dragan
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Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards
dragan replied to LomondSnowstorm's topic in Regional
indeed, and potentially for the east next weekend, there could be an absolute dumping..... -
Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards
dragan replied to LomondSnowstorm's topic in Regional
there is a simple explanation of why 13 hours of snow only produced 4 inches (assuming the snow was fairly heavy) The milder it is the more water snowflakes hold, however the colder it is, the less water and more air they have. So a mildish heavy scottish snowfall (0c 1c) would not accumulate as much as say a lighter -10c snowfall. The water compresss it more, and also as it’s not overly cold will melt a bit. As opposed to a very ‘dry’ fluffy snowflake at -10 which piles up easily -
Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards
dragan replied to LomondSnowstorm's topic in Regional
has the wind to pick up with the snow? this has to be the most pathetic storm i’ve been in. -
Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
so latest gfs shows a very potently cold and snowy 4/5 day spell , after that, heights diminish to the north west, which allows the more common south westerly regime to kick in. -
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Although there is a lot of divergence in the models, it seems however, around the 18/19th there is more and more agreement for us to be in a north easterly flow, with high pressure to varying degress to the northwest , and a low over scandanavia somewhere. Although this is far out, the similarities are quite stark, i mean, how close are we to saying, there is a ‘more than likely chance this is happening’ -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
dragan replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The trend seems to be for a rise in temperatures and somewhat drier weather from day 5/6 onwards. Nothing overly mild yet on the horizon, indeed temps perhaps a touch above average would be a better term to use perhaps....? -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
dragan replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
it’s the opposite, hence why the models are showing a much more typical UK winter setup -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
dragan replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
decent consistency from the last few runs via the gfs. Basically a marked rise in temps, winds veering south westerly from day 8ish onwards. I don’t think it would be overly mild due to the strength of wind, but the longer the flow lasts, the milder it would get. Eastern areas seeing the best of dry weather, although showers or organised spells of rain couldn’t be rules out. Moray firth area could very well see some of the higher temps with this setup. -
gfs is fairly consistent in ending this cold (ish) snap past day 9ish, shown up on a few runs. As per usual, south and west would feel milder air first, with northern and eastern seas clinging on to the cold air longest.
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oooh, where do you take them?
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The whacky curvy system over fife just now, will that’s effect edinburgh later?
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
dragan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Latest gfs shows as of the 4th Jan a new pattern with South Westerly winds taking over until the end of the run. Not overly mild, but the South West and South coast would see temps nudging into double figures. Further North, the temps fall away as you would imagine -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
dragan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
i believe it was very deep in places -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
dragan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Happy with outputs so far from today, it looks like a cool down period followed by eventually a wetter slightly milder era. Certainly NO ‘classic cold spell’ unfortunately. However, the charts could revert to a colder output, conversely, they could also bring in milder conditions too. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
dragan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
or why not have a look at the models yourself and make your own opinion? -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
dragan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
please don’t stab the massager, but......would i be right in saying past +200 it’s a very dry run? -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
dragan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, much better than how are articulated it -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
dragan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
i wonder if it’s BDBM , so pressure is so low it won’t allow precip to form... -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
dragan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
He is saying FLATTER not flat. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
dragan replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think it’s undeniable that the profile is flatter, it’s a fact. Not saying it won’t get colder, but your right, it’s certainly flatter. All part of a great discussion -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
dragan replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
They both have good and similar points however -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
dragan replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Incredible consistency from the GFS, we are odds on a for a period (possibly sustained) of temps a bit below average. Upper temps low enough for snow on high ground, and perhaps even a bit of sleet <100m asl This pattern looks locked in for some time. -
Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM bringing temps to around average for the time of year, up to 168