laughable really and clearly agenda driven.
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Also we have to consider Landscheidt theory on solar forcings and the PDO. Off course we are now going way off topic.
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The idea of the 30 year phases for the PDO aren't all that robust. From 1900 to the mid 30s, the PDO was largely neutral. There was a jump in +ve values around 1940. After that, there was a fall in values until the mid 50s, then it trended towards +ve values until the mid 80s, before trending -ve again until now.
I wouldn't be too surprised if we were back averaging +ve values again before by the end of the decade.
PDOAnnual.JPG[/quoteI highly doubt that as these cycles tend to last 20-30 years, I see no reason for this cycle to behave any differently to previous ones. -
But it remains in its negative phase and will continue that for quite some time yet, the monthly indexes fluxate monthly and have no impact on our climate.The monthly PDO data is here http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
April was -0.16, which is essentially neutral.
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I still think we'll see a fairly good first half of of the Summer with mid latitude blocking in place, thereafter heights transferring further North with the jet to our South. After last few years this will seem almost balmy, the CFS charts are the ones to follow IMO, not infallible but they have performed exceptionally well over the last year.
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Thats ENSO that's gone neutral not the PDO, that remains negative.This will shock you all, but the PDO has gone neutral now according to the ssts chart I am going to post:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.5.13.2013.gif
Which could be a positive influence for the summer.
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Its conjecture though Pete not science.Surely, when a paper contains real science, its content is more important than any names that happen to be on it...We're not talking 'Monckton' here.
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Here's some food for though regarding science in a lab and actual real life observations. Anyone familiar with Gore tex will know exactly what I mean, during the 90's WL Gore brought out a 2 layer fabric which they claimed through extensive testing was more breathable than the 3 layer equivalent. All the lab test backed up these claims of better moisture transportation in a two layer garment, however once it went on sale to the general public such claims were soon found to be wanting as the lining they inserted to protect the gore fabric inhibited breathability in real world conditions. Now the point of this is simple really as just because a theory works in a lab in the real world the results can be quite different, so we can put that theory to test with CO2 and feedbacks in the atmosphere, what we know in a lab could be actually quite the opposite in the real world, or is climate science above this sort of real world observational evidence.
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You lost the argument by presenting a paper by Hansen. I repeat please bring evidence to the table not conjecture. Go back through the records and show me anything what's happening now in both terms of frequency and intensity which hasn't already happened."This summer people are seeing extreme heat and agricultural impacts," Hansen says. "We're asserting that this is causally connected to global warming, and in this paper we present the scientific evidence for that."Hansen and colleagues analyzed mean summer temperatures since 1951 and showed that the odds have increased in recent decades for what they define as "hot," "very hot" and "extremely hot" summers.
To distinguish the trend from natural variability, Hansen and colleagues turned to statistics. In this study, the GISS team including Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy did not focus on the causes of temperature change. Instead the researchers analyzed surface temperature data to establish the growing frequency of extreme heat events in the past 30 years, a period in which the temperature data show an overall warming trend.NASA climatologists have long collected data on global temperature anomalies, which describe how much warming or cooling regions of the world have experienced when compared with the 1951 to 1980 base period. In this study, the researchers employ a bell curve to illustrate how those anomalies are changing.
How can this be A wild claim..? On top of all the other thousands of papers out there, how much evidence does one need?
Have you any evidence for your wild claim of it being a get rich quick franchise?
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Give a dog a bone and he'll chew on it all day long, the point I'm making is that there is so much money involved for scientist to make up such claims without providing any direct link and evidence, much more likely is a phrase that crops up time and time again in these studies. There is no evidence whatsoever, just tedious and repetitive wild claims, this isn't science it's a get rich quick franchise.Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warming
08.06.12
A new statistical analysis by NASA scientists has found that Earth's land areas have become much more likely to experience an extreme summer heat wave than they were in the middle of the 20th century. The research was published today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warming-links.html
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SI, seeing as you've previously dismissed peer reviewed science as "speculation", what kind of evidence will you accept in answer to your question?
Also, CO2 will not directly cause extreme weather, but will only contribute through indirect links, such as the increased atmospheric water vapour, changing the thermal gradient from the poles to souther latitudes, etc., but if all you're after is a correlation, that shouldn't be an issue.
Where have I dismissed peer reviewed science, questioned it yes. As for links directly or indirectly the jury remains firmly on the fence I would say.SI, seeing as you've previously dismissed peer reviewed science as "speculation", what kind of evidence will you accept in answer to your question?
Also, CO2 will not directly cause extreme weather, but will only contribute through indirect links, such as the increased atmospheric water vapour, changing the thermal gradient from the poles to souther latitudes, etc., but if all you're after is a correlation, that shouldn't be an issue.
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Are the waters around the equator not cooler than average at this moment in time John? If so would this not suggest a quieter season ahead?the latest ENSO update into my e mailhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdfIt is too early to give serious ideas I would think for the 2013 hurricane season but views are already appearing, partly based on the above output, that the season may be busier than average, one link below is usually reasonably free from overhype.http://staugustine.com/news/florida-news/2013-04-12/scientists-release-predictions-2013-hurricane-seasonNow how any of this fits into an idea of what the UK summer may be like I have no idea.Come back GP or perhaps chio and one or two others who dabble in longer term predictors might like to set this off.Maybe better for this anyway in the summer thread?
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Indeed it is, when there is no evidence at hand. Read that last paragraph and tell me that isn't propaganda.So anything that doesn't agree with your view,, even when made by respected scientists, is propaganda.
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I wasn't taking a pop at him, just some of the language expressed in that piece.I have the highest regard for Dr Jeff Masters, his posts on Weather Underground are balanced, thoughtful, wise and highly informed.
I actually don't think the cast iron evidence of more extremes is there, yet. It might be in the future.
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Sorry but I can't take that link seriously, it's nothing more than propaganda. Anyone with an interest in weather and past climate knows full well that all such events have occurred with same amount of frequency and intensity.
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I think any links between the two are tentative at best and one nether side could say yeah or nay.Are you asking for, as per your title, 'any evidence' or just 'physical evidence'? And how would you define 'extremes of weather'?
I think there is plenty of evidence our changing of CO2 conc will change the climate and thus the weather. I think there is evidence, for example, that the loss of Arctic sea is is bound up with rising CO2 conc. If we define extremes of weather as weather we wouldn't expect then I think we'll see more of that. If we define extremes of weather as weather causing loss of life or property then not much evidence yet but my view is we'll see it build up.
Just my view.
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Extremes of weather have, are and will continue to plague mankind, in my lifetime I've seen no increase in these events and going off past historical weather records the same can be said. Now off course such events could become more commonplace but as of yet I would say no change.
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For me there is no physical evidence showing a direct link between one and the other.
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There we go again relying far too much on climate models to fill in the missing data, it's simply not good enough saying that this is how other scientific areas gather data as they don't receive vast sums of money by manipulating what little data is available.
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I'm not so sure it would be cool and cloudy maybe for those in the East/SE but those further West would more than likely see plenty of warm sunshine.Thats not a great anomoly chart really though Gavin and suggests frequent blocking to the north-west of the UK. Chances are it would be cool, cloudy but not particularly wet at least.That positive 500hPa anomoly need to be over or to the east of the UK to produce warm, sunny weather.
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A much belated welcome Jo.