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Wivenswold

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Everything posted by Wivenswold

  1. Wivenswold
    Looks very overcast here. Surely we're not going to be lucky enough to have a taster.
  2. Wivenswold
    Can everyone please make sure they put their location in their info so that we can get excited about your location reports with you?
  3. Wivenswold
    Alex Deakin has tweeted that there will be snow showers in the East tonight. Hopefully that includes East Anglia.
  4. Wivenswold
    I hate that old saying. Technically the coldest weather seems to occur under high pressure (certainly in this country) so when it is very cold there's generally little moisture in the air. Also, around freezing is where you get the big flakes, colder conditions generally bring ice pellets. But too cold for snow? Get out of it.
  5. Wivenswold
    Zakos re "the met have clearly binned the GFS 06z". How do you know that? The Met Office haven't clearly binned it, as per Ian F's comments earlier, they don't consider it in their forecasts, regardless of what it throws up. They look at 00z and 12z only.
  6. Wivenswold
    I guess this uncertainty is why we love model discussion in the first place. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in mission control, Exeter at the moment. All of this will, in the long term, help the weather community's understanding of SSW events and also identify weaknesses in the super computers' performances. Every blip like this is for the long-term good of forecasting. Imagine how dull it would be if we knew, 21 days in advance, that we'd have 10cm of snow between 6pm and 9pm tonight?
  7. Wivenswold
    I'm not sure Ian meant that exactly. With 6 hourly updates I guess the Met Office can't keep reassessing their forecasts. There may be just a practical reason for choosing to review GFS 00z & 12z outputs (i.e. timewise they match Met Office outputs), it may even be that 06z & 18z tend to verify less for whatever reason. I don't think we should necessarily discount this latest GFS run as rubbish. Even though I'd love it to be.
  8. Wivenswold
    Shortwaves are perhaps the most volitile feature on these models. To be worrying about 1 run on 1 model that is upset by such a feature is jumping the gun somewhat. Especially as the Met Office have been ignoring GFS in the last week.
  9. Wivenswold
    I always wait for the NAE model to come into the timeframe before I start looking at where snow might fall. At present GFS is predicting sub zero dew points to spread SE from late Saturday night, so until that point anything falling will be rain. It looks as if it will be a wintry mix on the Northern edge of the rain band as it heads south, so I don't think anywhere in the SE will wake to a thick blanket of snow on Sunday morning. Looking at the models and taking on board the Met Office caution I think the real snow action won't happen until Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Once the cold is entrenched.
  10. Wivenswold
    We've been here before with GFS. Mark my words the 18z output will be brilliant for cold lovers only for the 00z to temper that excitement. ECM tonight I think will just cause more confusion as to what will happen after Friday. I hope not, but it's a gut feeling.
  11. Wivenswold
    Looking at +174hrs on GFS, I'd put good money on that mid-Atlantic low steaming West once we get to Low-res output. But I don't think anyone should panic about it.
  12. Wivenswold
    Yep, I've sneaked out of bed so I can watch this one approach.
  13. Wivenswold
    It may be my limited understanding of the charts but I can't really see where this SE Wind event is. Isobars on the models don't appear to be particularly tight and mean wind speeds even for the middle of the Channel don't look anything out of the ordinary. Can someone enlighten me please? I've got to travel tomorrow morning.
  14. Wivenswold
    Nothing to report 2 miles away here in Wivenhoe.
  15. Wivenswold
    Just had our first really strong gust here and the worst is still hours away.
  16. Wivenswold
    National Rail website is reporting a landslide at Dawlish.
  17. Wivenswold
    About 12.30am. Long Beach and New Jersey suffering substantial flooding according to ABC.
  18. Wivenswold
    No, my thinking was that if they are now planning for Zone B evacuation, then they will want it to be orderly. The authorities will need to have everything in place ready. I'm not suggesting that the public are being misinformed at all. If the information isn't conveyed at an appropriate time an evacuation could turn into a stampeed. In a similar way, the Met Police kept spouting the "Power surges" line until the London Underground was completely evacuated on 7/7. A short delay and some carefully managed information can stop panic and save lives.
  19. Wivenswold
    Possibly don't want to cause mass panic, Snow Joke.
  20. Wivenswold
    Yep, rain digging in here. Can't measure it but I'd say it's that kind of rain that makes you want to spend the afternoon in the pub.
  21. Wivenswold
    For those on the Essex/Suffolk coast, some cracking Anvils from over Belgium way.
  22. Wivenswold
    Well, if nothing else, I've had an unexpectedly beautiful day during my week off. Nudging 24oC at the moment.
  23. Wivenswold
    According to Meteox radar, that area off the Sussex coast has fired-up. Given humidity (70%), dew point (17.5oC) and temp (23.5oC) here it could really explode if it makes it further north.
  24. Wivenswold
    Lots of booms coming from the South of here. Sadly I think it's the MOD praticising their friendly fire over Foulness Island.
  25. Wivenswold
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/ Looks like it's suddenly pepped-up again on the 20:30 radar image. Nicely positioned for NE Essex too. Hopefully we'll get a good storm and then it fades-out before it reaches flood risk areas.
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