Isolated Frost
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Posts posted by Isolated Frost
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Don't worry, you'll all get some, don't let the 18zs knock you down. Watch the 00z EC, UKMO and GEM output.
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NAE and GFS are awful- wrong from initiation (see my post in far north regional)-
the BBC and METO know what they're doing.. wait for the GFS to track back to the big 3 (GEM, UKMO, EC)
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UKMO at 120
GEM
EC
Retrogressive motion pulls a blocking high to the NE of Iceland- an extensive ridge from the s-tropical high, jet cut off- low pressure to the W/SW of the UK with cold east/south-east winds pulled in
GFS for the same time?
Messed up. Jet too progressive, flat s-tropical high, retrogressive thought about but retracted and the end result is W/SW'lies
No support and a completely illogical solution- you can see what it does
The changes start at 48/72 with the atlantic low- it's an overprogressive/op GFS trait- and will follow the main 3 v soon- the easterly on Sunday will not be as good as the GFS proggs, but the frontal activity should be better on Friday, and prolonged cold is more likely after Monday..
Watch the GFS slowly follow the other two.. tonight the best output is
1. ECMWF/GEM
2. UKMO
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4. GFS
The UKMO is like the less severe, more cautious EC/GEM option, and is the one I would err too, so check the FAXes, and UKMO's especially when you wake up, as well as the EC and GEM suite- don't take notice of the GFS at all until it decides to pick its toys from the pram
BBC forecast also goes against the GFS as close as Friday / Saturday - it's awful atm
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UKMO-GEM-ECM. That's it really, the GFS is awful at some of this now- and even the GEM is battling it imo- latest verification stats show they are close.
A mash-up of the above 3 will do until the GFS realises the atlantic jet isn't going to tint up the GIN corridor and top energy over the blocking heights.
-4c here btw.
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Noted above alza- the GFS won't verify- it pushes the atlantic jet into the blocking high and the blocking high sinks back into the flow, allowing the s-tropical high to extend and be flat instead of ridging- the GFS will catch up in time-
regarding the situation before Sunday, any model could have this- maybe a halfway house?
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GFS completely missing up the pattern at Northern Latitudes- not retrogressing.. the EC/UKMO solution should definitely be favoured and so the GFS past +72 shouldn't really be used that much- the way it's overpowering the atlantic storms is also ridiculous with the EC/GEM/UKMO against it-
take it as a westward shift- but only the 00s and 12s matter
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Lol- snow for the east coast on Sunday, big snow as well.
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18z pushes things even further west as IF has already pointed out, and is keen to bring in convection by Friday evening. By the time te easterly gets going the showers will already be raging in the North Sea, so we should have heavy snow showers from start to finish. (Unlike normally when we have to wait for them to build on the easterly wind)
Yep- heavy snow from the North Sea for the NE from Friday night for at least a day or two. Yum yum- different to the EC and UKMO output- which the westerners will hope to shift west. We win anyway, if it shifts west, longer easterly flow, less marginality and colder uppers, if it shifts east, frontal snow - and then more convection.
I love this place
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When there are westward corrections at +12, you know somethings up. The continental cold is smashing the atlantic, hammering it, obliterating it.
EDIT: Not that I'm saying the GFS is the correct solution- I'm expecting it to be slightly east compared to the point at +36 on the 18z. I expect that it will be a similar run before FI (+120).
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Get well soon Floaty!
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Love this - perfect! Anyone on here a fan of 'Friends' remember the episode with Ross and the sofa - PIVOT!!!!x
Let's hope it actually pivots and doesn't do a Rachel!
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Didn't think you'd all remember the yr.no site! I remember adding their meteo grams in early Dec and forgetting them until the cold came back!
Here's hoping the Scots do a deal with EC when you (hopefully) get independence, meteograms and hi res data from Glasgow ;p
What I like about it is how it actually counts the North Sea convection, unlike the GFS.
