Zakos
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Posts posted by Zakos
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Interesting to see that 3 out of the 4 last GFS runs have a northerly blast around the 7th of November.
I know its FI, but the consistency could mean something.
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The latest GFS Run shows a massive upgrade to the cold potential
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The current GFS run is by a massive degree the best run I have ever seen for November.
It shows the entire UK plunged into a extreme and prolonged, with massive snowfall totals, especially for this time of the year.
It shows the UK experiencing freezing conditions from Wednesday 24th, with increasing cold, and increasing intentisty and frequency of heavy snow showers.
It then shows a front trying to push in on Sat 4th of Dec, which will create massive snowfall totals over the entire country.
This of course is succeptable to change, especially the further you go ahead.
But, with the gfs consistently showing freezing conditions, and with regular upgrades to snow potential,
I believe this cold spell will definitely be one to remember, and will be on the front page of every tabloid etc..
This pattern as previously mentioned is difficult to break down, and has a tendency to repeat itself, so I believe the winter, at the least the first half, will be extreme.
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The charts show bitter cold in december, and are also now begging to show February to be cold aswell, with January being mixed, and with eastern england having the most persistant cold.
This is in line with BTFP's LRF, and many others aswell. The charts are going totally against JOE B, it will be interesting to see who is right...
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Ok here is the major flaw in JOE B's prediction.
JOE B uses a model from the "Indian Ocean Dipole" Site in his latest video. It predicts northern Europe winter to be above average, especially Scandinavia.
The flaw here is that he previously discarded this model, saying "it was the coldest one i could find, and I dont think this will happen", as this model previously predicted northern europe to be below normal.
This is fair enough, however, In the previous video, he used the CPC model in his argument, as it previuosly predicted northern europe to be above average, and was thus in co-ordination with his forecast.
However, the CPC charts now predict a harsh winter, especially the first half. JOE B is disregarding a model just because it doesnt agree with him, which he previously used.
Cherrypicking is fair enough, but I dont agree with him chopping an changing the models he uses in his videos just because they agree with him.
JOE B has the "core of the cold" right I think, but I believe he is wrong on northern europe being warmer than normal, as it goes against many models and LRF'S, and has no justification.
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Nobody seems to have picked up on my point.
When was the last occasion a developing La Nina/strong one at that came after a cold winter? The 1954-55/1955-56 events were actually I think a La Nina in the process of waning and waxing.
Recent examples seem to be coming after average to mild winters.
The jet stream is unusually far south, solar activity is still very low , and the gulf stream is behaving abnormally. We are in different times. we cannot make LRF'S alone on the state the La-nina because nobody can predict where the block will form.
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JOE B I think is reconsidering his winter forecast, as he bases his predictions partially with the CFS carts, and they showed The winter in the uk to be mild at the time JOE B was producing his forecast. They now show at least the first half of winter to be well below normal, and I think JOE B will pick up on this.
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"The cold spell is most definitely still on, and though there are no guarantees, I can’t remember seeing so much consistency in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasting models. Run after run, day after day, they’re generating the same pattern of pressure rising massively to the north. The fine details are obviously changing from run to run, but the general pattern is one that is almost certain to bring a significant and possibly sustained cold spell to Britain / west Europe. Snow is on the way during the next few weeks"
Quote from TWO BUZZ. http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx
This is in agreement with my earlier post
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I am not implying extreme cold meaning -30, Im saying that it will be far below average, and for a long amount of time.
Perhaps the word "Severe" Would have been more appropriate.
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These are the best synoptics I have ever seen for November. The consistency aswell is remarkable, I cannot see how this can be averted. I see a extreme and prolonged cold spell form Friday 26th onwards, causing widespread Heavy Snow.
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Mmm not sure your logic adds up here. High pressure doesn't need a stratospheric warming event to develop. Indeed many seem to be latching onto stratospheric warming as the key factor for a cold blocked set up.. probably because of what happened in late Jan 09. It can aid development of strong heights in favourable positions for sustained cold, but other factors can work against it, look at how Feb 09 eventually turned out..
Agreed. January, and especially February, are too far off to provide any real confidence on the outcome.
