Isolated Frost

Well the control starts step 1 in 12 days time... this is a really stunning 'start point' to have. P15 takes it to D14, but this not a bad go when it comes to the upper pattern ridging north as the seaboard intensifies and stalls the jet. P19 develops a ridging Azores high, into Scandinavia... which eventually retrogresses into Greenland- and the jet slips below, a real cold pattern beginning D10, and turning very fun from D13 onwards. Unfortunately, these are the only members favouring the 'positive retrogression'. Plenty others have a go at it, but the jet axis turn the upper energy over the block. Interesting nonetheless, and retrogression is the name of the game. Watch Nick Sussex's posts regarding the Eastern Seaboard, these are crucial in situations like this- the retrogressive block only works with a positive East Coast profile, and consequently, knocks the Siberian vortex west. It's all a big jigsaw, and there's plenty to come and be discussed in modelling over the next few weeks.

Cold and cloudy with some sunny outbreaks today, temp atm is -0.2c on 13cms of snow. A year ago today, mild westerlies for most, cooler in the north and east. ...9 days later, a strong easterly flow was examined over most of England and Wales. A very cold spell with ice days for many in the south.

Spring can have two distinct weather types that I love: cold north (north-west and north-east as well) flows with lots of sunshine and wintry showers, convection bubbling up under the strong sun deep warmth from the south, lots of sunshine and the first BBQ days

Fun of the fair. 30 miles between them, but Dover has temperatures above 0c for the next 30 hours, whilst Calais is firmly below 0c for the next 48 hours at the least. North Sea does really change our weather, especially on weeks like these!

Cold, snowy northerlies and north-easterlies. Showery, cool north-westerlies and westerlies. And the odd warm southerly, before May provides us with a heat-fest. Something spring-like. Big sunshine and variability

Just had a check at the the list of entries (1 Jan- not a fan of entries afterwards..) 13/89 went for a sub 3c month, just 14.6% Impressive month. I'd say Rybris Ponce at 3.0c is the best looking bet atm edit- checked December, 35/98 went for sub-3c, 35.7% It leads to you believe that the general consensus will be colder predictions if the start of the month is colder (first 10 days, viewed by the nwp)

Remember the days of waiting for the mystical sub 3c month?

6/10- quite snowy, but frustrating and missing the deep cold... best since 2010 though.

Up to now , I agree- but Feb will be v interesting looking at my composites

Tonight, temperatures should be stable, with an air frost away from the coast, before rising as low cloud moves in tomorrow morning. I'm looking at a very cloudy day tomorrow with a ESE/SE breeze dominating- low and medium cloud dominating with temperatures reaching 2-3c on the coast, and 0-1c further inland on top of snowcover. Tomorrow night, low cloud begins to disappear as the surface wind direction turns to a light W/SW'ly. Temperatures will fall below freezing for all on Thursday morning, with temperatures of -8c and below possible further inland, in valleys on top of deep snowcover (Consett fcast low temp, -7c). Thursday, very cold and clear with some superb landscapes to be seen. Highs of 1-2c on the coast, and an ice day for most of the region, with temps struggling past -3c/-4c inland. It has the potential to be a stunner. Complete sunshine, sharp, long-lasting frost on top of snowcover (deep in parts). Thursday night then looks extremely cold, -7c/-8c by 2200 Thursday on the HR EC- which leads you to believe that we could see -10s and even -12s on Friday morning when the HR EC incorporate it into its 48hr fcast. In summary, a low cloud, dull and cold day tomorrow, with temperatures just above freezing, and some wintry drizzle at times on the coast. Thursday on the other hand looks calm, cold and very sunny. The coldest day of the winter looks likely, after a very sharp frost.

Aston EC meteogram has snow from now until 7am, with temps falling from 0.5c to 0c, staying in that margin all night- that's some really persistent snow that should stick. Go on Villa, always had a soft spot for them. Even though I do like Bradford as an underdog. Oooo Bradford equalise... Benteke and Agbonlahor magic required...

Superb SS! Some icy ditches to come for you... The spot on hi-res EC goes for 48 hours of sub-zero temps, probably 72 if it went on... wrap up! Thursday could be -10c/-3c on top of a foot of snow! Enjoy

Just measured 13cm (5") here. Good spell. Now 0.4c and in for a cold night, next 72 hours should be bitter on top of the snow... 2c high tomorrow, -1c high Thursday and a very sharp frost Friday.

Cold night for NCL, temps struggling to pass 2c in cities tomorrow as cloud at higher levels develop from dawn. Clear signal develops come Thursday, potential for an ice day.

Mostly snow detected on the HR EC output for LDN before midnight, signal increases for sleety mix afterwards into the early morning- the situation for surrounding areas would therefore be for snow for the most part, before turning increasingly wet and sleety into dawn.

Feeling happy with my 3.2c, should go sub-3c by Friday, maybe down to 2.8c/2.7c, before slowly rising after the 26th- a below average winter month.

Loooool! Best areas on higher ground in inland Surrey and Hampshire, perhaps the North and South Downs, are looking at 4-6 inches in my opinion, maybe above if we over-do the modelling.. a significant event, but no where will get a foot this upcoming evening. 2-4 inches the probable outcome for most low-lying areas of Surrey, Hampshire, Berkshire, West Sussex and perhaps West London, 1-2 inches for most in your region bar East Kent, UHI London areas.

Here's a little animation I made of the hi-res EC (which is superb btw) for tonight. First image 1800, then 2100 then 0000- I'm going for snowiest over Surrey, Hampshire and Berkshire/W London, whilst moving slowly NEwards, many pulses in the flow meaning that some intense precip could be maintained for many near the south. Sussex, London and the western parts of Essex and Kent should also do well.

Good luck from oop north!

29th 3pm Great idea btw.

Heavy snow for 2 hours straight now. Sleety in lower areas or near the coast, but very nice , my house further inland will probably have more accu

Loads of snow to come for SE Scotland/Borders, take care!

That was the beast that unleashed 4 inches in less than 2 hours- I remember clearly the most heavy hypnotic snow I'd ever seen, incredible!

Yeah it looks as though it glided across the NE coast into inland Northumberland, as shown by the latest amended EC and radar. We see another band moving into us from the E around midday- will be interesting to see if the wind dir changes. About an inch or so of fresh snow here this morning.

Still snowing moderately here. Anyone remember this? November 26 night-time, between 22:10 and 23:50, I managed 4 inches (10cms) of snowfall! ?