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Gibby
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Posts posted by Gibby
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5 hours ago, jethro said:
That's bonkers, I'm about a mile and a half away and it's really coming down well here, beginning to settle too, despite everything being soaking from the earlier rain.
Disappointing in Kilmersdon to say the least at 300ft asl. A patchy cover from earlier but at 1.7C nothing much has stuck and the strong wind is aiding rapid thawing. Elevation is everything this morning. If your above 300ft up then a winter wonderland is the greeting this morning but to be honest here the wind is more of a feature gusting 40 mph.
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Just a bit too far South of precipitation band here currently. Down to 1.7C and the odd flurry in the wind but that’s all.
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Temperatures dropped from 6C to 3C in the last hour as the North wind has cut in. Not much in the way of precipitation though at the moment.
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Very cold start here in NE Somerset with a lot of clear skies and temperatures of -5C currently.
I’ve taken a look at the model output this morning and it looks like by this time next week we will be looking at double figure temperatures widely across the area under long fetch SW’lies.
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Not been on the forums of late. Too busy with work but that hasn't stopped me keeping in touch and you can always catch my daily ramblings with my local folks on the Kilmersdon Weather Facebook Page or the Model Analysis Page I update daily on my website.
I think we got very unlucky with the snow. I personally think the Met Office got it just about right in their forecasts as areas South of the M4 and in the SW were never likely to get much if any and we didn't. I must say though that I think tonight's minima are well over egged for some away from those that have deep snow cover. There is a lot of low based cloud which is floating down in the decaying North or NW wind and while I'm sure it will disperse again it will limit the fall at least for a time. Cornwall and North Devon are susceptible to some showers too overnight, wintry I'm sure over the higher hills down there. Temperature wise I've gone from -1.8C an hour or two ago to +0.9C now as one such area of cloud is passing over. At least we've got no snow as such to worry about thawing.
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Been some amazing showers here in North-East Somerset today. We have had 26mm of rain since 3pm as the train of convergence showers across the spine of SW England bombards my area one after another. Some crazy rain rates at times but amazingly only distant rumbles of thunder before the first storm arrived before 15:00.
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Took these images from Kilmersdon on the massive hail, sleet and thunderstorms that hit our patch yesterday.
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59 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:The ecm has been struggling on and off all winter, not to mention the ecm monthly lol. The ecm was the only model that didn't really go for this easterly in the first place. Think back to late last week with those dodgy runs . It has been poor in the 6 day plus range all winter. Was better before the upgrade.
The ECM is and has not been poor. It constantly verifies greater than GFS and UKMO. Remember a few days ago when it churned out that awful run when it showed High pressure drifting South and cutting off the cold period while all the other models maintained us in the freezer for next week. A couple of days later all models have caught up on the theme albeit in a modified form. ECM has modified its own version of that event but you cannot discount it because it hasn't been showing what you want it too. Wait till after the event then criticize. We've not even got to the cold spell yet so all models could be proved wrong but not until we reach the end of next week. You have to use longer range charts over say Day 5-6 for trends only not for specifics and that day in my mind when ECM pulled out that rogue run was the beginning of a new trend, one which has now spread across all output. From my POV the current trend is for milder conditions early next week but with the possibility of a return to colder conditions later. My reasoning being that is the trend I accomplish by a blend of all models, ensembles etc over this mornings and the last few runs. Heres the latest 10 Day Verification Stats for the 00zs.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:
It's nowhere near as windy as yesterday, and the MetO windspeed forecasts are way out for this location. It's barely gusting to 20mph. The confusion they bring with warnings is unprecedented! How can they expect folks to understand what is going on when their warnings don't correlate to any of their forecasts, and vice versa?
Temp: 8°C - Hum: 92% - Dew: 6.8°C - Rain: 4.2mm - Bar: 992.08hPa - Wind: SSE @ 12mph.
The trouble is they're bedevilled if they do warn us and bedevilled when they don't. In the current setup it's the track of the depression over the top of SW England and not to the NW which has spared us of the wind. It was always a tricky one to call which the Met have well emphasised in recent days. You are right though of course and winds are nowhere near as bad as yesterday when we were directly on the windward side of a depression out to our West.
i do expect a short squally band of rains to swing East across our area later as winds switch to the West or NW accompanied by a sharp drop in temperature. I notice this has already occurred in the Scilly Isles and West Cornwall.
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Can't post charts on this device but from what I've seen tonight I'm not going to dust the sleigh off yet. IMO we'll end up with a slack continental drift into principally Eastern and NE areas with nothing more than a flurry of snow from low stratus type cloud while the South and West remain on the periphery of milder Atlantic air encroachment. I will add that I don't see that encroachment as a major battleground scenario as I feel pressure will be too high to the SW forcing the Jet Stream to be pushed NE to the NW of Britain and not allowing enough energy under the ridge or undercutting as is the term used here. So rather cold and principally dry is the overall message. Not saying I'm right but taking all models and output as a whole on tonight's 12zs I think that's where this will end up by the end of next week.
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-3.9C currently under gin clear skies and calm conditions. Probably the last frost of this type for a while as cloud and a cold wind is likely to displace this weather type by tonight. Rain likely by the weekend too, now that's something a bit different.
