Zakos

even at 96 hours the mid atlantic ridge is significantly stronger on the ECM than the GFS Fantastic ECM at 144, easterly potential is very much still alive based on that chart.

me too, Im ignoring it completely beyond 144. 12z GFS forecast for monday over the last few days,very biased to bring in the atlantic barrelling in. With a UKMO chart like this at 144, im fully expecting further westward corrections on the next runs. IF the UKMO verifies at 144, the GFS 3 days ago was absolutely miles out. ECM 3 days ago wasnt far off...

I think the same, Most peculiar chart I think Ive ever seen! Gfs lost the plot maybe?

GFS forecast evolution for monday over the last 24 hours. GFS has been embarrassingly poor in the medium range, how can we trust any output past day 5 when it has made westward corrections every single run for the last 48 hours?

GFS and ECM mean pretty similar at 216. Encouraging to see the core of low heights around Italy on both models, I believe this is the best place to have low heights if you want an easterly flow, I believe it was nick sussex who said this was the case the other week. ECM mean seems to indicate increased influence of the Russian high compared to GFS, could the strength/influence of the russian high be the game changer perhaps?

Ah i see, The 18z op and ensemble mean are far more suggestive of an easterly than the 12z The 12z indicates a Euro high scenario. A far better pattern over southern europe on the 18z A step towards the ECM scenario. Far from certain of course, but certainly potential and with the UK met office consistently suggesting the threat of an easterly, i can see why it is a popular topic of discussion.

I imagine because we have this from the ECM at 192 hours.

Perhaps, but we wouldn't need a massive upgrade at all, certainly not given the timeframe. The 18z itself is a massive upgrade and a huge step towards the ECM scenario

Clear backtrack from the GFS today, always pushes atlantic into europe far too quickly. I never trust GFS when against ECM+UKMO with entrenched cold over europe.GFS is always trumped by these models in these setups.

] ECM still better, but GFS finally smelling the coffee. That ECM chart has got to be one of the best anomalies ive seen at 168+ hours this winter, surely there is potential for a bitter easterly if this verifies?

Im no expert, but with a chart like this at just 168 hours from the ECM, I personally think an easterly is now the more likely scenario Perhaps a dry cold easterly with little snow, but that chart is only heading in one direction i.e an easterly flow of some kind across the UK. GFS still wants to bring in the atlantic, but almost every run keeps the cold over europe longer, and delays the arrival of westerlies - Im not buying it

Ridiculous difference between ECM and GFS at just 144. Experience tells me, with such huge model disparity at such a short range, a significant pattern change is likely to occur, and my money is on a cold easterly, potentially very cold with snow. Although in reality, perhaps it will be a tad watered down from the ECM day 10 chart, what an absolutely stunning chart. also goes to show we dont necessarily need a negative AO to get bitter cold, as the atlantic continues to be very inactive. GFS wants to fire up the atlantic, an unlikely scenario based on how timid the atlantic has been for the last 6 months.

Huge difference between UKMO and GFS at 144+. Even at 120 there is a remarkable difference. My opinion? the GFS is "defaulting" to the climatological norm. The GFS is infamous for being too progressive when removing cold air from Europe. UKMO is far more likely to be on the money.

Hopefully not!! In my opinion, best chance of the season for a noteable cold spell. We are starting to see promising charts within 168 hour range now. Hopefully by this time tommorow things we be more clear! if the euro high returns once again, Im taking a break from model watching until next winter, just about had it with the teasing from the models!

Actually, I was wrong, its not model uncertainty, it appears the GFS is most definitely playing catch up once again, startlingly similar pattern with the ECM now. If it verifies, ECM has embarrassed the GFS once again. really starting to loose faith in the GFS beyond 144 hours now, too inclined to "default" to climatology

Ah you beat me to it! Yes most definitely, GFS definitely playing catch up once again, ECM has definitely trumped the GFS this season!

By 204, the 18z bears no resemblance whatsoever to the 12z over the atlantic.... highlights the model uncertainty. Both runs have cold pooling and low heights over Europe - encourganing sings.

Quite a shift from the 18z GFS at 180. The model output is definitely trending towards the removal of the Euro High. At the very least we would be prone to further pm blasts if this occurs.

Wow, what an anomaly at 168.Finally seeing the Euro High being replaced with low pressure perhaps? We currently have a small area of low pressure over SE Europe. By 192 on the ECM, we have deep low heights over all of Europe. If this chart verifies, the rest of Jan has much potential for further cold spells IMO. That cold pool over Europe wouldn't be going anywhere fast, especially considering the timidness of the atlantic weather systems this winter.

ECM and GFS at 192. both have a very large anomaly in the atlantic - encouraging. However, when comparing these two charts, it looks as though the siberian high may act as our friend rather than our foe this month. A much stronger Siberian high on the ECM, looks to me that this forces the core of low heights over europe to be much further west. It also appears to increase heights around Scandi/Svalbard, which would be key in order for us to see an easterly flow. An even better comparison is the GFS 18Z vs 12Z The 12z shows a stronger Russian high, which the altantic ridge is trying to link up with. If the highs do link up, game on for a bitter easterly flow 18z is pants- no link up of the highs. Can't see a Greenland High anytime soon... definitely potential for an easterly IMO. Not saying it will happen, but patience is required. As long as both blocks remain in place, it is certainly a possibility, all we need is a bit of luck.

Agree with steve,best chance of widespread snow of the season coming up. ECM mean for the 12th over the last 3 days shows a clear trend to build strong heights in the mid north atlantic, each run has weaker heights to our south, and deeper low heights over Europe. ECM at 192 Very large block in atlantic, hinting towards atlantic high - siberian high link up. If this verifies I would have thought we would be locked into a cold pattern. quite encouraging to see such an anomaly at just 192 hours.

The best Anomaly at 168+ from ECM and GFS ive seen all winter. Low heights deepening over europe, and looks like the high may (finally) back far enough west for the UK to become cold/very cold

The Siberian High looks set to become very large according to the ECM and GFS means. Could this weaken the PV? or perhaps aid our pattern by pushing it further west, and perhaps deepening low heights over Europe? In the shorter term - Personally very encouraged by the ECM mean 144. looks like how heights are becoming entrenched over europe. Won't this, coupled with lower temperatures in the region, help to potentially force the jet stream to take a more southerly track? No raging Greenland High, but a darn sight better than what we had this time last month All to play for IMO

GFS and ECM at 168. I will eat my hat if the ECM beats the GFS at 168 hours... provided it is backed up by its ensembles. I wonder... is the ECM showing increasing influence of the Siberian High, forcing the pattern to back further west? ECM anomaly at 144 is fantastic. Cannot for the life of me understand all the pessimism on here, there is fantastic potential. Deep low heights and cold locked in over Europe, Atlantic ridging, Southerly tracking lows diving into Europe. Yes,granted, the long range models have made a complete fool of themselves this winter. The above chart is 144 hours out... We are by far in the best position all winter, probably even better than anything we had last winter. Doesn't the cold usually hit Europe first, then the Uk is usually one of the last countries to join the fun as we are on the western edge of the continent? Just because we just missed an opportunity for cold doesnt mean anything in the grand scheme of things, still 2 months of winter to go!

Thankyou Blizzard. Its Undeniably outperformed the GFS this winter IMO. Yes exactly, cold and blocked. Snowy conditions could crop up at any point, even within 96 hours if the airflow is suitable. I think people are forgetting this is the best chart of winter so far... this is what is happening in the atmosphere as we speak. Yes, we were all lead up the garden path in December. But we never had anything close to this chart, please correct me if Im wrong somebody? Potential for the first half of January is fantastic IMO.