Kirkcaldy Weather

I'd like to begin by looking back at my post from April 11th, there are multiple reasons for me doing this with the main reason being significant developments or rather a lack of in a sense. In the above post I was discussing the Indian Ocean Dipole outlooks from then which were trending into more of a re emerging stronger +IOD however during the past month a significant change has occured. BOM IOD outlook from the post above Newest BOM outlook Discussion from BOM "The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The most recent value of the IOD index (+0.22 °C) is the second consecutive weekly value within historically neutral thresholds. This follows 7 weeks of the index being above the positive IOD threshold (+0.40 °C). Typically, a positive IOD event is considered underway once the IOD index is sustained above +0.40 °C for about 8 weeks. Atmospheric indicators in March and April also indicated that a positive IOD event may have been developing. However, the latest SST and atmospheric observations suggest any potential development may have stalled. If a positive IOD develops, it would be earlier in the calendar year than is typical historically. Bureau modelling suggests positive IOD conditions in May and into winter. However, the latest forecasts are suggesting a weaker positive IOD than earlier forecasts. At this time of year, historical skill of IOD forecasts beyond autumn is low." Credit http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean I'd class this as a weakly positive IOD. Met Office IOD Outlook from the post above Newest Outlook Credit Tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature forecasts WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Climate centres use several standard regional averages of sea surface temperature anomalies as indices to monitor the state of the tropical oceans. Other Model Outlooks CS3 via cyclonicwx NMME CANSIPS CFS Interesting that the CANSIPS is the only model keen on a stronger +IOD, it and the NMME show a gradual cooling of the current IOBW warm phase during Winter, Met Office suggesting similar As this is all interconnected in various ways this evolution will be linked to teleconnective feedback particularly the MJO and ENSO behaviour and recent Atmospheric conditions. Main drivers of Indian Ocean Dipole asymmetry revealed by a simple IOD model WWW.NATURE.COM npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Main drivers of Indian Ocean Dipole asymmetry revealed by a simple IOD model Speaking of the MJO, delving further into recent progression of this current cycle during May thus far we've seen progression via phases 4,5,6,7,8,1 & 2 Credit JMA We are seeing the feedback of this cycle via many 500hpa developments, I'll highlight some of these. Starting with phases 4 & 5 Low Pressure developments to the Northwest, North and Northeast of the UK and Ireland Rossby Wave Breaking across America High pressure development from Mexico across Southeast East & NorthEast America involved in the Rossby Wave Breaking This also sees High Pressure from the Atlantic through the UK and into Scandinavia with low pressures toward Central and Southeast Europe, linking to the continuing negative PNA Neutral ENSO El Ninò La Nina Negative PDO High pressure extending Eastward from Japan + Low pressure across Alaska Great representation of the High / Ridge in the Atlantic with Low pressures further East Per my previous posts I was discussing the liklihood we'd witness an uptick in Tropical developments from approximately Mid May - 15th, many areas in play here I'll look at them individually. East Pacific Via an ongoing Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave from South America and America this will send vorticity from NorthEastern South America into the East Pacific Cyclonic formation probable during this weekend, current trends have potential to be relatively close to the Southwestern Mexico Coast but with the MJO feedback a building high across Mexico looks to have the steering flow adjust westward Amazingly the 18zs have backed off on substantial cyclonic formation A good example that favourable Sea surface temperatures are only one of the key parameters and don't automatically mean cyclonic formation. Names for the 2024 East Pacific Season With the MJO currently moving across the Indian Ocean this is currently the most active zone for Tropical developments unsurprisingly, we have Tropical Storm Ilay which looks to meander toward the Coasts of Tanzania but especially Kenya and Somalia. We also have Invest 93S located south of the Maldives, this looks to meander around a similar area to it's original formation location. My attention continues to go toward the Bay Of Bengal as the MJO and CCKW activity creating the above systems is modelled to continue East Northeast into the Bay Of Bengal with current timing by week 4 of May, this will bring a heightened period of tropical rainfall & flash flood risks to India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh + Myanmar Sea Surface Temperatures are very supportive for Tropical developments in these areas. Southwest & West Pacific We have Invest 93W, quite large discrepancies between the GFS, GEM and their Ensembles between the systems in the Indian Ocean / Bay Of Bengal and Western Pacific this is due to the handling of the MJO and CCKWs. GEM less keen on the Bat Of Bengal development however its stronger with Invest 93W wheras as shown GFS / GEFS stronger in the Bay Of Bengal but less keen on developing Invest 93W, will be intriguing which model suite is best with accuracy here. Similar to the other areas mentioned in this post the Sea Surface Temperatures very supportive for Tropical developments. I discussed in a previous post the CFS showed the MJO being most prominent from Africa > Indian Ocean > The Maritimes > The West Pacific and we are seeing this occuring already Factoring in the above with high & above average 200mb Velocities frequenting our region of the globe and paired to the MJO feedback I'm yet to discuss, phases 6,7,8,1,2 & 3 ENSO Neutral La Nina El Ninò As shown with a differing on timing and amplitude of MJO progression some discrepancies between model suites however in line to the MJO feedback in this post a clear Rossby Wave Train throughout the Northern Hemisphere. As discussed in my recent posts with a continuation of a -PNA / active PNA this is represented excellently in the overall outputs including most of the areas I've highlighted Recent and upcoming patterns are corresponding nicely to Pacific ENSO and IOBW [warm phase] 500hpa setups during May. La Nina El Ninò West Pacific ENSO Regions Warm - El Ninò IOBW Warm Phase KW 🌤

