Kirkcaldy Weather

Some significant systems developing into America this week and beyond. From Thursday 21st March through next Tuesday approx, a cut off low will develop across the Gulf States with an initial significant flash flood risk in Texas which then moves across the Gulf States ie Louisianna and Florida, as this cut off low connects at least for a time to the troughing in Canada and into the Great Lakes the significant flash flood risk will move up the East Coast with the Carolinas currently looking a higher risk area for flooding though a generalised threat across all of the Eastern coastal States into the Canadian Maritimes. This flash flood risk will also move into the Bahamas. During Friday and into the Weekend a new system will move into the west coast with a new round of significant snowfall for the Sierras and the West > Northwestern States having a generally snowy & cold setup. These patterns are feedback from recent MJO phases as discussed in various posts plus the MJO moving across the Pacific and this part of the globe in general during this timeframe. As this system progresses East Northeastwards there is potential for a number of possible significant and severe weather events with a snowstorm on the northern and Northwestern flanks [Northern States] as it utilises the significant cold upper and surface level temperatures which are pulled in from Canada, and a significant flash flood risk paired to a potential severe weather outbreak on the Southern and Southeastern flanks across the heart of America progressing East and Northeast. Current timing is approximately March 24th through 29th.

^ Megan currently making landfall close to the most Eastern of the Pellew Islands she will make landfall on the mainland in the early hours of Monday around the Robinson River with severe flash flooding rains stretching from the Pellew Islands across the Northern Territory and Northwest > Northeast Queensland, she will also bring severe damaging winds again particularly close to the centre around the Pellew Islands into the Robinson River and still some significant winds as she moves westwards inland before gradually weakening although the severe rains will extend well inland and westwards. There will also be significant flash flood potential from heavy rains / storms around the East Southeast Coastline including a strong front from a system moving into New Zealand. The outer bands of Tropical Storm 18S will move into the Northwestern coastline of Western Australia in the next few days.

Models are really having a difficult time with this system which has been named Megan. Still no real consistency on landfall timing and locale within the modelling with some having landfall around the Pellew Islands Tomorrow whereas a more easterly landfall is favoured by some including the GEM even into Tuesday. As covered in recent posts with many cut off lows plus a main Tropospheric Vortex lobe moving into the Kara Sea and Russia this is an excellent pattern for multiple significant snowfall events and overall large snowfall coverage across parts of the Middle East, large swathes of Asia and Russia + Siberia during the next few weeks.

With feedback of recent MJO progression particularly February phases 2 and 3 there are some noteworth cold air outbreaks. Canada and East Southeast America South America, there will also be significant snowfalls across Chile and some in Argentina and Peru. Another significant below average anomaly likely during March 18th - 23rd Approx as a slow moving cut off low moves across India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand bringing heavy rains.

Adding some more detail to the above post, further excellent representation of MJO feedback With further feedback including that of phases 4 and 5 we'll see a number of noteworthy developments. As discussed in the above post the next movement of the Tropospheric Vortex during the next 7 days approximately sees the TPV begin to split with the main lobe heading across the Kara Sea into Russia with secondary lobe(s) moving into Canada and the Canadian Maritimes. The next cyclone to approach Ireland and the UK will transition into a cut off low which heads through Spain and into Northwest and Northern Africa, likely rossby wave breaking involved. Also note the cut off high as mentioned previously and the trend into a trough dominating pattern beginning from Canada toward the Great Lakes and Northeast America. Per the above there will be opportunity for the Atlantic - Azores High to ridge across more southern parts of the UK and Ireland. Another main aspect of phases 4 through 5 is the building of a strong Pacific > Alaska > Arctic Ridge and Blocking regime which extends into Greenland likely more of a -AO during this sequence.

