bobbydog
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Posts posted by bobbydog
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there is no such thing as the moon. its a hoax
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This is todays 200m depth gulf stream velocity.
http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest
Now we were saying hmmmm, theres not much change in the velocity of this depth or its alot quicker than surface and more consistent etc.
Has anyone actually noticed, ive just noticed, that the red colours are only 1m/s velocity. The key is different to speed of surface flow(or 0m on the options which is what weve been looking at and quoting the last month)
So thats slow too? What do others think?
this has been mentioned before- it is slower and more consistent at 200m therefore shows up on the charts more. i look at all the depths, velocity and temps, 0m down to around 500m as these are the most relevant. 0m probably being most important
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From the Met Office
UK Outlook for Monday 25 Oct 2010 to Monday 8 Nov 2010:
Generally changeable at first, especially in the north, with the best of any drier, brighter weather in the south and southwest. As the period evolves, the best brightness is expected to spread across the west of the country, with above average sunshine here. By contrast the east should see nearer normal values. In terms of rainfall, the north of the country is expected to be drier than would be typical for autumn, with perhaps higher rainfall towards the southeast. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be well below average for the time of year, with overnight frost likely.
"Well below average?" hmmmm can we trust these guys from a .gov department?
of course we can! they are using a new computer prediction system. its called 'netweather'.........
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I think the 'we should wait and see' theory is very sensible. There are so many conflicting opinions flying around that one doesn't know what to believe. It is also rather annoying that the relevant comparison data is impossible to access. I have attached today's update and I must say it isn't looking very healthy.
i have been watching these charts since this thread began and although not dramatic, there has been a noticeable steady decline in the strength of the current. Wether or not this decline continues, remains to be seen. As you say, it would be nice to have last years data to compare it to but it is weaker compared to july (earliest comparison data available) especially around the caribbean and the gulf of mexico which apparently is where it picks up a lot of its heat
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Due to the large body of warm water drifting over from the tropics, there would probably be some SST cooling over time if the NAD does stall. The big question is how much and over what time interval. Some estimates refer to 0,5 degrees of cooling while others are outragously high at 2 to 3 degrees. There is a school of thought that suggests we would never be subject to the climate of Northern Canada or Russia because they are climates occuring within large land masses. Our climate even without the NAD would still be influenced by warmth released from the oceans in winter. There is some evidence that the NAD does directly affect the JET and as Paceboy mentions above, the effect might be for the JET to track futher south leaving us exposed to more northern continental conditions. The trouble is none of these ideas are backed up by hard science and we are unfortunately left with more speculation and questions than concrete answers.
Regards,
Paul
i agree that our climate could never be the same as russia or canada as our weather is heavily maritime influenced. however, if the stopping/slowing NAD scenario were to unfold, would our climate not become more similar to iceland?
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MEI stands for Multivariate ENSO Index
Have a look at this link for more information:
Ah! thanks ben, so basically the mei corresponds to the strength of la nina/ el nino and everything that is influenced by it
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first one=ITCZ=Inter Tropical Convergence Zone
this from uk weather faqs is as good an explanation as any
Intertropical Convergence Zone
(usually abbr. ITCZ) A zone (often rather broad, but sometimes quite narrow), which separates the 'air-masses' brought together by the low-level outflow from the sub-tropical high pressure belts north and south of the equator. Over the oceans, the zone can be well marked; over land, sensible heating usually leads to 'breaks' or other anomalies, and the regional-scale monsoon circulations also distort, or swamp the idealised structure of the ITCZ. Cloudiness (and hence precipitation activity) can vary sharply over a period of 24hr. Day-to-day change of position is often small, but the zone migrates north & south through the course of a year, roughly in sympathy with the changing position of the sun.
thanks very much for that john, how about MEI?
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hi peeps, could someone explain what ITCZ and MEI stand for?
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What explains that melt however? I though conditions we're perfect in Siberia atm for snow growth>
its not a melt, its the annual siberian snowman making competition
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Sorry to resurrect this topic. On the whole I found the thread fascinating and thoughtful with strong attempts to analyse some of the evidence out there. I wanted to add it is unlikely a slackening of the NAC will immediately lower SST's due to the considerable body of warmth already held within the ocean. Apparently, from a theoretical point of view, a weakening of the current is more likely to have a direct effect on the jet stream. Cooling of the NAO would occur over at least a 10 year period which geologically is lightening fast. I have been speaking to a friend of mine who works in the field and there is awareness of a weakening but scientists are a very wary and conservative lot with reputation very much in mind. The preliminary data set is far too little to jump to the conclusion that the observed 'pause' in the NAD is due to anything other than natural variation in the cycles of this complex current. If the satelite imagery continues to show a stalling over the next few years and is combined with measurable cooling in the North Atlantic, then I think the stalling phenomenon will become an international issue. If I were a climatologist, the last thing I would want is to poke my head above the parapet only to be grouped with the likes of the self styled Lord or even Earl of Stirling and his crackpot ideas.