Significant snowstorm ongoing in Northern Russia, also snowfall (some significant accumulations) in Turkey, along the Georgian & Russian border, part of the Himalayas, West and Southwestern China. This low pressure and below average temperature setup was discussed briefly in my post here And can be noted in the MJO phase 2 composites Multiple significant rainfall & flash flood threat events upcoming across America via MJO feedback consisting of overall below average pressure and CCKW activities from the Pacific and South America in particular through the next 10 days at least - May 23rd. Further excellent representation of MJO and -PNA feedback.

I'll begin by linking to multiple posts as these contain relevant discussions and images. Lots going on hemispherically Firstly we have the development of what to me looks like a Kona Low via continued Rossby Wave Breaking Heading into Mid May [15th approx] we have the continued North Pacific Rossby Wave Train and simultaneously a Rossby Wave Break Event from the North Atlantic across Europe. GFS continues to highlight potential tropical developments in the East Pacific from Mid May. Going with my post here The GEM also seeing this idea of potentially both West and East Pacific tropical developments kicking into gear from Mid May. The majority of these developments can be noted from some of the MJO & MJO during ENSO Neutral charts I posted prior Looking in more detail at ongoing developments its further great representation of teleconnective feedback particularly MJO and PNA. Very good representation of the MJO feedback shown above. Development of above > significantly above average temperatures at 2m and 850hpa from Northwest and North Africa extending through West, Northwest, Central and into Northeast Europe with below > significantly below average temperatures at 2m and 850hpa across East & Southeast Europe and particularly Russia. High pressure shifting Northeastwards and trough development to the Northwest, West and Southwest of the UK which is very representative of the above and the ongoing overall active PNA which continues in its negative phase. Studies show a negative PNA is a common feature associated with La Nina. The movement of the Tropospheric Vortex from Greenland and Canada through the Arctic over to the Russian side is great representation of the positive phases of the NAO and AO which are modelled to move gradually toward Neutral. Putting further detail into the above. There will continue to be heavy shower developments across Wales, Central and North Central England through the remainder of Friday, this corresponds to a pool of higher PWAT values and Theta-E 850hpa temps with increased instability giving thundery potential within this precip. This same area of dynamics will move into South and Southeast Scotland during Early and Mid Day Saturday continuing across Scotland throughout Saturday with widespread thundery showers and storms developing. Also during Saturday a threat of hail - large hail associated with storm developments in Northern and Northeastern Spain This will extend into Southwestern, Western and into Northwest and Northern France Full animation upto Early hours of Sunday. Sunday will be the day which full destabilisation of the atmosphere associated with this event takes place. The hail threat may extend into Southwestern England Much more of a traditional "Spanish plume" appearance to this event which continues to move east / northeastward across Europe from Sunday through Mid Week - Mid May > 15th Widespread thunderstorm developments Thunderstorm activity likely to continue into Monday as the plume continues close to the North Sea Coasts of England and Scotland As the North Atlantic > European Rossby Wave Break Event continues to develop from the start of next week into midweek there are continued trends of significant rainfall events with one in Ireland [possibly Southwestern England] could be flash flooding, the most significant event looks to affect France and it's border with Spain, Spanish Pyrenees, South and Southeast France moving into the Alps and Italy, further snowfalls some significant and a significant flash flood threat for lower elevations. KW ️ Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-spring-has-sprung/?do=findComment&comment=5067900

