Isolated Frost
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Posts posted by Isolated Frost
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The EC output for Friday would be snowier than the GEM, UKMO and GFS, but all output would give us snow on Friday. That, for me, is a big positive.
The GFS and GEM solutions are basically completely similar, with the BBC forecast above trending towards that it seems- though the UKMO solution is the halfway house between the American and European output.
At 96 we have a diversified range of solutions- from a formed trough to the SW on the GEM, to the slack SE flow on the EC and GFS output- UKMO a halfway house again.
If I'm going to look at it from a snow POV for the NE-
72
1. ECMWF
2. UKMO
3. GFS
4. GEM
96
1. GFS
2. UKMO/ECMWF
3. GEM
120
1. GFS
2. GEM
3. ECMWF/UKMO
144
1. GEM
2. GFS
3. ECMWF
4. UKMO
For substantial long-lasting cold-
1. GFS
2. GEM
3. ECMWF
4. UKMO
That's how good the 12zs were... every model were giving their own take on the situation... and each take was cold and bitter!
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EC has heavy snow and sleet over the NW on Friday- the front backs eastwards and gives some lighter snow here on late Fri and Sat. Heavy snow on Sunday with a much favourable flow.
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The ECM precipitation charts aren't spectacular for the NE, but I'd expect the mildish North Sea to pep up the front a bit, as well as some pornographic lift due to the onshore wind. Still, every 12z tonight would probably give 10cm or more by Monday with cold easterlies continuing thereafter.
I think we could do without that mate!
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From "North Sea Snow Convection" on TWO:
Assuming the ECM was to verify the coldest air would start mixing out in the southern most counties by Saturday morning - so cold rain from the subsequent lows from then on. North of the M4 into the midlands probably snow through to at least Sunday before mixing out here maybe a little. From North midlands and especially Northern England northwards its looks cold and snowy throughout. However that is just an opinion on what the ECM shows at face value and there is some way to go yet
I think she is on Netweather also with a different alias-
I would agree with that assessment- particular as the ECMWF 12z has uppers below -4c over NE England for it's entirety, and plenty of precipitation-synoptics.. Scotland, N England, the Midlands the best places imo- and perhaps the South at times.
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My thoughts exactly! I'm not into this "how great for the NW/SW/SE/Mids" nonsense. I live in the NE, I want the best snow here!
Also agree that I don't want any half-ar sed showers to ruin the falling temps. Tonight it's all about how cold it can get!
ECM looks to give hope... what about Sunday onwards on the models.. any good ones?
Could you guesstimate what sorts of snowdepths we and the West respectively could get from that?
Hmmm... check this twitter convo out... possible chances of the low ending up further N? This woudl go against Steve Murr:
Matt: This really is impressive cold GFS12z ens for N Eng
Liam: Potentially a snowfest in the shorter term too...
Matt: Yeah for sure. I have a feeling the risk fo snow will extend well into the Midlands and N Eng on Friday...
Ian: new UKMO guidance agrees with you Matt, with change to rain in SW through Fri
Matt: Interesting, presumably 12Z based, but yeah as discussed think Midlands/N Eng will 'join the party' on Fri.
Ian also tweeted later to say that the Northward progress of the front remains uncertain in UKMO
We would be cold, very cold based on the ECMWF 12z suite- it's an absolute stonker.
In terms of snow, I'd say quite a bit- the progression and tilt is mainly SSE-NNW- which is very encouraging for us here- there would be some amazing totals-
Dream scenario for me is- (note DREAM!!!!)
Friday heavy snow here, Saturday cold and dry
Sunday reinforces that cold east flow via a weak cold trough- Monday has some snow from the east-
Then the rest of next week, heavy snow across central and western parts- to enhance the british view of the spell
and whilst this is happening, we have our snowfields and clear skies with temps PLUMMETING .. -15c's possible on the EC suite
and after the record cold, we then look at the convective NElies to end the month
ay... we can dream- but the 12zs suite would all give the NE of England some significant snow and cold down the line- just in different ways... very encouraging signs... and no sign of milder weather on it's way- icy...
