Kirkcaldy Weather

Though the MJO is moving through the Indian Ocean into the Maritimes at a lower amplitude than of late still some very noteworthy developments. A low currently moving through Japan will see moisture inflow registering the highest anomalously wet PWAT values Fueled by a very strong Jet Streak Following on an impressive Rossby Wave Break which connects to the MJO develops across the North Pacific with a cool sequence of cyclonic formation Northwest of Hawaii Ongoing very snowy pattern across Alaska into the Pacific Northwest producing significantly below average temperatures at surface and upper levels with values upto 20C below average with multiple cold air plunges. This Rossby Wave Break Event is transitioning into an ongoing significant flash flood threat which intensifies particularly though not exclusively toward the Gulf Coast States over the next few days. Looks like another Rossby Wave Break Event is likely by next weekend though exact positions of cut off lows and high pressure TBD

Additional China Rainfall stats

"This will see a large portion of Europe extending from Africa experiencing surface and upper level temperatures above - significantly above average I'd expect further temperature records potentially tied and broken." Other noteworthy rainfall, snowfall and cold temperature records recently and during March for the Pakistan stats which I covered in multiple posts over in the global thread.

As this cyclonic system develops and crosses the UK there are a multitude of developing dynamics. Sharp Thermal Gradient. Significant flash flood risk with a significant rainfall event. As this system continues to develop and undergo cyclogenisis as it crosses the UK there will be a sharp thermal gradient occuring on its northern and particularly Northwestern flanks, this combination will aid in the formation of a significant rainfall event with an associated significant flash flood risk, a few discrepancies on precise track between the models however South and Southeast Ireland, West and Northwest Wales, particular focus into Northwest England, and Scotland. As the sharp thermal gradient continues to intensify this will turn the rain to snow particularly across higher routes however mixing at low levels can't be ruled out, I expect main accumulations at this stage to be across the Pennines and Scottish Highlands. These below average temperatures will lead to a cold night on Tuesday with a frost a possibility. Into midweek the PWAT values once again become highly anomalous, wouldn't surprise me if records are broken at upper levels of the atmosphere for moisture. Similar to Kathleen/Olivia this moisture inflow is tropically sourced. We'll return into an above average temperature setup with this systems influence. All fitting in ideally with expectations this is an excellent teleconnective configuration for significantly cold air to be entreched across the Arctic I expect helping the Arctic Ice too @Midlands Ice Age Heading toward Mid April I'm watching for a plunge of Arctic air as troughing develops to the North of the UK and moves toward Scandinavia and Europe bringing a flow from the Northwest and North. Thanks for Reading. KW Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5055864

As this cyclonic system develops and crosses the UK there are a multitude of developing dynamics. Sharp Thermal Gradient. Significant flash flood risk with a significant rainfall event. As this system continues to develop and undergo cyclogenisis as it crosses the UK there will be a sharp thermal gradient occuring on its northern and particularly Northwestern flanks, this combination will aid in the formation of a significant rainfall event with an associated significant flash flood risk, a few discrepancies on precise track between the models however South and Southeast Ireland, West and Northwest Wales, particular focus into Northwest England, and Scotland. As the sharp thermal gradient continues to intensify this will turn the rain to snow particularly across higher routes however mixing at low levels can't be ruled out, I expect main accumulations at this stage to be across the Pennines and Scottish Highlands. These below average temperatures will lead to a cold night on Tuesday with a frost a possibility. Into midweek the PWAT values once again become highly anomalous, wouldn't surprise me if records are broken at upper levels of the atmosphere for moisture. Similar to Kathleen/Olivia this moisture inflow is tropically sourced. We'll return into an above average temperature setup with this systems influence. All fitting in ideally with expectations this is an excellent teleconnective configuration for significantly cold air to be entreched across the Arctic I expect helping the Arctic Ice too @Midlands Ice Age Heading toward Mid April I'm watching for a plunge of Arctic air as troughing develops to the North of the UK and moves toward Scandinavia and Europe bringing a flow from the Northwest and North. Thanks for Reading. KW

Other noteworthy snow stats & events

This has occured via an extended severe weather outbreak, thoughts to all affected This cut off low producing noteworthy low temperatures and rain

Other rainfall / dry records of late.