Good Virga display a short time ago. In depth look at upcoming thunderstorm developments

In depth look at the ongoing thundery pattern. ️🌩🌩

Good display of Virga a short time ago In depth look at the thundery setup developing

I'll begin by linking to multiple posts as these contain relevant discussions and images. Lots going on hemispherically Firstly we have the development of what to me looks like a Kona Low via continued Rossby Wave Breaking Heading into Mid May [15th approx] we have the continued North Pacific Rossby Wave Train and simultaneously a Rossby Wave Break Event from the North Atlantic across Europe. GFS continues to highlight potential tropical developments in the East Pacific from Mid May. Going with my post here The GEM also seeing this idea of potentially both West and East Pacific tropical developments kicking into gear from Mid May. The majority of these developments can be noted from some of the MJO & MJO during ENSO Neutral charts I posted prior Looking in more detail at ongoing developments its further great representation of teleconnective feedback particularly MJO and PNA. Very good representation of the MJO feedback shown above. Development of above > significantly above average temperatures at 2m and 850hpa from Northwest and North Africa extending through West, Northwest, Central and into Northeast Europe with below > significantly below average temperatures at 2m and 850hpa across East & Southeast Europe and particularly Russia. High pressure shifting Northeastwards and trough development to the Northwest, West and Southwest of the UK which is very representative of the above and the ongoing overall active PNA which continues in its negative phase. Studies show a negative PNA is a common feature associated with La Nina. The movement of the Tropospheric Vortex from Greenland and Canada through the Arctic over to the Russian side is great representation of the positive phases of the NAO and AO which are modelled to move gradually toward Neutral. Putting further detail into the above. There will continue to be heavy shower developments across Wales, Central and North Central England through the remainder of Friday, this corresponds to a pool of higher PWAT values and Theta-E 850hpa temps with increased instability giving thundery potential within this precip. This same area of dynamics will move into South and Southeast Scotland during Early and Mid Day Saturday continuing across Scotland throughout Saturday with widespread thundery showers and storms developing. Also during Saturday a threat of hail - large hail associated with storm developments in Northern and Northeastern Spain This will extend into Southwestern, Western and into Northwest and Northern France Full animation upto Early hours of Sunday. Sunday will be the day which full destabilisation of the atmosphere associated with this event takes place. The hail threat may extend into Southwestern England Much more of a traditional "Spanish plume" appearance to this event which continues to move east / northeastward across Europe from Sunday through Mid Week - Mid May > 15th Widespread thunderstorm developments Thunderstorm activity likely to continue into Monday as the plume continues close to the North Sea Coasts of England and Scotland As the North Atlantic > European Rossby Wave Break Event continues to develop from the start of next week into midweek there are continued trends of significant rainfall events with one in Ireland [possibly Southwestern England] could be flash flooding, the most significant event looks to affect France and it's border with Spain, Spanish Pyrenees, South and Southeast France moving into the Alps and Italy, further snowfalls some significant and a significant flash flood threat for lower elevations. KW ️

'This will enhance what I believe is a CCKW - Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave from South Africa. As the MJO moves across South Africa and enhances the CCKW this sees significant rainfall and flash flood risks particularly off the coast of Tanzania & Kenya with places such as Zanzibar and Pemba Island prone.' This MJO + CCKW combination led to the formation of tropical cyclone Hidaya From my quoted post 'Current timing shows the MJO starting to move across the Maritimes during April week 4 into May week 1.' Credit JMA Further MJO and persistent CCKW activities particularly across Melanesia will give opportunity for cyclonic developments potentially tropical in nature > typhoon potential with a setup discussed here Current data suggesting a system possibly close to the Philippines as we head toward Mid May [15th approximately] 8 run trend from GFS

