dragan

thanks for that, i mean it does seem strange the level of non existent -5 or below uppers.

May i be so bold as to ask..... What is the reason people think the -4ish uppers will actually be colder than that (if these charts verify of course) Is it past experience? Genuine question

Quite an odd period coming up according to all the latest models more or less. Despite charts showing very rare charts indeed, the weather at ground level won’t be too extreme. Sleet/snow for higher ground (perhaps 250m plus ? ) And in any clearer periods frosts look highly likely if the wind speed allows.

better things??? i think you could be right about a cool down, this would be from the winds veering more northwesterly, potentially bring temps (especially at night) somewhere close to average in clearer spells. Day time maxima would be around normal, i feel, moderated by the wind

due to the lack of heights north, i mentioned we could be looking at weather from the Atlantic for a decent amount of time (about 10 days ago i said this) Because the heights to the north are not strong enough, this encourages low pressure to move and behave as it does normally for our part of the word, this according to the latest GFS and ECM. This obviously can’t last forever, and i wouldn’t be surprised, looking at the output to see high pressure sit very near to us, creating a cloudy full affair, perhaps 2/3 weeks down the line.

that will be me then, although i was one of the big hitters who suggested we will not see cold this side of xmas. Still nothing has made me change my mind, in fact, i think there is a higher chance of heights into sceuro potentially bringing us a southerly feed.

i certainly said for the foreseeable we are looking at a south westerly flow. As for being a turd polisher, there does looks to be weird things happening in the atlantic with high pressure, of course, that’s the models reading it like that, it could just go back to what we are used to.....for ever

i disagree, i think there is certainly merit in what’s showing beyond the 14th, i’m sure if there was an arctic outbreak on the 15th this place would melt. Anything beyond 10 days is very much a stretch, but not 4 days away, but it makes for a good discussion

i hate average weather myself, BORING!!! Each to their own tho. Cant help but think we are going to see the euro high send warm air up very soon, i hope not tho!

there is almost zero chance of cold weather in the next 10 days, temps especially at night will be a bit above average. I say almost zero chance, unless every forecaster and model are wrong, then really there is no chance

well, i said it last week, so that’s down to 2/3 weeks. Indeed i’m not going to suggest what’s in store 4 weeks down the line, because there is indications of a possible change..........i hope

I got laughed at and beaten last week for suggesting we are heading for atlantic driven weather for the next 3/4 weeks.... Nothing has made me change my mind unfortunately looking at the latest runs.

well.......i’m going to suggest the later stages of this gfs run will turn colder, dragging down much colder air

indeed, i’m not sure you would want what the very end of yesterday’s gfs (i think 0z) was showing. I mean imagine trying to get up Queensway at Tesco penicuik!!

i’m not sure i described as non stop south westerlies.....did i..... Anyway, out until day 10 and i reckon beyond looking at both the ECM and latest gfs , decent consistency in my opinion for us to receive further pulses of weather veering from south easterly to south westerly. Although it’s never going to be overly mild. If heights in Europe rise we could be looking at a full on southerly which would indeed bring us very mild temps. A sort of scandinavian european high combined.

gfs 12z scenario could be a real mild affair, IF heights over Europe rise much more, this is all getting a bit

i know, you can’t take the 06z anywhere naughty

06z is indicating nothing but average (ish) conditions for the entire duration really. Don’t even think we scrape -5 850’s at all! Talk about boring

yeh, very good point i like it. but i’m learning so don’t beat me up. plus it’s the model thread, so i’m discussing what models are showing, and it ain’t cold. despite how basic and dull my take on the models are, it’s still correct i think. but thanks for your input

yeh, my evidence is what the current models are showing lol, coupled with the fact it is also the default setting indeed. If the models were showing cold then yes, i would need to explain past what models are showing, but i don’t need to. I could pick or just about any of the charts and give my evidence. have a look at the last god knows how many runs

eh, based on hundreds (if not thousands) of years of Britain receiving the vast majority of weather from the west/atlantic

worth remembering tho, as we get the vast majority of weather from the west......this would still be the most likely outcome.

yip, because it’s still sending us warm air from yeh south/south west. Hope i’m proved wrong

nothing positive at the moment for cold lol

from the perspective that the million pound computer models are not showing it lol, nor are the humans who get paid to translate the computers are not talking about cold either. Im sure as you say a cold outbreak is possible, but then so is a mild outbreak. By the way, i love cold and want to see it as much as any obsessed maniac on here, i’m not a ‘mildy’