Fair play to you @WeatherArc you'd given credence to a significant tornado being likely My favourite shots I've seen thus far of the significant tornado near Alta Vista Nice structure on a small solo cell in Texas yesterday Significant updrafts on those storms yesterday meaning mega hail, helmets required

Flash flood threat particulary given already sodden ground for Ireland, Northwest England and Scotland as a cyclonic system develops along the boundary between cooler and milder airmasses. Tomorrow through Saturday. With colder air undercutting from the Northwest this will turn the rain to snow for the Scottish Highlands. As this colder airmass descends into Ireland and the UK this will bring Lowering temperatures including frost especially further north and northwest. Overnight Fri > Saturday As an area of increasing instability moves into Central Southern and Southeast England on Friday Afternoon this could generate thundery showers. There are multiple big snowfalls with one in Iceland and as the system from Ireland and the UK moves along the MJO feedback pathway per my previous post, this brings a snowfall event across Scandinavia. Also linking to my prior post.

Busy setup I'll begin on the initial cut off low development. Further West as this process gets underway there are a few big weather events with one being a high fire threat as the cut off low draws up drier air combined with higher winds. This low will also produce a snow event across Colorado [significant accumulations here] also high amounts spreading into Utah, Arizona and New Mexico. Further East Northeast and Southeast this low will draw up high PWAT values bringing the next significant flash flood threats as discussed here This will be split into two distinct zones. Southern risk. Many states involved but highest totals across Arkansas, Louisianna, Mississippi ,Tennessee into Texas. Northern Risk. Looks to begin across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois with this expanding as it moves toward the Great Lakes with Wisconsin and particularly Michigan seeing higher totals, this moves into areas close to Lake Eerie. Trends for a new significant flash flood risk continuing across Texas from Sunday - Monday this also moves into Louisianna. Significant flash flood event becoming increasingly likely from March 18th - 23rd Approx as a cut off low develops and moves across parts of the Middle East accompanied by a strong Jet Streak which looks to increase precip intensity. Main severe risk currently by March 19th & 20th close by the Iraq, Turkey and Iran border.

Overall very happy with the above post. Starting with the modelled movement of the Tropospheric Vortex we can watch as it moves into a position between the Greenland and Kara seas generally over the next week or so. Very happy with the overall timing as this storm system merges with the Atlantic troughing which feeds into the Tropospheric Vortex as discussed prior. This pattern of cyclonic systems running to the North Northwest of the UK and Ireland is feedback from recent MJO progression particularly February phases 1 through 2 with good representation including the Tropospheric Vortex positioning. Pairing with feedback of the Super El Ninò we can see this is supportive of a warmer pattern including the development of high pressure from Africa which extends into Europe again bringing increased temperatures at surface and 850hpa levels. Linking this to the feedback of phases 2 through 3 during February and March again nice representation here for an above average temperature setup. Further nice temperature representation particularly in Australia, South America and USA + Canada. We're really looking at the feedback of the above really coming to the fore in particular from Mid March - 15th which becomes most noteable to begin with across Canada as the persistent blocking patterns which have - are a common El Ninò characteristic begin to transition as troughing begins to form into Canada. From the 15th there are a couple of major developments as discussed above. The Canadian Blocking starts to transition more into that of a trough dominated pattern. The increasingly strengthening high develops from Africa into Europe. As the trough developments begin over Canada this will force the blocking to weaken overall at this stage with signs of the cut off high developments I spoke of currently looking likely somewhere between Greenland and Canada with Baffin Bay a reasonable shout. The feedback as we begin to move at a continuous high amplitude across the Maritimes see my post here for further info This feedback is already becoming noticeable within the models with phase 4 in March having tendency of high pressure building in the Atlantic possibly extending toward the Canadian Maritimes with scope for ridging up into Greenland and a potentially stormy setup with troughing around the UK. Thanks for reading. KW

Though the main part of the MJO has began crossing the Maritimes there will still be enough connecting energy within the Indian Ocean likely via Kelvin Wave[s] activity which will generate a cyclone (possibly tropical) in the Mozambique chanel, this will move into Mozambique in the next few days bringing significant rains and high flash flood risk before it recurves back into the Indian Ocean. *Since typing this post this system has been given tropical storm classification with the name Filipo. No real surprise seeing such an active pattern particularly across the Eastern portion of the Indian Ocean given the higher amplitude passage of the MJO. This will generate further cyclones again these are likely to be tropical in nature with one close to the Northwestern Coast of Australia and at least one other which moves into the Arafura Sea and potentially sits in the waters with regions between Queensland and the Northern Territory. Ahead of these cyclonic developments we have an ongoing significant rainfall event in Western Australia. This will move around coastal Southern Australia with some signals for a renewal of intensity as it moves up the Southeast and East coastal regions perhaps Sydney at risk. With the MJO continuing to move over the Maritimes at a high amplitude this will enhance the tropical convection bringing high rainfall amounts across parts of Southeast Asia and Melanesia.