Cold Temperature Records - Low Maximums and Minimums during April. Switzerland France and French territories Estonia Finland Italy Netherlands Poland Russia with over 10 thousand Potentials Spain America and Alaska Snowfall records America and Alaska Cold Temperature Records, Maximums and Minimums America / Caribbean / Hawaii'n / Alaskan Hot Temperature Records, Maximums and Minimums Australian Cold Temperature Records Australian Hot Temperature Records Recent Hot Temperature Records North Korea South Korea Japan

72 Hour Totals 48 hour totals

72 hour totals 48 Hour totals

Quite fascinating setup, we've got an extremely slow moving streamer esque band across Fife Screen_Recording_20240505_020736_Netweather Radar.mp4 During Sunday further fascinating evolutions occuring with a convergence zone which potentially grows into a small cyclonic system, the suite of models are having a tricky time getting the intensity of the associated rainfall with this though this interacts with an area of increasing instability (could be thundery in nature) by Sunday Afternoon across Northern and Northeast areas, I suspect this will undergo topographical enhancing via the mountains a second intensification may occur as this convergence zone extends through the Tay Estuary and crosses Fife. I would be surprised if a rainfall warning isn't required from the North Northeast extending across all of Fife. This event is easy to spot when checking where the highest significant PWAT [Precipitable Water] values exist. GEM takes the highest totals through Fife GFS much further west toward Perthshire. NMM 0.05

Linking to the post above we've seen the natural progression of La Nina sea surface temperatures which began in the ENSO 1 and 2 Regions gradually move westward with a continuation of El Ninò sea surface temperatures across the western ENSO Regions in particular, there are some websites which claim an ENSO Neutral to be with neither El Ninò or La Nina being present however I generally disagree as my view is when we have a La Nina emerging from the East and the natural movement of El Ninò sea temperatures westward this gives both events simultaneously and therefore gives overall ENSO values into Neutral values. NOAA Tropicaltidbits Overall really pleased with the above posts given current and future evolutions a la the teleconnective feedback already shown, I decided to look into ENSO Neutral for recent MJO Progression. Credit JMA Nearing 3 months since my previous in depth post on future ENSO evolution. And again reposting my thoughts from January 'We'll continue seeing patterns which link to El Ninò throughout March and I'd favour potentially the first few weeks or so of April, following that time it's a gradual move into ENSO Neutral with some themes continuing of heading into La Ninà by late spring and particularly Summer 2024.' Very pleased with the above Looking at individual model outputs. CFS ENSO 1&2 Regions Currently showing a Moderate >> Strong Nina in the East over the next few months followed by a weakening / less cool SSTs in Autumn followed by a second intensification of La Nina in Winter. Nino 3 and 3.4 Regions Corresponding with the weakening in the East the natural progression of the initial Moderate >> Strong La Nina conditions moves westward during Autumn heading toward Winter. ENSO 4 Region NMME [8th April data] CANSIPS Some notes I'm making Whilst a Moderate - Strong Nina is suggested overall, a Super Nina cannot be discounted, an important lesson from last year. Whilst a majority of focus & attention will be on the Atlantic for cyclone & hurricane development my attention is drawn immediately toward the West Pacific and possibly the Indian Ocean too for a number of reasons. Cross model agreement showing part of the El Ninò SST heat moving West Northwest toward Melanesia and Southeast Asia CFS has the MJO being most prominently active from Africa progressing across the Indian Ocean > Maritimes and into the West Pacific / Pacific from July through January. Certainly suggestive to me of heightened Monsoon, tropical rainfall and cyclone / typhoon developments. Focusing on the Pacific a bit further, the area of warm Sea Surface Temperatures toward East Asia and Japan is part of the -PDO with a cooling of Sea Surface temperatures along the Alaska, Northwestern and Western America Coastline. Credit Researchgate Credit The role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interactions in driving US temperature predictability WWW.NATURE.COM npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - The role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interactions in driving US temperature predictability Credit Spatiotemporal vertical velocity variation in the western tropical Pacific and its relation to decadal ocean variability | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science | Full Text PROGEARTHPLANETSCI.SPRINGEROPEN.COM Abstract Prior to the cold phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), sea surface water in the western tropical North Pacific is heated. To evaluate the impact of the subsurface water on the... Interesting that the CFS for August is a really great match with the smoothed Tropical Cyclone Frequency from NMME forecast via Tropicaltidbits Hopefully this has been insightful and helpful for everyone and learners / newbies KW Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-spring-has-sprung/?do=findComment&comment=5065394

