SMU

Got room for me in that spare log cabin Mike.... S......

Current sea ice Status at the end of July.... Not good reading..... S

tail end of Nov- OR if we get a firm date of the METO from Damien maybe the day before to ensure that there is clarity around the fact that if they turned out the same/similar forecast it couldnt be put across that the information from their forecast had been pulled into ours... S

indeed .... its only a matter of time... S

A cold polar vortex has already developed early this season in the Artic.... Here illustrated on the 12Z ECM for the Artic- day 3 There is some sub -10C air at the heart of that which is around 6-10 degrees cooler than normal.... S

Yes & Thats what all the climate models are currently pointing to with an associated warm pool in the atlantic- (Prob the intense WAA) S

Hi BFTP- Its all about time lag & Rate of change... SST's are generally considered to be a factor in effecting patterns down the line by 4-6 weeks, obviously the rate of change of anomalies 'should be proportional to the time span of impact onto prevailing patterns- However it is as not as clear as that otherwise LRF forecasting would just be about SST's & time lag- Forecasters must also consider other factors influencing the weather, they all have a part to play & these have propergation times - For instance another pick of the Winter forecasts was the sudden Stratospheric warming events that tied in with the Negative AO- Remember you have SST'a Influencing the weather, Stratospheric Temps & teleconnections - Some are cause, Some are effect- going into Winter its knowing which drives which... S

While invest 91L potters along the next wave is looking distinctly organised- I love this image- S

Yes Damien I will be working with Matt on this years forecast- S

Philip Edens Flow patterns for July- http://www.climate-uk.com/monpre/0607.htm Significant anomalies over Central Europe +VE Significant Anomlies to the West of the UK- Which was the troffing through July ( remember high pressure CANNOT retrograde across the jet) If there was ever an anomaly chart that epitomises what a Summer with continental plumes looks like this is it- If you believe this has anything to do with the azores high then I quote Nick F's post- I will be posting here the August flow pattern which will be more Normalised & to paste mine & Matt hugo's ( METCHECKs senior forecaster ) Winter forecast- other than that laters- Most people here have my Email if Req- S

John I was just highlighting the part of your post that I was referring to- It seems you are making more of this than need be- Why write about an Arguement- I politly tried to put a point across- at no point did I I try to put anyone down- If we have a difference of opinion thats fair enough- I dont want to Email the met office Id rather stay observing the people that I think are the leaders- Whilst I have acceptped your arguement you do seem to be ever so slightly tunnel visioned in as much as the Met-office can be the only organisation that can produce something with credibility- Like I said no offence to anyone- Im trying to be ( with everyone) quite conscious regarding the way msges come across & I didnt see it as being offensive- and for the record- I didnt say the Met office was bad- just thatwith some things I think there are better expertise elsewhere- Steve

how did my reply get before your post??? S

yes Kold- I saw you posting the other day Luckily I have a Proforecaster tag ( red) so I can see the pro exchanges as well away from th 'Weenie' as they put it eyes....- Good mates with Nineinchnails & a few others- Valuable assets- S Damien- they are poor in terms of accuracy- very poor infact- Pinch of saxa at this stage- Id be concerned if today was Nov 20- chill- weed smoking smiley... S

John in terms of overall Meteorology Certainly not- Their expertise in local & short term forecasting is Second to none- However I do feel that the field of Seasonal & LRF's in general is something that actually the Met office are NOT the Pioneers- I seem to remember the Met office abandoning their research into LRF's a number of Years back- & I 'Doubt' the investment is at a level that it was before- You can take this next paragraph how you wish- but for Some of Winter 03/04 but mainly All of 04/05 & 05/06 I spent hours- maybe overall days studying the LRF preperation/data that the Professionals in America use- to say they are in a different league is an understatement OR the met office actually fail to detail the level at which they study the global paterns- As for the NAO statistical model quoted Im sorry but that ISNT robust- & I havent seen any extracts from its Skill level/Accuracy- If the data was there somebody Over on the 'other' forum I work/post with would have published it & used it- Believe you me Im really not trying to come across condesending in any way ( and do make an appology to those I didnt mention last night) But I will give you an example on how this topic makes me feel- which you can probably relate to- When you see a post in Winter & Sometimes in the Summer slagging off the Met office for Inaccuracies you feel like & often do jump to their defence- this I guess Is because Partially yuu worked there & feel that a negative comment to them still encapsulates you, but as well you feel equipped to set straight any innaccuracy in the aforementioned statement- Alos John remember we are privvy to ALL of the met office monthly forecasts & to say they are generally perceived as poor would be fairly accurate- Well its a bit like that for me with details & forecasts on LRF's- Firstly I think it could & should be a seperate/Specialist part of the Meteorolgical Science, but I actually feel entirely equipped to stand up alongside the big boys and argue a case- and that does include the Metoffice- Just because I havent got a job at the Met office doesnt underqualify me in a field that actually the most qualified people arent the Met-office-but the ones investing a huge proportion of their time studying that small segment of forecasting- thats not to say its great by any stretch of the margin & something that will no doubt be discussed to the N'th degree in Oct/Nov- The crux of the Matter is if someone wants to be credible they put there arguement across and issue a forecast- THe challenge that will ALWAYS come back is whether the 'issuer' has put the background study in on All the Paramenters or whether they may have just dismissed them as 'noise' & just focussed on what they think is most important...... Anyway- best regards Steve