This, in my opinion, is shown by the CFS charts. If they keep changing between mild and cold with no real consistency, it means its basically too far off to call.
However, the charts are now consistently showing December to be well below normal, indicating high confidence in the forecast.
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The current GFS Run is very interesting for HGT 500-1000 From 216 hours onwards. -http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=
It shows 4 separate wintry blasts, 2 from the north and 2 from the north east, with the Atlantic lows being completely blocked.
Too far off for any real confidence, but it could bring bring temperatures far below normal and big snowfall totals.
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No need to apologize for that, you might have thought this set up would happen long before
you posted the prediction, your thoughts are same as mine on this winter going by that post. (: I expect ea/se to get the ne then easterly with north sea building features for big snow shrs. and the Russian freezer door opening for the UK! december low precipitation , but snow showers and harsh frosts.
Thanyou! And yes this is also what I believe will happen. Im not too sure on what will happen after decmember though, It could become even colder and snowier, but theres a possibility it will become very dry and mild
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If, as you say we are heading for an "Omega Block prediction" Then surely the last person to predict so,should take all the credit
Possibly, but the person who makes the prediction first typically gets the credit :/
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Sounds interesting but for me living here has to be a perfect hit, If lows track too far south, ill be too far north for the precip (snow), track too far north then I have a day like monday just gone
not much margin for error
"The main setup for prolonged cold and snowy weather arises when high pressure is centred around Greenland, but has a tendency to ridge eastwards over to Scandinavia at times. When the high extends over to Scandinavia we end up with easterlies, while when the high retreats back to Greenland, pressure falls over Scandinavia and we end up with northerlies. This way, snowfalls occur via both "northerly" and "easterly" snow setups, and there is always a chance of Atlantic systems pushing against the northern high pressure and stalling, bringing big snowfalls at the frontal zone.
Snowfalls occur generally across the country in this setup, although sheltered parts of western Scotland and north-west England may see rather less snow than most other parts of the country."
This quote from http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/20474-winter-snow-setups/ shows that snow is very widespread during these conditions
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This has been and is my prediction.
I apologize, I haven't really been following this thread, This is my prediction aswell, but as you predicted it first, You can take the credit if it happens to occur. Sorry.
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The CFS charts consistently show high pressure to the north and northwest of The Uk, and show Low pressure systems being displaced to the south, for December at least.
What does this mean for the Uk winter? See for yourself -
As described in the Winter snow setups thread, here-http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/20474-winter-snow-setups/, this "Omega Blocking Setup" has the greatest potential to bring very cold and snowy weather to the Uk for long periods of time.
Only time will tell....
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Yes that's what I'm more or less expecting, Atlantic battle ground scenarios with Scotland experiencing average temperatures in winter.
Agreed. I think February is too far away to accurately predict. So Im not going to try.
But for the forthcoming I can not see any reason that set- up this will not happen.
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Judging By the current weather patterns, Id say this winter for at least the first half will be very cold and snowy. The cold spells might not last as long as they did last year, and, the winter overall may possibly be slightly warmer than last year.
However, I expect very big snowfall totals, much more than last year, as I believe there will many cold spells, which are intervened by wet an mild spells from the Atlantic, which will bring regular heavy snow to the battle ground between the cold and warm fronts.
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/eur_raw_temp.html
This animation predicts temperatures -20 the normal for this time of year in the UK. Although this will not bring significant snow or cold as it is still October, If this sort of set up occurs where temperatures dip to -20 below the average in December, you can imagine just how cold it may get.
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfs/current/raw_temp.html
This animation shows the temperature anomalies for the world. Just look how much of the world is experiencing below normal temperatures. Significant Global Cooling is underway.
Model Output Discussion - 7th-13th November
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes, I agree there is potential for it to drag in colder air eventually. Were in a southerly feed now, but we were in an easterly for a few days earlier which was sourced from just south of Scandinavia.
Im only an amateur, Does anyone know roughly when the continent will be cold enough for easterly winds such as this - http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111110/12/216/ukwind.png
To produce cold enough weather for low-level snow? Mid December?