Linking to the post above we've seen the natural progression of La Nina sea surface temperatures which began in the ENSO 1 and 2 Regions gradually move westward with a continuation of El Ninò sea surface temperatures across the western ENSO Regions in particular, there are some websites which claim an ENSO Neutral to be with neither El Ninò or La Nina being present however I generally disagree as my view is when we have a La Nina emerging from the East and the natural movement of El Ninò sea temperatures westward this gives both events simultaneously and therefore gives overall ENSO values into Neutral values. NOAA Tropicaltidbits Overall really pleased with the above posts given current and future evolutions a la the teleconnective feedback already shown, I decided to look into ENSO Neutral for recent MJO Progression. Credit JMA Nearing 3 months since my previous in depth post on future ENSO evolution. And again reposting my thoughts from January 'We'll continue seeing patterns which link to El Ninò throughout March and I'd favour potentially the first few weeks or so of April, following that time it's a gradual move into ENSO Neutral with some themes continuing of heading into La Ninà by late spring and particularly Summer 2024.' Very pleased with the above Looking at individual model outputs. CFS ENSO 1&2 Regions Currently showing a Moderate >> Strong Nina in the East over the next few months followed by a weakening / less cool SSTs in Autumn followed by a second intensification of La Nina in Winter. Nino 3 and 3.4 Regions Corresponding with the weakening in the East the natural progression of the initial Moderate >> Strong La Nina conditions moves westward during Autumn heading toward Winter. ENSO 4 Region NMME [8th April data] CANSIPS Some notes I'm making Whilst a Moderate - Strong Nina is suggested overall, a Super Nina cannot be discounted, an important lesson from last year. Whilst a majority of focus & attention will be on the Atlantic for cyclone & hurricane development my attention is drawn immediately toward the West Pacific and possibly the Indian Ocean too for a number of reasons. Cross model agreement showing part of the El Ninò SST heat moving West Northwest toward Melanesia and Southeast Asia CFS has the MJO being most prominently active from Africa progressing across the Indian Ocean > Maritimes and into the West Pacific / Pacific from July through January. Certainly suggestive to me of heightened Monsoon, tropical rainfall and cyclone / typhoon developments. Focusing on the Pacific a bit further, the area of warm Sea Surface Temperatures toward East Asia and Japan is part of the -PDO with a cooling of Sea Surface temperatures along the Alaska, Northwestern and Western America Coastline. Credit Researchgate Credit The role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interactions in driving US temperature predictability WWW.NATURE.COM npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - The role of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interactions in driving US temperature predictability Credit Spatiotemporal vertical velocity variation in the western tropical Pacific and its relation to decadal ocean variability | Progress in Earth and Planetary Science | Full Text PROGEARTHPLANETSCI.SPRINGEROPEN.COM Abstract Prior to the cold phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), sea surface water in the western tropical North Pacific is heated. To evaluate the impact of the subsurface water on the... Interesting that the CFS for August is a really great match with the smoothed Tropical Cyclone Frequency from NMME forecast via Tropicaltidbits Hopefully this has been insightful and helpful for everyone and learners / newbies KW

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Thought it would be great to get a dedicated thread for Southern Hemisphere Snowfall akin to those for the Northern Hemisphere 🌨🌨🏔