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Spared of all the trouble that you guys have in Hampshire and Dorset. It's been pretty cloudy most of the night and though temperature did fall to -2C briefly last evening they recovered to be around 0C for rest of the night as cloud formed. Having cloud meant we escaped fog too but of course no sun this morning. Just very hazy gloom. I see the anticipated change to mild Atlantic weather is put back yet again this morning. Could really do with some rain and wind to wash or blow all this clag away.
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Beautiful morning here but bone chillingly cold at -6.8C in the last hour with a dew point near -8C. No cloud or wind with a lot of hoar frost which has doubled on top of yesterday mornings in the areas where the sun doesn't get.
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The back edge of yesterday's cloud hasn't made much progress anywhere since yesterday with areas north of Bristol relatively frost free and grey while to the South including here this morning sharp frost at -4C is commonplace.
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We lie right on the edge of the cloud sheet this morning. Clear skies to the South with frost levels down at -4 to -6C rurally while under the cloud sheet NW of a line Bristol to Shepton Mallet it is +3C or more under grey skies. Here's my Webshop a short while back.
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Almost 10C here with the sun breaking through at times. Almost an air of spring in the air.
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The cold weather before Christmas saw lower temperatures than this northerly. Topped 6C around 2pm this afternoon and no air frost as yet in this spell. Currently at 4.1C. Talk of temperatures on the lunchtime weather to -4 and -5C in the countryside tonight I feel will be wide of the mark unless we add in the wind chill. That very wind will hold actual temperatures at or near freezing all night unless it drops out. Could be icy though and the odd rogue shower could make it down across us again from the NNW. All ends up your standard UK Winter short cold snap and nothing more.
Also I see that the 12zs so far continue the slow decline in the hope of extended cold weather as the earlier this week expected cold Easterly for next week looks increasingly doomed to fantasy although I daren't go in there and say that
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Surprised (unless I've missed it) there hasn't been more disappointment in this chart tonight. I know it's at 10 days but it has shown a marked increase in the sinking of the High to Northern France in comparison to recent runs with the dreaded Westerlies setting up across the UK. This could be what IF is referring too in his earlier tweet for the end of the month from ECM.
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Finally turned to a sleety mix here in the village but much better on the hills around. Will cease though here in about 30mins or so.
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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Gibby may have this wrong as it's snowing in many places, not Swindon yet though just sleet
No I think that areas east and SE of me will probably do OK. Just here in the West Country too slow an undercut of cold air before the depth of depression intensified the speed of the undercut has meant areas west of Wiltshire have largely missed out. I think the SE could have a rough couple of hours this evening though. Enjoy..
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I think we can almost write off anything below about 500-600ft now. The Mendip tops along with Exmoor could see a bit but I think the fun will be much more towards the higher ground of the SE as we move through the evening. For us the current rain/sleet will slowly diminish with clearer skies later this evening. The undercut of cold here in the SW was not quick enough or strong enough and it's only now that the Low which is still deepening rapidly sucks in more cold the SE may well fair better which in fairness was indicated from the Met this morning. While the temperature has fallen markedly here over the last couple of hours it is still 4C and would need to drop a couple more degrees here at least before sleet would develop. Mind you I know I'm only at at around 300ft asl here which is why I think the Mendip Plain might be lucky before it stops. Cant see a winter wonderland though even there from this event.
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Your all taking to much notice of these weather apps. They are next to useless and not meant for enthusiasts like us with time better spent on looking at radars and temperature gauges. My own take is that yes some with altitude will see some snow soon but lower lying areas may end up disappointed. I think there's a far greater chance over the SE after dark. We might get lucky with some snow showers overnight though with ice becoming a major issue from quite early this evening as the rain/snow mix clears.
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The colder air doesn't arrive until winds have shifted out of the current WSW quarter and veers to the NW. This process is beginning as can be seen on the XC wind observation site where the temperatures has fallen off to 3C on Exmoor with the boundary stretching down the Bristol Channel across Devon and South Cornwall.
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For my part I think there will be a lessening of the cold later in the weekend as the High pressure moves in cutting off the north flow. I don't see it setting up a mild SW'ly though. More likely is a build of High pressure back and up across the UK early next week perhaps preceded by a runaway disturbance moving SE along a warm front with an attendant band of rain and snow with the South and East maintaining a cold feel afterwards with light winds eventually from maybe a SE point or at least 'faux' cold in calm anticyclonic type conditions. This might be harder to achieve for our northern contingent as SW winds have a greater chance of getting a hold up there at least for a time. Remember the continent is very cold and any ingress of mild air is going to have a fight on it's hands to battle the heavy weight of cold air over there as there looks to be no driving forcing Low pressure from the Atlantic accompanying any mild air at the weekend or start to next week. I expect the ECM run to show something along the lines I've mentioned here in an hour or so. I concede though that it is unlikely to show any noteworthy Easterly but we can only hope.
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Model output discussion - into 2018
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Paul
Incidentally some dissing the ECM Verification should view the latest 10 day hemispheric ones which see ECM reign supreme over GFS almost incessantly, currently 47.6 ECM to 40.6 GFS taking all 10 day predictions over the last 31 days. Just because output might not show what you want doesn’t make it any lesser a model.