Isolated Frost

I think I got them from earthtools- I'm probably more trustworthy of that timeanddate site tbf, so 05:39 here.

JH, I'll start one tomorrow, same time as last year

Yeah probably, normally CH starts it though.

Somewhere between 17c and 17.5c after corrections?

Bright with some high cloud, 15c and cooling.

Sunrise/sunset times here: Today (13th August) - 05:04 / 21:13 1 month (13th September) - 06:05 / 20:03 2 months (13th October) - 07:06 / 18:46 3 months (13th November) - 07:12 / 16:31 4 months (13th December) - 08:13 / 15:43

I'll definitely look into it, but I'm sure latitude will be much trickier to track, I'll have a go. The problems are, that pre-2007, the whole dynamic was completely different, when it comes to snow area, which is since much higher in winter, and much lower in summer, and similar for ice. This is why it's sometimes hard to get a good reliable feed of data, as much of the data is pre-2007. EC solution has a large swathe of sub 0c upper air- much more than the current extent, and it's likely that we've now seen the furthest extent of warmth on the pole, and it will begin to slowly cool throughout the northern hemisphere. First snowfalls across Baffin, Greenland and Svalbard likely, then move onto Siberia, Alaska and Scandi. Most interesting time of year, the descent into winter...

Bottesford, you know you want to...

Yeah, don't know who instead of though- Bresnan looks good, Broad is like VC, Anderson obvious and Swann obviously a spinner. I'd drop Bairstow and bring in Onions/Tremlett.

I like cold and dark roughly September to January, and maybe a little in Feb, but as soon as the festivities end, winter holidays end, I kind of lose the want of having cold weather, unless it's special (Feb 1-2 2009 etc). As soon as Feb goes on, I often can't wait for warm days, short nights etc. Right now, I'm definitely in an autumn/winter mood- can't wait for the first few ground frosts and waking up in the dark, I know it sounds weird but I love it.

Going to the 1st test today- looks cloudy at the moment and sunny later on, get them in and let Jimmy have a go at them!

I'd love it if people had a read of this and my comments below each part, would really appreciate any feedback, I was really happy with this theory and will definitely test it out. I know it's quite a long read, but anyone with 5-10 minutes spare could read it all, and give any criticism/words on it, that would be great. Think i'll make my own 'snow-only' winter forecast later on, based mostly on this.

I generally like long days and short nights, but when August/September comes, I feel more festive and love long, colder nights. Generally from September to January, as the novelty wears off during January and I don't care much for February/March cold- around then I want the sun back. But definitely between bonfire night and new year's day, I love the long nights, crisp coldness, can go on long walks/bike rides or play football/tennis without sweating/tiring, and the snow just makes the nights more incredible. I also love the unique feeling of walking to and from school when the sun's rising and especially when it's falling, I remember that in Nov/Dec 2010, probably the best 30-odd days of weather I'll ever experience.

Based on my snow-only method that has worked well last few seasons, if Eurasia gets a snowy August/September build-up, expect a cold November- but I think we're leaning more towards a late September buildup and a more 09/10 access to cold (though not the severity, I can only imagine at this stage)... zonal autumn for me, some good, some bad, all dependent on many factors in the next few months, and I'll be keeping an eye out for Eurasian snow cover to make advances and when it does so because that has (since the 07' shift) been exceptional at pinpointing the arrival of cold- albeit with a adjustable lag of between 2.5 and 4 months.

January snow totals, Northern Hemisphere (6 months difference) Eurasia (6 months difference) 2007: 44.87km2 (+41.37km2) 27.09km2 (+26.74km2) 2008: 49.78km2 (+46.76km2) 31.88km2 (+31.58km2) 2009: 47.14km2 (+44.62km2) 29.36km2 (+29.16km2) 2010: 48.27km2 (+45.69km2) 30.07km2 (+29.91km2) 2011: 48.47km2 (+45.89km2) 30.11km2 (+29.94km2) 2012: 46.90km2 (+44.37km2) 30.32km2 (+30.16km2) 2013: 48.64km2 (+46.33km2) 30.78km2 (+30.64km2) I was very pleased with that effort in fact, very similar amounts to the 2007-08, and with a year lag that is pretty promising. I'd rate the last few winters in this order; 2009-10, 2010-11, 2008-09, 2012-13, 2007-08, 2011-12, 2006-07 The best July-Jan eurasia growths have been; 2007-08, 2012-13, 2011-12, 2010-11, 2009-10, 2008-09, 2006-07 The best July-Jan NH growths have been; 2007-08, 2012-13, 2010-11, 2009-10, 2008-09, 2011-12, 2006-07 I'm going to try and make a correlation using composites and data, and will report what I can find on here, but I think the general picture is; sharp growths can spur on a 3-4 year rise in northern blocking, whilst low growths would be expected thereafter- exceptionally low growths (such as 2006-07) may well indicate that the beginning of a new northern blocking cycle is on its way within 3 years... we're looking at a rather high snow total for June... so perhaps 2015 will herald the return of the deep cold?

I'm happy enough with that prediction, I would say it was relatively (RELATIVELY!!) similar to 2008-2009, so I'll have another go at this now.

bang on 16

It has began to absolutely pour it down here.

Would love to be on the coast at say 5-7am NL, will potentially be very stormy and potentially some big waves around. Expecting around 40-60mm throughout most of the region, around 60-80mm in specific/lucky areas.

30-70mm in Washington for the next 12 hours. Should be a fun night- got a cup of tea, an FM save and a James Blake album to keep me company.

Along with Phoneshop, some of the earlier Mock The Week and Mitchell and Webb. Father Ted > everything though! That band is working perfectly at the moment, NW England and W Midlands; looking at a 2am lift off when it comes to precip in the region, 5-6am looks like the strongest stuff. You know that it's game on when there's two shades of purple on the HR-EC- 5am screengrab the same as prior

Ah, the (sad) life...

Yeah, sure, why not- looking at the intensity, thunder should be around, potentially big time Incredible if that comes off, 0500 frame, wowza. Serious precip overnight on the HREC; that would be 40-60mm and 60mm+ in certain areas from 0000 to 1200. And to think it's going to be in the late teens whilst it all happens... and towards the end of next week, we're looking at passing 25c+ again. Incredible persistant warmth this July.

The 5pm and 6pm pics look more positive for western parts of the region.

Not posted much, but when you see this on the HR-EC, you take notice Hi-res screengrab for 7pm tonight, plethora of activity and purples galore. Enjoy!