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shuggee

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    BBC Weather Forecasts and Graphics Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by shuggee

    Just watched the latest 16.57 BBC News 24 forecast with Peter Gibbs and for the first time I saw little arrows within the HIGH and LOW pressures indication the flow/circulation of air. Hope we see more of this as it's a great addition.

    :):D:)

    There seem to be two versions of this. I saw News24 earlier - and yes they show the circulations with arrows. However, on BBC1 Scotland tonight, the national forecast used moving chevrons on the Atlantic synoptic chart - which were even better and different colours! Very interesting developments - makes tuning in wothwhile atm, just to see the latest gadgetry in action (or is that a wee bit sad? :) )

    Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I think this exceptional mis-quote illustrates both poor journalism and the reason why this article can be safely ignored.

    According to forecasters, including the Meteorological Office, there is a 67 per cent chance this winter will be among the coldest on record. The prediction is based on measuring sea temperatures in the Atlantic.

    Members' winter forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ken Ring's Winter Forecast 2005/6 and even a shot at next year!

    Will it be a really cold winter?

    The official forecasters are saying yes, but we beg to differ. One might well wonder, whatever happened to their notion of global warming? With December promising to be quite mild, the UK winter this year should mainly occupy January through to March and should not be as cold or colder than last winter. The reason for this has nothing to do with manmade climate change and everything to do with the positioning of the lunar perigees, which are closest next year in February. The November perigee on the 10th of the month will be #13 for 2005, meaning that the moon is the 13th closest to Earth in that month, and at that distance its power is relatively diminished. Perigee #13 seldom brings really severe weather and unless coupled with a maximum declination or full or new moon can often pass unnoticed. November should deliver precipitation for most from the 19th-27th and in some areas extending to December 4th. These should be afternoon and evening showers, cold and with some sleet in northern districts to begin with, but after 26th any rain should be warmer with less chance of snow or hail. Coastal locations should experience milder conditions than elevated inland parts.

    Perigee #10 on December 5th occurs close on the heels of a southern declination, bringing relatively warm rains for December in the week before. The full moon of December 16th does not hold the promise of snow, only frosts and mostly clear days. Because this year's December full moon couples with northern declination closer to apogee than perigee, after the 4th most of December should be more dry than wet and the next time for significantly increased precipitation is likely to be over the last few days of the month, so a white Xmas for anywhere in the UK is not very likely. It will not be far away however, and snow and rain is expected to start on or just after Boxing Day, falling mainly at night. Having said that, and because I request a 3-4 day operating trend window, I suppose it must be said that there is the small chance of weather systems arriving early and snow indeed falling on Xmas Day. But the chance is small.

    January will have two perigees, #8 for 2006 on January 2nd, meaning the eighth closest for the year, and perigee #4 on the 30th. Thus the last few days of December and spilling into the New Year should see cold winter rain/snow but the coldest part of January may be once again in the last few days of the month. In Ireland the first three days of the year may be more dry than wet. Northern Scotland, Wales and Cornwall and greater part of England may see clearer weather about the 3rd-4th. For all except Lancashire eastwards morning rain may arrive from the 6th onwards. Around the full moon on the 14th daytime snow should come thick and fast perhaps even reaching S England and Suffolk, with falls easing in the south around the 18th and easing for the rest of the country around 25th-29th. Around January 30th most regions should get a return of snow and bad winter weather, with falls again overnight.

    The coldest winter month should be February, with perigee #1 combining with New moon on the 28th, making days around this day the expected worst of the month. March may also turn colder around the last week, with perigee #5 on March 28th. Winter snowfalls could continue as far down as Cumbria into April, but only until the middle of the month. On April 13th winter showers will dramatically cease for most, and clearer weather will arrive. The widespread feeling will be that winter will be over .

    Following winter, spring should be milder in 2006, without the searing heat of recent years and summer heat is not likely to not kick in till later in the season, with August and September possibly the warmest months of summer. October, too, should be mild and the autumn should turn out to be pleasantly warm.

    The following winter of 2006/7 should be very mild.

    Members' winter forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Here's Kold Weather's November forecast - hot off the press (but not affecting the possibility of cold spells, obviously).