@Midlands Ice Age @Aleman Spanish Alpine Region

Some records from this weeks patterns which I've covered in extensive detail. Significant record this as it is an ALL TIME snowfall record ... very impressive for March

Some records from this weeks patterns. Significant record this one as it is an ALL TIME snowfall record very impressive to achieve in March

With ongoing feedback of recent MJO progression as discussed prior this leads into another significant cold air outbreak which descends from Russia through Kazakhstan and feeds into areas already dealing with prior outbreaks in Asia and the Middle East. With multiple troughs in this setup this will produce multiple significant snow events with one beginning in Turkey and many events in the same regions which have already recieved huge snows very recently ie Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North India, Nepal, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Krgyzstan, with a particularly big event likely by the 13th of March. Besides the significant flash flood risk which I discussed previously there are a few other significant synoptics in America & Canada. One system will deliver significant snow into the Pacific Northwest some further accumulations down the west coast toward the Sierras but certainly nothing akin to the past week -> 10 days. This system could also bring some flash flooding at lower elevations. The system bringing the significant flash flood threat across Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee etc will have significant snowfall on the northern and Northwestern flank across Eastern Canada and North Northeastern America. New Brunswick doing great again from this system too. The system across the Pacific Northwest will become a cut off low into Southwestern America during the remainder of March week 2. Signals emerging the next possible significant flash flood threat will emerge in roughly a weeks time across the Gulf States

Huge snowmaking system running across New Brunswick, Newfoundland and a bit in Nova Scotia.

Huge snowmaking system running across New Brunswick, Newfoundland and a bit in Nova Scotia. Next significant risks of flash flooding will also be prominent as we switch into a +PNA with multiple systems tracking across the East and Northeast portions of America - East Southeast Canadain Maritimes. The 1st system will give widespread significant rains all the way from Florida & The Bahamas up the East Coast with a trend for highest rates between New Hampshire, Massachusetts > Nova Scotia. The next system is further teleconnective feedback particularly the MJO as can be noted in my post on February 27th. Similarities to previous weeks as a new High descends from Canada / the Pacific Northwest this gives a new significant cold air outbreak which links to recent MJO progression. This system will bring new flash flood risks from more central states progressing East and Northeast with a trend ATM for a heightened risk between Alabama Georgia and Tennessee somewhere like Atlanta seems a higher risk area currently during Saturday.

Part of this cold outbreak has moved across East Asia with cold records broken thus far Looks like another significant cold anomaly from the same episode will cross by March 9th - 10th With somewhat of a similar pattern to weeks prior with cyclonic centres - cut off low developments being prominent toward the Alps this has produced mega snowfalls.

Leading on from the Autumn + Winter thread. Note some of these initial events began in the crossover period from Winter - Spring. Part of this cold outbreak has moved across East Asia breaking records thus far Another significant cold anomaly part of the same episode will cross by March 9th > 10th With similar patterns to prior weeks seeing further cyclonic centres and cut off low development this has produced several huge snow events over Alpine regions.

