Wivenswold

00z GFS still has centre of the low brushing the NW tip of Scotland which is further north than the average track shown on the above maps. UK Meto further South too. Latest NAE seems to downplay chances of shortwaves interferring with main system. I'm looking forward to pouring over each new run with a jewellers' eyepiece.

What I meant was that a lot of New Yorkers doubted that the system would be a hurricane by the time it reached them.

Word from New Yorker I know is that they were always more worried about the amount of rain this would bring. Many just didn't think it would maintain strength all the way up there. Though they are a stoical bunch so they would say that.

Interesting watching shipping taking cover on this website; http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/ Was astonished to see two vessels heading out of Wilmington, one cargo ship is heading for New Orleans. Can't imagine it's going make it very far before it has to take shelter.

Yes, it's sad that politics gets in the way of coherent advice. I guess it would be the same in a lot of different situations. Take the riots for example, there's never been a time when all 3 parties have been so responsible for the Country's ills, but that didn't stop them scoring points off each other. And they wonder why there's so little interest in politics these days. Anyway, vent response done. Back to Irene....

Currently watching the distant light show over Belgium. It looks like a monster. Shame it's 90 miles away.

There's something building WSW of me towards Chelmsford too. Sea breeze has really picked up here.

Got very excited there. Big boom to the south. Then I remembered that the MOD often 'dispose' of bombs on Foulness Island during the week.

First storm of the year here. Torrential for about 10 minutes. Lots of rumbles but no lightning seen due to very poor visibility. now had lightning and a loud clap.

Afraid not. I've been looking out to sea for 20 minutes and can't see any distant lightning.

Lines of ac forming to the South of here over the Thames Estuary/North Sea.

A couple of far-off rumbles and some night-time lightning about 50 miles across the sea in the last 12 months, suggest that us East Anglians don't always get the storms. And knowing my luck I'll be in London working when it finally arrives.

As a Glastonbury veteran I can say that you don't need to worry about rain before the event. The clay ground dries quickly if there aren't thousands of people trampling all over it. 2003 saw a lot of rain in the lead-up and on the Friday morning, but was mud free. In 2007 there was loads of torrential rain the day before it opened and the ground was fine until Friday lunchtime, unfortunately it rained through the night Friday and Saturday so the ground didn't recover and turned to sludge. I didn't go but 2008 and 2009 saw a bit of rain and they were fine too. Just don't camp next to a pathway and if it's still muddy on Sunday give some serious thought to leaving overnight to avoid getting stuck in a car park.

I seem to recall that the forecasts where looking showery at this point for last year. Then it just got better and better. You could do with rain on the Wednesday to be honest, the queues last year were half a mile long when the gates opened.

Yes, welcome Chris. Please don't stay too long though, you usually end up with a few bitter people sitting around mumbling to themselves. Like me when looking at the CAPE charts for today.

We're in this together Donna. Wivenhoe had a few drops of rain in the early hours. Our only chance is when that band of rain heads west tomorrow, but it'll probably run through first thing before convective activity really gets going. Pah!

What is this assessment based upon? Do you have data that confirms that eastern counties will miss out or is this just pessimism on your part?

A surprising lack of optimism on here again before the forecast event has even started. Some perspective is needed I think. It's the 5th day of May, some 19 days before the official start of the summer and we're looking forward to the 3rd potentially thundery spell with hints in the models that a 4th event could be a week away. Estofex is positive, Met Monkey is positive, the Bracknell fax charts look good and the NAE output shows promise. I'm wondering whether it'll be best to split the storm threads into areas so that those lucky enough to get a storm can discuss it in great detail without winding-up members of the no-storms club.

From a IMBY point of view I can't see anywhere in East Anglia getting a storm this weekend. My attention is already on the potential plume set-up next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

I'm staying in for the time being. I've so far seen a flash on the horizon and heard a very distant rumble but I don't think that's enough to say farewell yet.

As with Sprites, the disappointing lack of storms heading our way is tempered by the fact that it's unexpectedly warm and sunny here. 17.5oC at present and feeling warmer than that.

So close here. Each area of storms seems to fizzle out when crossing the North Sea.

Here goes. Will it make it across a cold North Sea though? http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar Wish it was dark and clear here, I'd be able to see my first lightning of the year.

Oh yes, summer 2005. June in fact. I was at Glastonbury. I've never seen a storm like it. We were sat by the bar that used to be uphill from the John Peel Tent. The band British Sea Power had been sat near to us earlier in the evening as I recall. About midnight flashes could be seen towards the English Channel. As they got brighter we headed back to our tents. Sleep was impossible that night as thunder rumbled around the hills. There was quite a lot of rain so when it eased up at 6am I got up and walked across the site. I was delighted that it had all soaked into the ground and there was no mud. I bought a bacon sandwich and a cup of coffee and headed over to the Pyramid stage to have a sit-down. At that moment there was an almighty clap of thunder, I quickly headed back to the tent and was only 10 ft away when the heavens opened and I jumped under a gazeebo. The rain and hail was so heavy I couldn't actually go any closer. From my vantage point I saw lightning hit many of the stages and an observation post (about 100 metres from me). A river of flood water came down the slopes and started washing tents away. I can still hear the screams. The whole thing was terrifying. We were stranded for 3 hours on a high bit of ground wondering whether the event would continue. When the first band started up at about 1pm the roar from around the campsite was overwhelming and one of the best things I've ever experienced.

Dew point rising quickly here, now 12.1oC, air temp 23.5oC