Leading onto the above. Signals here for a multitude of potential severe weather impacts with this cyclonic system during Friday and Saturday in particular, though I already discussed the flash flood threat I wanted to show that there is a tropical moisture inflow into this cyclone which can be tracked back into the Ninò style Jet with moisture inflow really from the Pacific and Mexico. This moisture inflow starts downstream into the severe weather and ongoing snowstorm in America which leads into an increasingly strengthening Jet Streak helping our cyclone to undergo deep cyclogenisis. As the cyclogenisis occurs I'd expect wind warnings to be required heading into Saturday with potential for damaging gusts with current signals trending toward Ireland seeing the highest gusts initially with this area transferring possibly across the Irish Sea and impacting Northwest England and Scotland with high gusts continuing into Sunday in the North. Beauty of a Rossby Wave Break Event as discussed prior this weekend in America. There is likely to be further cyclonic development during the beginning of next week with a dip in the upper level dynamics however discrepancies on the track with some indicating the Bay of Biscay wheras others pull it into this weekends cyclonic developments with movements toward the UK.

Starting with the above, with a Lowering Isotherm there will be multiple areas of snow particularly across Scotland mostly for higher elevations though mixing occuring at lower levels will be likely, with the first seeing the ongoing rain gradually becoming increasingly wintry > snowy then as a stronger area of frontal precip comes in during April 4th and 5th with the lowest Isotherm values a snow event occurs as this moves through Scotland. During Friday and Saturday we get the first great example of the above as a cyclone begins to deepen west of Ireland with increasing high pressure across Europe to the South Southeast of the UK this gives a plume style setup with trends this will draw up highly anomalous PWAT values which indicates very heavy rainfall and a resulting flash flood risk. This will see a large portion of Europe extending from Africa experiencing surface and upper level temperatures above - significantly above average I'd expect further temperature records potentially tied and broken. Looking at the setup across the Northern Hemisphere by this weekend some of the most noteworthy events Developing Rossby Wave Break Event across America [see global thread for more info] As discussed above plume setup builds across Europe The -NAO event connects into the + Arctic Oscillation With the teleconnective pairing of the move from a strong -NAO toward positive NAO values with recent stronger +AO values we'll see a focus of troughing and cyclonic developments more centering effects for Northwest and Northern UK and Ireland with a building of higher pressure having greater impacts toward southernmost UK and Europe. This will also pair with the MJO progressing from our region of the globe ie Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa into the Indian Ocean although at a lower amplitude again feedback shows cyclonic systems trend more Northwest and Northern trackways and I would suggest further plume opportunities are plausible given feedback signal of high pressure to our East and Northeast with similar trough placements to our west and southwest most likely. Cheers. KW ️ Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5054233

Starting with the above, with a Lowering Isotherm there will be multiple areas of snow particularly across Scotland mostly for higher elevations though mixing occuring at lower levels will be likely, with the first seeing the ongoing rain gradually becoming increasingly wintry > snowy then as a stronger area of frontal precip comes in during April 4th and 5th with the lowest Isotherm values a snow event occurs as this moves through Scotland. During Friday and Saturday we get the first great example of the above as a cyclone begins to deepen west of Ireland with increasing high pressure across Europe to the South Southeast of the UK this gives a plume style setup with trends this will draw up highly anomalous PWAT values which indicates very heavy rainfall and a resulting flash flood risk. This will see a large portion of Europe extending from Africa experiencing surface and upper level temperatures above - significantly above average I'd expect further temperature records potentially tied and broken. Looking at the setup across the Northern Hemisphere by this weekend some of the most noteworthy events Developing Rossby Wave Break Event across America [see global thread for more info] As discussed above plume setup builds across Europe The -NAO event connects into the + Arctic Oscillation With the teleconnective pairing of the move from a strong -NAO toward positive NAO values with recent stronger +AO values we'll see a focus of troughing and cyclonic developments more centering effects for Northwest and Northern UK and Ireland with a building of higher pressure having greater impacts toward southernmost UK and Europe. This will also pair with the MJO progressing from our region of the globe ie Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa into the Indian Ocean although at a lower amplitude again feedback shows cyclonic systems trend more Northwest and Northern trackways and I would suggest further plume opportunities are plausible given feedback signal of high pressure to our East and Northeast with similar trough placements to our west and southwest most likely. Cheers. KW ️