Starting at this point looking into the dynamics at play, as the Atlantic High moves eastward into Spain this will connect to the high developments to our East - Northeast from the south Southwest which does give a plume style pattern though brief. For the 2nd part of dynamics leading to the strengthening Blocking this comes thanks to the recent impressive strongly -PNA which was the strongest negative phase we've had all winter. As the -PNA high energy moves into the block to our Northeast there are indicators this may become at / record intensity of hpa for this timeframe with blacks and purples which are particularly useful spotting these. Leading on from my post here "Following on from this I'm seeing a trend for a possible transition into yet another of the precursor setups for further stratospheric warming. Current timing looks to be the very last days of February into March week 1.'' Very happy with those estimates This gives a boost to the stratospheric warming which is ongoing with feedback of this setup into a strong warming event during March week 2. So looking in some detail at some of the evolutions from now through the first half of March. We've got some wave break action which causes an upper level cold pool to move roughly northwestward from Europe to the North Sea As the High begins to retrograde this sends its accompanying wave break low / upper level cold pool northwestward whilst our cut off UK - Ireland trough also creates further cut off low developments into Italy. As I've been covering in my recent posts my main interest with regard to opportunities of below average conditions from the Northeast and East has remained focused from week 2 of March. With the Scandinavian Block continuing its retrograding movement west northwestward to Greenland blocking this will open the door to exactly the above. With a deep Atlantic trough and a Southerly tracking Jet Streak this will see plenty of colder than average temperatures at surface and upper levels (some significant) tracking across Southern Europe and parts of Northern Africa, those who follow my posts may remember various times during winter which produced flash flood risks across Portugal, Spain and progression further east... this is another prime showcase. Where the 500hpa setups will evolve to in a weeks time is perfect to where I'd expect to be given all teleconnective feedback which includes the prior stratospheric warming(s) feedback Following onto my post above. This is an impressive MJO cycle with a strengthening amplitude from the Indian Ocean which looks to maintain amplification as it crosses the Maritimes and heads into the Pacific. Having discussed upto phase 2 we are beginning to have feedback of phase 3 heading from March week 2 > 3 with the storm track in America gradually shifting northward and the trends into cut off blocking with troughs either side and possibly stormy conditions. Absolutely gorgeous. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5045052

Starting at this point looking into the dynamics at play, as the Atlantic High moves eastward into Spain this will connect to the high developments to our East - Northeast from the south Southwest which does give a plume style pattern though brief. For the 2nd part of dynamics leading to the strengthening Blocking this comes thanks to the recent impressive strongly -PNA which was the strongest negative phase we've had all winter. As the -PNA high energy moves into the block to our Northeast there are indicators this may become at / record intensity of hpa for this timeframe with blacks and purples which are particularly useful spotting these. Leading on from my post here "Following on from this I'm seeing a trend for a possible transition into yet another of the precursor setups for further stratospheric warming. Current timing looks to be the very last days of February into March week 1.'' Very happy with those estimates This gives a boost to the stratospheric warming which is ongoing with feedback of this setup into a strong warming event during March week 2. So looking in some detail at some of the evolutions from now through the first half of March. We've got some wave break action which causes an upper level cold pool to move roughly northwestward from Europe to the North Sea As the High begins to retrograde this sends its accompanying wave break low / upper level cold pool northwestward whilst our cut off UK - Ireland trough also creates further cut off low developments into Italy. As I've been covering in my recent posts my main interest with regard to opportunities of below average conditions from the Northeast and East has remained focused from week 2 of March. With the Scandinavian Block continuing its retrograding movement west northwestward to Greenland blocking this will open the door to exactly the above. With a deep Atlantic trough and a Southerly tracking Jet Streak this will see plenty of colder than average temperatures at surface and upper levels (some significant) tracking across Southern Europe and parts of Northern Africa, those who follow my posts may remember various times during winter which produced flash flood risks across Portugal, Spain and progression further east... this is another prime showcase. Where the 500hpa setups will evolve to in a weeks time is perfect to where I'd expect to be given all teleconnective feedback which includes the prior stratospheric warming(s) feedback Following onto my post above. This is an impressive MJO cycle with a strengthening amplitude from the Indian Ocean which looks to maintain amplification as it crosses the Maritimes and heads into the Pacific. Having discussed upto phase 2 we are beginning to have feedback of phase 3 heading from March week 2 > 3 with the storm track in America gradually shifting northward and the trends into cut off blocking with troughs either side and possibly stormy conditions. Absolutely gorgeous.