Regards,
Paul
hi paul, this subject has interested me also for a few years. whilst i agree with most of what you say, i was under the impression that the SSTs would not cool due to a pause/slowdown of the NAD, the result would be that the warmer tropical waters would not be transported towards us as they are now causing equatorial regions to get hotter and the uk and surrounding areas to get colder, in line with other areas on the same latitude. basically creating an even temperature gradient from the equator to the north pole
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How do they know it could be the coldest winter for 1000 years? Temperature measurements haven't even cover half that period so they can't say for definite. They could say the coldest winter since temperature measurements were first taken.
apparently they found an old roman thermometer near hadrians wall which read -35c. they keep it in a freezer at newcastle university so they dont lose the reading
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MY WINTER FORECAST:
its going to be a bit nippy outside!
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http://en.vedur.is/e...es/vatnajokull/
i realise this is kind of the wrong thread, but i just thought i'd get some opinions on this, as far as i'm aware, volcanic eruptions follow an earthquake swarm then increased tremor measurements. all the surrounding seismic stations are showing increased low frequency tremor- a sign of magma intrusion. i'm aware that it doesnt mean the volcano is about to blow but it is a very large increase in activity so it could be ready to pop! the reason i mentioned it here is because if it does go, it could have a major impact on our coming winter and most likely next years weather as well. definitely one worth watching!
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Latest from NOAA: Improvement?
doubtful, just hurricane igor churning up the surface waters. if you look at the sst's the atlantic seems to be cooling quite rapidly
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just spotted these http://www.betterwar...&language=en-GB they mite be of some help :unsure:
lol i think i'd rather fall over!
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I have a pair of Ice Cleats which slip over your boot sole and have small metal spikes, nothing like crampons, only a few mm long, bought them in Canada 11 years ago where everyone used them. Never needed them in this country until this winter. I was snowed in and needed to walk a mile up the lane to the main road to be collected by a colleague to get to work. My road is a fairly steep hill, the snow had been packed by 4x4's into a packed snow/sheet ice combination. I have 4 season walking boots but could not grip with them at all, litrally couldn't stand up on the road. I put these cleats on and strolled up the hill with no problems. I deliberately walked on the iciest sections to test them, excellent, no slipping at all.
I also used them walking around town as the pavements were a deathtrap. Again, no problem at all, and because the spikes are small you can use them on patches of path and road that have been cleared too. So in my experience well worth getting, although I have had to wait 10 years to have weather bad enough to use them!
They are hardly noticeable to use as the rubber used to hold them on just slips over the sole of your shoe. Didn't get any funny looks, more lile admiring ones! Would rather wear them then risk breaking my neck.
i never really considered buying ice cleats or shoe chains etc... i just bought a 4x4!
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currently 14.1degC outside, 1243degC in the living room.... i better call the fire brigade
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our house gets warm in the summer and cold in the winter. however i usually find i can offset this temperature difference if i put the heating on
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2010/11 Winter Weather Forecast
where did you find this forecast?
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ive got one of these for winter
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currently 16 degC here, nearest thing we'll get to a frost in the morning is a bowl of frosties!
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what does anyone think of the met office view?, considering everyone else is predicting a cold snap for this period!
UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Sep 2010 to Wednesday 13 Oct 2010:
It should remain fairly unsettled across many parts of the country during the latter part of September and into the beginning of October, with rain or showers at times but also some drier and brighter periods. It will also likely to be rather windy, especially in exposed areas. The rain is most likely to affect western Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest England, with perhaps the best chance of any drier conditions towards southern and eastern England. Temperatures should be, on the whole, above normal for the time of year across the country.
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Surface velocities are affected by weather. The main current is well below the surface. Compare the 200m velocities
The Gulf Stream is very much alive and well.(the surface flow may well have been disrupted by Hurricane Earl)
SSTs around Britain are perfectly normal - anyone living by the coast can check for themselves
Or maybe all Britain's swimmers and sailors fishermen and surfers are in on the conspiracy? btw if the Gulf Stream has stopped, it seems to be good news for Iceland which is currently experiencing a remarkable September heatwave and experiencing the highest temps it's had all year!
th 200m charts are actually irrelevent. the gulf stream runs from the surface, ( at which it is fastest and heavily wind influenced) down to around 1600m. if you check the velocity scale at the side of the charts, you will see it is a lot slower than the surface. the fact that you can see more of it, just means the velocities are more consistant at that depth. as someone else posted, it would be nice to have last years charts to compare it to, as it appears to be working fine, but we dont know what it looked like this time last year. time will tell i suppose but its worth keeping an eye on the NOAA site to see how things pan out over the next few months
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http://polar.ncep.no...-rundate=latest
- check out this link, then enter the run time forecast for july 1st 2010. now i'm no scientist and would love to believe that the story of the gulf stream shutting down was true, however, the gulf stream looks stronger now than it did in july when the uk was getting temps of 30 degrees or more! can anyone explain why this is? oh and change view to see the whole atlantic
The Gulf Stream is very much alive and well.
Or maybe all Britain's swimmers and sailors fishermen and surfers are in on the conspiracy? 
The North Atlantic Current Is Gone
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
sorry, i should have clarified that, yes i did mean similar to iceland as it is today and it was only a rough comparison