dragan
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Posts posted by dragan
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54 minutes ago, Blitzen said:
A'noon.
Well after about 13hrs of non-stop snow, I think I can call it at 4" for here! Weird doesn't cover it really. I suppose there is a perfectly logical meteorological explanation though!
A bit brighter today with the sun trying to peep through now and again.
1.9c/0.9c/970/W/10mph.
there is a simple explanation of why 13 hours of snow only produced 4 inches (assuming the snow was fairly heavy)
The milder it is the more water snowflakes hold, however the colder it is, the less water and more air they have.
So a mildish heavy scottish snowfall (0c 1c) would not accumulate as much as say a lighter -10c snowfall.
The water compresss it more, and also as it’s not overly cold will melt a bit. As opposed to a very ‘dry’ fluffy snowflake at -10 which piles up easily
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has the wind to pick up with the snow? this has to be the most pathetic storm i’ve been in.
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plume of warm and drier air via the ECM, a welcome break for those waterlogged
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so latest gfs shows a very potently cold and snowy 4/5 day spell , after that, heights diminish to the north west, which allows the more common south westerly regime to kick in.
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Although there is a lot of divergence in the models, it seems however, around the 18/19th there is more and more agreement for us to be in a north easterly flow, with high pressure to varying degress to the northwest , and a low over scandanavia somewhere.
Although this is far out, the similarities are quite stark, i mean, how close are we to saying, there is a ‘more than likely chance this is happening’
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The trend seems to be for a rise in temperatures and somewhat drier weather from day 5/6 onwards.
Nothing overly mild yet on the horizon, indeed temps perhaps a touch above average would be a better term to use perhaps....?
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1 minute ago, Howie said:
I thought this is what was helping us!? So confused
it’s the opposite, hence why the models are showing a much more typical UK winter setup
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decent consistency from the last few runs via the gfs.
Basically a marked rise in temps, winds veering south westerly from day 8ish onwards.
I don’t think it would be overly mild due to the strength of wind, but the longer the flow lasts, the milder it would get.
Eastern areas seeing the best of dry weather, although showers or organised spells of rain couldn’t be rules out.
Moray firth area could very well see some of the higher temps with this setup.
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gfs is fairly consistent in ending this cold (ish) snap past day 9ish, shown up on a few runs.
As per usual, south and west would feel milder air first, with northern and eastern seas clinging on to the cold air longest.
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indeed i think the ‘cold’ interest in next weeks is done, it will be slightly colder than average, with a bit of wintryness.
It seems day 9ish onward is where any deep cold COULD lie, ecm makes for interesting viewing if it’s cold you want in the latter stages.
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2 hours ago, 101_North said:
Cracking morning sledging with the kids! Brilliant fun
oooh, where do you take them?
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The whacky curvy system over fife just now, will that’s effect edinburgh later?
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Latest gfs shows as of the 4th Jan a new pattern with South Westerly winds taking over until the end of the run.
Not overly mild, but the South West and South coast would see temps nudging into double figures.
Further North, the temps fall away as you would imagine
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1 minute ago, Windysun1 said:
Bit off topic but what is the greatest snow depth recorded in UK after a snowstorm or roughly in a 24hr period? Cheers.
i believe it was very deep in places
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Happy with outputs so far from today, it looks like a cool down period followed by eventually a wetter slightly milder era.
Certainly NO ‘classic cold spell’ unfortunately.
However, the charts could revert to a colder output, conversely, they could also bring in milder conditions too.
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2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
The last two posts totally contra diff each other. No wonder people find this place frustrating sometimes.
Maybe a second opinion from somebody else about the ICON 12z?
or why not have a look at the models yourself and make your own opinion?
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please don’t stab the massager, but......would i be right in saying past +200 it’s a very dry run?
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Just now, Kent Clipper said:
It's mid winter meaning there is no solar input to aid convection over land. Coastal areas will be most prone and inland areas too when troughs and other disturbances from. (Such mesoscale features normally only show up within 48 hours). I wouldn't be too concerned.
If it was mid summer under the sane setup inland would be a rash of thunderstorms with coasts relatively dry.
Yes, much better than how are articulated it
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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:
Still seems bizarre that on models like GFS we get almost zero precip considering the low is slap bang over us
i wonder if it’s BDBM , so pressure is so low it won’t allow precip to form...
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12 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:
Wasn’t going to post today until I saw this. Not sure whether you’ve been on the sauce this afternoon but I think you’re losing perspective about what a flat pattern actually looks like.
Flat:
Not flat:
We’re in a great position going forward, especially with the SSW potential as well. Anyway, Merry Christmas everyone!
He is saying FLATTER not flat.
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1 minute ago, Reversal said:
Compared to the output over the last few days? Definitely flatter compared to what had been consistent recent output, which was what I said. Bit nevermind, objective opinion clearly not welcome.
I think it’s undeniable that the profile is flatter, it’s a fact.
Not saying it won’t get colder, but your right, it’s certainly flatter.
All part of a great discussion
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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Two consecutive posts saying two different things.
No wonder folk get confused.
They both have good and similar points however
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Incredible consistency from the GFS, we are odds on a for a period (possibly sustained) of temps a bit below average.
Upper temps low enough for snow on high ground, and perhaps even a bit of sleet <100m asl
This pattern looks locked in for some time.
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ECM bringing temps to around average for the time of year, up to 168
Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
indeed, and potentially for the east next weekend, there could be an absolute dumping.....