-3.2c now, Nick, I agree, tonight is about the cold- let's get ourselves a deep frost on top of the snow
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-3c touched here.
Glorious ECM.
Prolonged cold, especially for the east- some incredible snowfalls, especially for the west- but a bit of both for everyone. Ice days and sharp frosts across the snowfields.
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-2.4c at 1820, on top of 5cms of snow. Not bad at all.
Very cold, but not snowy is how I'd sum up the next 2 days, before a return to potentially wet times. That wet will be snow, but how much is the question! It's lovely to have the question of little or lots of snow
Rivers and lakes freezing over the next few days anyone?
Copious snow.
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This is a superb chart Alza ^
UKMO and GFS output v similar, just the odd shift here and there- ECMWF output should gauge the opinion and split them- the GEM gives a very interesting alternate option
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Snowy for us?
Yep.
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UKMO a bit further south and east on the 120-
That is a snowy chart.
There is a very fine line when it comes to events like this, I wouldn't mind just staying in the cold air and getting some good snow shrs/edge the band so we have snow lying for a week!
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^ Indeed. Bulk of the snow goes to NW England, Midlands and the SE. Very cold here though.
ECM/UKMO suites would be snowy here.
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Very heavy snow here, covered most surfaces, at least 2cm from this alone. Superb!
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Snowing heavily here .
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5cm here, just had a mod snowfall. Not much to come, North Sea still has some activity for this afternoon.
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It looks quite quiet Nick, but as last night had shown, intensity can always increase.
Today will be the best today for convection this week, but then tomorrow and Thursday look bloody freezing with a chance of some isolated showers, and Friday/Saturday potentially a frontal+convective snowfest! (potentially!)
River Wear could easily be in danger of freezing in parts by Saturday.
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Morning all.
Looks nice out there, doesn't it?
Not convinced a huge amount was added from 1am till now - running the radar back nowhere had anything that heavy. But looking good for the next 20 minutes or so. Wish it could hold off for 40 minutes as it'd be great to walk my daughter to school with falling snow.
It seems quite slow moving and it's only just light here, so maybe you will be- I'm starting to walk in 10 mins, so I should have some in my mates house.
Mind you, it's not quite as nostalgic and momentous when a bunch of whiny teenagers, still angry at the facts they got up 10 minutes ago, school is open despite the 5cm deluge, and they have loads of coursework for IT, walk through the streets of Washington.
I still love it though!
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Bar 2009-10 and 2010-11, this would rank pretty highly in the 21st century scheme of things, and has plenty of life in it still.
Snowing lightly here again, -0.1c.
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7th snow lying day of the winter on it's way (Dec 1, 3, 6, 7, 14; Jan 14, 15) and 8th since July 1st (October snow).
That's much better than last year's 4 snow lying days already! So, it's not been abysmal by any means, and we're only half way through, currently on about 120% of the average regarding snow cover.
Starting to snow again, expecting to add at least a cm with this next band.. everything is adding on nicely now.
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Added another 1cm last night, 4cm on the fence.
North Sea doesn't look quite finished yet, big snow shower on it's way for much of the NE in the next 30 minutes.
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Starting to get much colder here, -0.4c. NMM expect the upper vectors to turn N/NE tomorrow morning so I'd be looking at what is coming out off E Scotland.
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1.7º here. We have 3-4cm of snow, but it's drip, drip, drip from the trees and roofs and very wet snow underfoot. I can see it melting on the paths again.
Any chance of anymore overnight?
Small chance, BBC forecast had a few shrs by the coast.
North Sea is a beaut Alza, it'll produce when it wants
Really happy with 3-4cm today, bloody cold tomorrow with a high of 1c/2c progged. Wednesday even colder, Thursday, Friday and Saturday on the battleground. Lots of snow possible.
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few pictures from north york moors bit blurry and it was foggy
Beautiful place, fantastic snow falls as well, fascinated for 4wd to come back.
Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards
in Regional
Posted
Nope- latest modelling predicts the West Midlands and potentially the NW of England will get the most- with the South, South East, East Midlands, Yorkshire, N Ireland and parts of NE England to clip the rest of it. Plenty of opportunity for change, for good or for worse.