yes... its all coming back...... S

Hi Paul- I know theres no slur there... However ALL the Teleconnection tablets date back to the 50's... its just recently say the last 5 years that they have been pieced together- The advancements in this feild have taken seemingly leaps & bounds forwards stateside but remained rather static over here- In terms of the MET office you CANNOT just build a Winter forecast around the NAO- I think this is why this remains as their secondary Forecast rather than Primary- Again its the global picture & trying to pinpoint the zones of blocking at they ALL teleconnect to each other- However rather than trying to convince- We need to see the results of the summer forecasts & then see what drops out of that- Although using 3 parameters to measure each time rather than the 2 doesnt eliminate chance- just reduces it- you will never get to 95% on an Lrf- so Maybe it will always be a guess from your perspective..- 60/70 % maybe..... Regards Steve

Cheers Paul-....... How could I have ever forgot the Hastings massive..... As ever more names pop up at the bottom It kick starts the memory- Appologies to all- This years Winter forecasts will be generate huge speculation.... S

yes true that post looks worded wrong It wasnt meant to patronise anyone---although I think people know what I meant : re last years forecast- perhaps I should have added those & the ever speculative SP- We will all be back come december having the same conversations as last year- S

If humans are still 'Struggling' with seasonal forecasts then any computer generated output is very suspect because I doubt there is any Algorithum/Program that can interprete the factors & come up with a decent output- What I would say is look at the biggest global anomalies in terms of Temps- these have the biggest chance of standing the test of time- Anything Above or below in the range of 1C ignore- S

Hi Paul- There are only 3 people on this site who spend a considerable time preparing Winter Forecast- Ian brown- Whos methods are probably best commented on from himself- ME & GP- who both use the teleconnection signals & Re-analysis charts to formulate a forecast- After that there are a few- And I think they would generally Agree- ( the likes of TEITS & BFTP MAYBE WIB included ETC-) these posters will have an informed guess based on what they think will be the big players- Perhaps after this years data & last years forecasts these people will be presenting a more detailed outlook---- If you read the summer forecast I presented back in May I went overboard to give some measureable parameters- Rainfall, Temps & SLP anomalies- These look to be well on target- ESPECIALLY the significant +VE pressure for central Europe & this is certainly the way forwards- You are never going to pin significant events down- just Trends effecting the 3 Base paramenters- Trust me though its not a guess in terms of GUESS THE WEIGHT of the baby type thing- But an educated guess taking ALL THE DATA into consideration- The only data available at the mo for THIS winter is anomlous flow patterns for the Summer & SSTA's in the atlantic & Pacific/ ENSO- Best regards Steve

