dragan
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Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
dragan replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
i said milder not mild. So let’s agree -
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
dragan replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I said this last week that it looks like turning milder after the cold blip. Some very brilliant posts about what COULD happen if things change, but the fact is, we are turning milder, and there is no cold on the horizon. -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
great post. seems like there is no where we can head but milder south westerlies for the foreseeable, HOPEFULLY things change for the colder sometime after day 8-10 -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
well il be darned, i’m glad i stuck to my own thoughts on it turning milder instead of many peoples ideas and trying to put twists on the charts to provide cold. You can’t polish a turd (joby) Certainly an upward trend in temps for sure -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
interesting thoughts, i think we will see the low pressure system coming in from the west, with some cooler (not cold) and some very mild spells. This i feel will continue all the way through to March, when we will see some colder weather from the east. -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
well it’s certainly warming up on the ecm, if it went further we could have some real warmth for December, which seems the norm these days -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
eh......no it’s not lol -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
seems the trend to put the UK in a cool wettish period is set in stone up until day 10ish, after that who knows..... likely a return to somewhat milder conditions is on the cards, although not that much milder, temps ending up around average -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
classic gfuqhgfpjhing with each other, can only mean one thing, MILDER weather. Ok, it’s not going to get overly mild, but according to the gfs and ecm, after this milder colder blip, we have perhaps a touch below average temps to look forward to -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
so true, it’s either early (2009/2010) or late into march. Just wish we could hit the sweet spot! -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
unusual synoptics......which provide us with usual weather lol, these charts are basically showing average temps up and down the uk. -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ooh, your ‘ard -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
yeh, but the weather is still coming off the atlantic, just as rubbish IF ITS COLD you want -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
bloody good job, i think this is your calling , can you do this more often?? it really highlights the uncertainty -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
can you refresh and check it again please -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
atlantic -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
or eastward to make it even worse, that’s if it’s cold you want, it seems a few people in this darn tootin forum like cold..? -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
it throws out options like this because 85% of our weather is what’s it’s suggesting....so it’s has to be taken seriously, and it’s probably right, i’m almost certain in 14 days time if i stick my head out the window, we will have some sort of westerly airflow.....again, because that’s what usually happens -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
fortunately although i am no where near as experienced as others, i used my common sense and didn’t buy into the cool spell lasting. According to the last few gfs runs we are certainly heading back into milder or to be more accurate ‘average’ territory in terms of temperature. No hint of anything colder as of yet. -
darn tootin cold rain at 118.12m asl in Midlothian
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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
indeed, and this is by far the most likely outcome unfortunately. Would be a nice to have a change but i’m not positive -
Model output discussion - Winter has arrived
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
so so true, according the the latest gfs, we have the usual south westerly airflow to look forward to after the cool spell. This looks like it could really raise temps back up to seemingly normal recent December values, double figures for some. Rainfall would be focused on western areas. -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
gfs, indicate a much cooler period coming up, this followed by a lifting of temps to near or above average with the usual souther westerly pattern -
Model output discussion - into the start of Winter
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
temps still look around average for the next 8-10 days, which given what we’ve had, will feel chilly. -
Model output discussion - Winter approaches
dragan replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
models this morning don’t seem to indicate anything other than average to SLIGHTLY below average temp wise, drier than has been of late.......still haven’t seen a frost yet, i may scrape a 1c or 0c IF skies clear over next 10 days