Zakos

ermmmm yeah http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120109/18/276/h850t850eu.png

1040mb just east of Svalbard... much higher than the 12z. Now, will it set up shop over Scandinavia, or will the jet stream crash on through? well know in a few minutes

if the GFS 18z ensembles and op stick with the cold easterly/south easterly, Its still game on IMO. If they ditch the idea completely , then this could be a non event, although we wont know for sure until there is cross model agreement.

This is an animation I use often. This is because it excludes FI (well, the low resolution output), and gives a temperature value against the average. It uses the GFS op. http://policlimate.c...anom_eur_f.html This chart, is by far, and without a shadow of a doubt, the coldest and most widespread cold spell affecting the uk i have seen forecast in the last 4 months. http://policlimate.c...om_eur_f_33.png Of course, it is still quite far out, and, especially at the variability in output recently, this could change completely. But ived checked this almost every day since winter started and nothing has come close to the cold currently being modelled. The "green" air (-7 Fahrenheit below average) never made it to the UK even at 192 hours in any output from this animation to my knowledge.

Please show me a chart that showed -10 t850s over any part of the UK, at less than 300 hours out, in any ECM/GFS run in the last 4 months.... To my knowledge there has been none, therefore automatically it is the best chart of the winter regardless of whether it verifies or not... My area is forecast to be under below -5 t850's from Monday 15th to Friday the 20th. Not just 36 hours. So, again, you are wrong. My issue is not with your opinion on where the cold will come from etc.. You are fully entitle to your opinion. My issue is with your incorrect analysis of charts. It doesn't matter if you think they verify or not, the charts themselves are very promising - http://nwstatic.co.u...264/h500slp.png

It finishes around 7.00pm i belive, it starts to update around 6.00pm on here - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

No one said it was spectacular though did they .... and it is compared to anything we have seen this winter.... I genuinely fail to see how you think this is a poor run. Everyone else on this forum seems to think the opposite.

Really? http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120109/12/240/h850t850eu.png This is without doubt the best chart I have seen since last winter. Huge upgrade on the 06z. Of course I agree that we shouldn't get our hopes up because we need the ECM to back it up first at least. But to use a chart at 384 hours out which shows mild while the rest of the run shows deep cold is just plain wrong.

No deep cold (below -10t850) on the 06z ensembles it seems. However, very view runs are now going for mild in Fi. Most are are going for a largely settled and quite possibly cold enough for snow outlook. So it does seem that we are not going to experience a "true" easterly initially. With a bit of luck, february could be a significantly colder than average month, as the background signals are now drastically improving and the models are now staring to pick up on this.

Oh yes, December was far from dire, I too had 2 days of temporary snow cover. The background synoptics are now in a much better state IMO. Hoperfully yes, It will be disappointing if the ECM aswell backs off from the

Yes, those who say the current output is dire, should think back to this time last month, and realise we are far, far more likely to experience some "real" cold despite what the current models are showing for the UK itself. This time last month, we were looking out for pockets of -5 t850's in a Polar Maritime incursions. No northern blocking whatsoever even in the deepest of FI. Were now looking at potential for serious cold, with a sustained strongly negative -AO and -NAO. Still to early for any real certainty of course. I for one am highly anticipating the ECM 12z today. IF it stick to its Scandi high forecast, this will be very encouraging IMO.

Stronger heights over the arctic . Pv weaker and further west over greenland. Jet stream slightly weaker. 12z could be a stonker in FI

VERY close to a very potent easterly on that run... Quite a different evolution to the 06z. I hope its still there on the 18z. Im going to be watching that artic high like a hawk over the next week.

AO looks set to head at least slightly negative. NAO could go either way.

Indeed. Im also interested in that Russian high heading towards Scandinavia right at the end of the run.... it may be FI, but, compared to this time last month, were much more likely to experience "real" and possibly prolonged cold in the next few weeks.

oh yes I am aware of this. Its only one run, but I'm just pointing out that the trend is for upgrades, which is good sign , for coldies.

PV looking much weaker already on the GFS 18z compared to the 12z.

GFS 00z a clear outlier in FI. Zero support for the op right at the end of the output. Many ensembles go for below -5 t850's at the end. Even the mean is very close to -5 in the south. I suspect the 06z op will also be an outlier in FI.

FI or not, the GFS has been consistent with the idea of a northerly in mid jan. Some of the FI charts over the last couple days have shown powerful northern blocking. This was (correct me if I am wrong) never shown earlier in december or november, even in the deepest of FI. The northern blocking is by no means certain, but it is looking much more likely than earlier on in the month IMO.

Very interesting FI outputs lately...

True cold zonality? http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111223/18/384/hgt500-1000.png

PV forecast to split?

Exactly. Im perfectly happy to just miss out on snow. But when there is literally snow sheild where all areas around us in every direction get snow and we get a dusting it really annoys me. This wont happen this time.

I do think we could see some, But yes last winter was atrocious for us!!! we dont wont a repeat of that...

Make a prediction based on the radar tonight.Chances are you will be more accurate than the models...