It is really a long way away however- QBO Isnt an SST driven phenomenon its an wind measured at 30Mb- however its heading towards pos ( westerly) which would work in our favour for the Winter- as it would desist from pepping the pacific jet which was partially responsible for those big negative heights over Greenland all winter long - as well as keeping America Very mild for the most part- http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index http://www.bbsr.edu/rpi/public/resedu/qbo.html THis Winter is going to be a hard one to predict- CURRENT snow cover at an all time Low- effecting the forcing - as will the ice cover- SSTA's all over the show- hinting at +ve NAO currently- remember the tripole........ Maunder minimum approaching, NAO phase SHOULD be heading Negative, QBO heading Westerly- PDO- no data accuracy for the Winter yet- AO- Sudden Stratospheric warming last winter assisted in BIG -AO patterns- & So on & so forth........ As for this comments on the behaviour/Arguing side- The big yin cannot really find fault unless really digging under the microscope- Ive read the latest Net weather rule & there isnt any breach of rules- The problem is- bottom line you have facts pointed out, Scientifically proven & then re-analysis graphs produced from GP using CDC ( NOAA) data on the one hand - and posts from the other corner with no actual back up- let common sense prevail- Whether the 'zone of sound thinking in the north' agree or not thats the reality- There arent many people that are going to challenge- because for some reason some people perhaps think they are not skilled enough to comment- Its very simple & being over complicated - However keeping this in the context of what we have discussed today & bearing in mind the fact that this is a Winter thread I will cease with comments on Summer until the 5th of August when philip Edens MSLP's arrive for July- Also then we can produce another re-analysis graph for June, July & June/july Combined- Lets reserve judgement till then... & of course the final judgement till Sep 06 when the final Stats & CETS are finalised for the Summer... regards Steve

ALL opinion are welcome- As for the pacific SST's they will have a big effect on this Winter- THese SST's play a part in determining the Strength of the Pacific jet- For information look for the teleconnection called the PDO if you are really interested- However of the 2 factors contributing to the pacific jet the bigger influence is the QBO- we need it to be Westerly rather than easterly this year to minimise its effects- S

Here is the direct link to the pubished ACCURATE FAX CHARTS- http://www.wetterzentrale.com/topkarten/tkfaxbraar.htm Not many people have it- but there is no arguing with an accurate reading of the fax.. S

Great factual post GP Notice the 500 HPA SLP anomaly to the NW atlantic is the exact same anomaly on the eastern us thread I linked to- Displaced azores high anyone!!!!! Cheers for wasting... Sorry spending that time to prepare it- John agreed this discussion is in the wrong thread - point taken- OON- Its not personnal its a direct discussion revolving around a specific point - Its nowt to do with Ego - I actually think that we under estimate peoples knowledge here- I think most people understand- Sure its gets scientific but we are studying the weather- which is a science- West I will have a read of your post later- cant do much here at work- S

Share with us these facts- - Thats facts not WIB fiction you cant use the skew as an arguement - otherwise you become a hypocrite when discussing CET as you always claim that the CET is a perfect reflection- and that has skewwed moments in it- as for July it will be more pronounced for Europe than June You didnt issue a summer forecast- Your patter was the same every week from May... the azores high is building its building- even posting up charts from t 300 of model runs to prove a point- Some forecast- As for your balloon theory sadly whilst it sounds nice its typically flawed by the fact that the Earth & its pressure zones doesnt revolve around the Azores- Your assumption that the azores is the starting point for Every high pressure cell to develop is again wrong- The basic principal of measuring observed pressure is to first take the standard SLP for that area- if the observed average is lower over a given time- in this instance a month then that area has had a WEAKER influence over the surrounding areas than what it has on the corresponding normal Average- You then look to the area with the biggest anomaly & this is the area with MORE of a say in the surrounding area- If you go back to the SLP maps- http://www.climate-uk.com/monpre/0606.htm You will see that the azores belt has a higher pressure than that of Central Europe which means yes it does control some of our weather, however because the observed pressure is lower than usual its influences are less- I think anyone reading this thread with an ounce of common sense knows it- but most people have given up posting their thoughts & disagreeing with you because they are fed up with it- much as I am- Im so fed with this arguement that I will call it a day & leave people to decide- You can have opinions on forthcoming weather- Fine- but distorting facts as you do repetativly here wasts everyones time- especially newer people who may think that what you write has any element of Truth- which sadly it doesnt- FACT- AZORES weaker than usual- To back this up- Lower than usual pressure observed over Azores- ( PHILIP EDEN) Dryer air ( LOW RH) observed since june- to the point that people have commented on several times- this DOESNT happen with the azores high- you get high RH levels & humid air- Philip edens quote for June- Doesnt mention Azores does he...... No Westerly Weather- Brought about by a common flat azores ridge- Azores displaced North & west- Source PRO MET http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=101157 I could go On............. But I wont- Lets see your FACTS west - NOT your opinions- finally quote.... You can have a slightly weaker pressure because you have a much bigger Azores Er no..... Its not a quilt cover- Higher pressure= Larger DAM levels = Larger area exerted by said high pressure- Thats why also we havent seen those dark red colours on the 500 MB charts so far over the azores region.... S