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The water equivalent of a given amount of snow is the depth of a layer of water having the same mass and upper area. For example, if the snow covering a given area has a water equivalent of 50 centimeters (20 in), then it will melt into a pool of water 50 centimeters (20 in) deep covering the same area.[39] This is a much more useful measurement to hydrologists than snow depth, as the density of cool freshly fallen snow widely varies. New snow commonly has a density of around 8% of water. This means that 33 centimeters (13 in) of snow melts down to 2.5 centimeters (1 in) of water.[40] Cloud temperatures and physical processes in the cloud affect the shape of individual snow crystals. Highly branched or dendritic crystals tend to have more space between the arms of ice that form the snowflake and this snow will therefore have a lower density, often referred to as "dry" snow. Conditions that create columnar or plate-like crystals will have much less air space within the crystal and will therefore be denser and feel "wetter".[41]
8%, and it's most likely much higher, probably closer to 15-20%, so based on the EC predictions, looking at 12-18cm where you are BT.
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19cm according to the ECM.
Bear in mind you're looking at the higher bands here- could well be less. Also, the rule may well be 1mm=1cm, but this is not always true, especially with the potential wet snow, with a high water content. I've not a clue whether it benefits you or not- but it's something to look into.
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Note BBC graphics at one point on Saturday/Sunday night had the Monday event as mostly heavy rain until mid-afternoon for the NE. Plenty of changes to go around with the volatile movement of such a synoptic.
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Nick, I'm thinking UKMO-GEM-ECM mash-up, not the GFS imo. What I see is the GFS versus everything- and it just doesn't look right with teleconnections-
Alza, if we clip the front, get a couple of inches, and get some slack E/SE'lies for Saturday to Wednesday (slight frontal incursion.. east flow Monday), then it's jackpot!
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You're going to have to help me out here, IF... is that from convective showers rather than the front? Will we get convection is the front doesn't make it? I'm assuming yes, as the low slides SE and the wind comes from the SE as a result.
It appears we're going to get convection anyway, no matter if the front comes or doesn't.
That is all frontal precip- the EC very bullish in it coming early on Friday and delivering a good amount of snow...
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To answer that one, it's because milder uppers (only just) exist in the south and west- with a strong E'ly- a lot of angriness at the fact everything doesn't last forever, and that the BBC forecasts suggest some SLEET and RAIN (oh no ahhhhh).
Short answer- don't look at the MT to gauge your opinion on Scottish weather- look on this thread, all the insight you need from LS, Lorenzo and others
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Quite snowy according to the hi-res EC for Tyne and Wear.
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Lisa Gallagher = FINALLY some proper, fit NE weather totty
I'd rather have Ian Fergusson, but if you're going to have presenter, not forecaster, then I agree, fit is the way forward!
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-8c uppers quite widely across the NE on Sat with surface cold quite embedded, dew points should be below zero for the most part. The only realistic problem, is the coast and nearby areas have strong south-easterlies, it could be a very close shave. The flow after that is 100% snow showers and frontal incursions.
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I like Paul Mooney- however he does seem to be a bit of a mildie.
Sleet? No chance- strong flow off the North Sea, yes- but incredibly cold surface temps and dew points- it's going to be very hard to see rain and sleet.. plenty of convection progged as well.
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48-168 was probably the best 5 day period I have seen on the EC since November 2010's prospects.
And the reload potential from the NE after 168... is monster, the injection of polar energy into Scandinavia, the retrogressive motion completing over the GIN corridor, and the Azores high ridging into Greenland (MJO phase 7, ta)... cold bottling up for release is extraordinary.
And the most extraordinary thing about is that the most extraordinary stuff is at D2-D7... from frontal to convective to frontal to convective to a bit of both, basically all of Scotland, England and parts of Wales are in for a snow-fest... combine that with the incredibly low temps over the snowfields.. wow.
People have analysed the early part of the run enough... hemispherically, this is awesome
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A superb run from the ECM- just as snowy as Nov 25-Dec 2 (which was INCREDIBLE!)
Bare in mind it's just one run, but the EC, UKMO and GEM output have been VERY similar in making this so- it could really be something special if we go with the (upper air) flow.
Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards
in Regional
Posted
-5.4c here!