Excellent representation of typical El Ninò patterns, this is particularly evident in the ongoing and upcoming setup throughout South America. Snow Multiple waves of significant snowfalls across higher elevations of Chile, Argentina and some in Peru. Significantly below average temperatures will cover Chile and Argentina in particular. Significant Rainfall & Significant Flash Flood Risks. Again typical characteristics of El Ninò, ongoing significant rainfall will continue with further events moving between Uruguay and South - Southeast Brazil - Rio Grande Do Sul. Heat - Significant Heat & Potential further drought conditions Overall warm weather covering a large part of Northern South America however the most significant heat events are modelled for Southeast Brazil which will extend across Paraguay. After historic drought, El Niño rains pose new hurdle for Brazil’s farmers DIALOGUE.EARTH Soy producers in country’s south face downpours caused by El Niño, hot on the heels of a damaging three-year La Niña Climate impacts of El Niño Phenomenon in Latin America and the Caribbean | GRID-Arendal WWW.GRIDA.NO El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural phenomenon that has occurred for centuries. Ocean and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific tend to fluctuate between El Niño (warming) and a drop...

Continues to be an interesting evolution with this event, I discussed in detail in the post below As mentioned there were many discrepancies between models on said evolution and indeed its not 100% resolved however as things look currently a few details to update and an overall summary from my POV The main cyclonic Centre is now modelled to develop from Northern Africa (Algeria) into the Balearic Sea wheras prior outputs developed it into the Tyrrhenian as discussed in my post above. So looking at the period of May 1st through May 3rd from a significant rainfall and associated significant flash flood threat POV, Italy and France seeing the majority however the rainfall activity which extends from Southern into more Central and Northern France will progress into the UK with current signal being the most significant accumulations and flash flood threat being focused into Southwestern England extending toward Southeast + Southern Ireland. GFS and some of the finer scale modelling is indicating this threat area might include Central South England into Southern Wales. Cheers, KW

Yep one for @Hawesy it's a European plume which gives a warm East-Southeasterly

Nothing overly surprising given MJO and overall teleconnective feedback as discussed in the above posts . A few points of interest I'm watching closely ATM. A significant rainfall event develops across parts of France into the Spanish border and Italy then a low develops in the Tyrrhenian Sea and heads Northeastwards bringing further heavy snowfall in the Alps with a significant rainfall event and flash flood risk at lower elevations in Italy, possibly Switzerland and again into France during the first days of May. There are numerous discrepancies between models but could be potential for significant rainfall as the low starts to influence the UK from the East & Southeast, along the border of above and below average temperatures is where this rainfall is likely to develop with current timing heading into the 2nd of May. Something to note from the above is we are likely to see the 552 dam air crossing into the UK from the East and Southeast which is a good indicator of warm / hot conditions which is also shown if we use the 850hpa temperatures with +10C moving in from the East and Southeast. European Plume Event I'd class this as. This also is evident with the most significant above average surface and upper level temperatures moving across Northern UK and Ireland. As discussed in the first quotation in this post and from my previous posts of late, with MJO feedback and connecting with passage of above average / higher 200mb Velocity Anomalies still looks like the latter stage of May week 1 could give a window for high pressure developments from the South Southwest ie Spain, Portugal perhaps Africa etc extending toward the UK / Ireland. Really beginning to watch as the MJO feedback comes to the fore which I showed in this post High pressure retrograding into the Atlantic and toward Greenland & Canada typically El Ninò characteristic.

Interesting small cyclonic system in the Atlantic which has been given 10% to obtain tropical characteristics over the next few days After decaying this systems moisture will become part of a Rossby Wave Break Event during this weekend into early next week. Looks like this system spawned from a CCKW from South America With influence of CCKW activities and the MJO itself mentioned in the above post, there will be a significant - possibly major snow event across the Himalayas as a mix of troughing and cut off lows converge by April 28th. Overall a significantly snowy setup for Russia and Asia with accompanying cold > significantly cold temperature anomalies which will extend into parts of the Middle East. This once again coinciding with a move into a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. This CCKW and MJO activity will also keep significant rainfall and significant flash flood risk events ongoing across East and Southeast China, Taiwan and Japan through at least May week 1.