    Week 1

    The start of November sees a trough digging down to our west.This trough is Vertically alinged right the way down to the surface.So the general pattern for the first week should be driven by a fairly northerly running jet stream.I can see The first few days being a tad on the unsettled side with LP systems swinging NE/NNE.This should ensure winds will likely contniue cming from the SW although this may change depending on the exact axis the LP takes.Fronts will cross the area from the west as the system passes to our north and could give a fairly wet midweek to most of the country although as normal in this set-up the south-east would be driest.It could also get a little gusty in the north.

    Towards the end of the first week and we see a subtle change.A strong Jet streak emerges from NE America and with it a rapidly deepening LP system which goes from 990mbs to 940mbs in roughly 30hrs.What this does is throw a strong ridge towards Europe.What happens next will depend on what the LP I mentioned above does and its track,if it contniues eastwards then it'll encourage a bartlett type situation,while if it dives more south-eastwards we will form a block to our east which would cause SE/E winds.Either way we will keep the warm theme going,although if the low heads South-eastwards more we could see some good condtions for bonfire night as the high transfers northwards and thier could be a cooler intrusion for the north as the LP that was to our west on the firs few days transfers eastwards allowing for a WNW to start.

    Week 2

    The problem here is what to believe,either way I expect a generally settled start to the week with high pressure quite close by with a fairly strong jet to the north keeping us under winds from the west.Even a block forms to our east that should contniue to move away and by the midway part of the second week we should be back in the same set-up anyway.I expect that pressure will remian quite high over Europe and also to the our north-east and so south-westerlies with the odd secondary depressions spwaning of from the stronger depressions close to the PFJ.Towards the end of the week I think we will see the set-up become a little bit more favorable to us.I think a low pressure cell may start to dive south-eastwards and push down the north sea into Europe allowing for a NW intrusion to occur,hard to be exact and its just a hunch at this stage.For now I suspect it won't be anything major but I suppose it will give most areas thier first major frost.

    Week 3

    Pattern stays quite mobile with winds mainly coming in from the west.I also suspect another burst of energy will occur in the jet stream over this week but more importantly I can see the postion of the rosby waves to be more favorable for a more unsettled week with gales and heavy rain for the west.Also of note wil lbe the PFJ's track,I suspect it'll be a much more W-E rather then SW-NE pattern it would have been in since the start of the month.High pressure likely to be over the Azores but playing no real part in our weather and also pressure growing over Greenland but being stopped from advancing southwards by a strong jet.

    Week 4

    The end of the month I feel could be quite intresting.After being very active I think the jet will quieten down but more importantly for our weather I think we will see a strong trough digging down in the GIN sea with pressure building over Greenland and the Azores high heading towards the Mid-atlantic.This should hopefully spell the start of a decent northerly which would give a fair amount of snow to the north.This will topple though withthe jet being still to acitve but prehaps most intrestingly I have a hunch it may topple towards the U.K giving a few frosty days to enter December.After that and were into complete guesswork land I suppose but I think a fairly mobile December is on the card,possibly snowy for the north and Scotland at times.

    CET-0.8C above

    Rainfall-120% above in the north-west,80% in the south-east

    Sunshine-80 in NW,95% in SE.

    Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Not to mention the privatisation of road maintenance. There have already been instances up here of A Trunk Roads not being properly treated - and crazy examples of the inherent inefficiencies of councils still retaining responsibility for side roads - which have to be accessed off the main roads - which they won't grit themselves. Etc etc etc...

    BBC Weather Forecasts and Graphics Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well, our earlier questions are beginning to be answered - and it isn't looking terribly good.

    Today and tomorrow is the first proper borderline wintry event in Scotland. Snow above 600m; so what do the BBC graphics show? Rain. Yes, a comment from the forecaster - but no supporting graphic.

    Now, since the geography of the UK doesn't change much day-to-day, how hard can it be to 'ring fence' the mountains over certain heights - and then when ppn falls in these areas, show the correct graphic?

    Only one more test now - and that's mild wet weather moving into cold air and turning to snow either on its leading or trailing edge. I'm not holding my breath however.

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