Active setups emerging in America and Europe with feedback of recent MJO progression and IMO very likely involving feedback of the Super El Ninò peak temperatures. Starting in Europe we are seeing a highly above average temperature setup with records being broken and the first 30C recordings of the year across multiple days, again its not too surprising IMO given MJO and El Ninò feedback. This will be the fuel for a potential storm system with anomalously high PWAT bringing a potentially significant wintry precip event along the Northwestern and Northern flanks. America As the cut off low energy connects to trough developments from Canada which is part of ongoing MJO feedback paired with the fuel from the aforementioned high across East and Southeast America this will give a setup conducive for a storm into Northeast States from now through April week 1. This is likely to become a snowy system on its Northwest and Northern flanks potentially significant totals. The next potentially significant flash flood threat will also arrive with this system particularly north central states into Northeast states dependant on storm intensity and track with some discrepancies within modelling. As the next cyclonic system moves from the Pacific Northwest into the West Coast this transitions into a Rossby Wave Break Event in roughly a weeks time April 6th - 7th with cut off lows on each American Coast and the ridging & blocking across Central America through Canada which will likely connect to the Greenland High. This setup also gives a below average - significant in areas across the west and east with above average - significant central and Canada

As the Greenland High builds this will interact with an elongating Tropospheric Vortex from Alaska across a large part of the Arctic resulting in a significantly cold setup with 850hpa temperatures of at least -16 with indication of -18s too across Iceland with significantly below average temperatures at Surface and upper levels.

7.6C and 131.8MM please

Recapping this weeks events. Scotland snow As the cyclone developed across Northwestern France there is damage indicative of a tornado As the system moved across Southwest England into Wales it produced a snow event as discussed. Wind gusts from the main cyclone into Thursday reached 99kmh into the South Coast of England with an 89kmh value as the winds moved across Southeastern England. Looks like the strong Jet Streak has helped to produce what appears as a strong waterspout in Portugal No surprises seeing a Red warning covering Avalanche danger in the Alps of Switzerland and Spanish alpine regions with the plethora of huge snowfalls including the current event which will give totals upto and above 100CMs. Further snow events are likely during April week 1 and potentially afterward. "The Southern Alps also experienced a new significant snow episode. This is also the 4th major snow episode in the space of five weeks . 50 centimeters of snow fell in the Isola 2000 resort . Since February 24, the accumulation of new snow has reached 2.76 meters at 1860 m altitude." @Midlands Ice Age

Stunning Looking like the pressure will be at -> near record strength into the first days of April across Greenland an absolute beauty of a negative NAO overall and values now look to exceed those of January.

Significant flash flood threat will develop across East and Southeast China as energies connecting to the MJO become slow moving troughing over this area likely Kelvin Wave - CCKW activities involved. This will extend into Taiwan and Japan. With ongoing feedback of recent MJO progression the next cold air outbreaks are beginning with a classic representation of a Ridge-Trough-Ridge-Trough setup, these cold air outbreaks are developing across Asia and Russia with further significant snowfalls and significantly below average temperatures in areas affected during the last month roughly > Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Krgyzstan, North India, Nepal, Tibet, Southeast Kazakhstan. Also snow events along the Russia & Georgian border and Turkey. Great representation of the MJO feedback as a high builds across East and Southeast USA and the cut off low into the Southwest as discussed previously.